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Re:The West has failed – US and Europe have made a mess of h... by Kiro on Monday November 02, 2020 @06:55AM (#24967091)
I don't agree with your conclusion but Neil Ferguson has indeed been wrong. His model predicted 85,000 deaths in Sweden by now. I don't understand why the Imperial models are still taken seriously.
Re:The West has failed – US and Europe have made a mess of h... by acdha on Monday November 02, 2020 @10:05AM (#24968830)
This is a popular right-wing trope but I’ve never seen a source despite the reports being available and the full model being on GitHub. Can you provide a citation for that exact claim?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...

https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model

Re:The West has failed – US and Europe have made a mess of h... by Kiro on Monday November 02, 2020 @11:20AM (#24969739)
In Sweden it's a left-wing trope (the right wants lockdown and masks while the left supports the lax approach so the model has mostly received criticism from the left) and I believed it but you're completely right, so I apologize:

https://twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/13077606155456061...

> Thanks for confirming: Neil Ferguson’s Imperial model did not point to 85,000 Covid deaths for Sweden; another researcher did. A mean time-varying reproduction number Rt estimate in March is not a prediction of deaths nor is it a model for predicting them.

Re:The West has failed – US and Europe have made a mess of h... by acdha on Monday November 02, 2020 @11:27AM (#24969816)
Ah, I should have been more specific that I only follow this in the English-language media so I’ve seen it newspapers in the UK or Australia (the US discourse doesn’t mention this much).
Re:The West has failed – US and Europe have made a mess of h... by singemonkey on Monday November 02, 2020 @07:27AM (#24967371)
Please stop parroting this kind of misinformation.