Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018

Re:Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since Janua... by rmrfstar on Thursday November 05, 2020 @12:08PM (#24999871)

To my eye, it looks like there is a plausible argument that BTC price innovations have a positive loading on Fed balance sheet growth.

Can you link raw data?

At this point, the marginal buyer is a leveraged investment firm. So, the hypothesis is not a crazy one.

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Re:Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since Janua... by microtherion on Thursday November 05, 2020 @12:09PM (#24999883)

I'm afraid I don't have the raw data.

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Re:Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since Janua... by rmrfstar on Thursday November 05, 2020 @07:17PM (#25003576)

Both are FRED series (CBBTCUSD and WALCL). Rolling one year correlations of one week deltas:

    0.3 +-+----+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+-+   
          +      +      +      +      +      A     +      +      +      +      +   
          |                                 A                            AA    |   
      0.2 +-+                                 AA                        AAAAAAA+   
          |                         AAA  AA AAA                        AA      |   
      0.1 +-+                   AAAAA AA  AA    A                     A      +-+   
          |                   AAAAA   AAA         A                  AA        |   
          |                    AA                A                             |   
        0 +-+                 A                 AA AA AAA                    +-+   
          |                                      A   AA A                      |   
          |  A                                      AA   AAA        A          |   
     -0.1 +A+       AAA     AA                             A        A        +-+   
          |AAA      A  AAAAA                               AAAA                |   
          |A  A           A                                                    |   
     -0.2 A-+ AAAAA        A                                  AAA AA         +-+   
          A     AA AA                                          AAAAA           |   
     -0.3 +-+     AA                                                         +-+   
          |                                                         A          |   
          +      +      +      +      +      +     +      +      +      +      +   
     -0.4 +-+----+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+-+   
          2017/1/1                      2018/11/25                     2020/10/11

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Re:Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since Janua... by microtherion on Thursday November 05, 2020 @08:47PM (#25004072)

So ELI5 what I am seeing here. Aren't those correlations all over the place?

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Re:Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since Janua... by rmrfstar on Thursday November 05, 2020 @11:14PM (#25004833)

Yup, that's my takeaway. You see the same thing when you use future Fed moves as well (which is one way of checking that this graph isn't missing out on some announcement effect, as assets lag announcements).

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