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A comment on US may not be back to normal until 2022, Fauci says. Parent comment

Re:US may not be back to normal until 2022, Fauci says by sharken on Thursday October 29, 2020 @10:49AM (#24931058)
Not sure what kind of response you expect here, but I’m ready to go back to the old ways today.

Incidently, the way New York and Sweden have tackled the virus have been the most consistent. There was a large first wave, but no second wave (measured in deaths).

On the other end of the spectrum there are countries such as Poland with no initial first wave back in March. But it seems you can only go for so long before the virus turns up.

But it is very hard to do a good response on all counts when you have to do it for 18 months (time from first outbreak until virus is expected).

Links: Poland https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/poland/

New York https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

Sweden https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

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Re:US may not be back to normal until 2022, Fauci says by kgwgk on Thursday October 29, 2020 @11:01AM (#24931202)
> the way New York and Sweden

It's funny, the proponents of "the Swedish way" say that they are nothing like each other.

Of course in reality Sweden has had "strong recommendations" in place for months, and they are getting stricter.

https://www.thelocal.se/20201029/new-coronavirus-measures-fo...

"According to the new guidelines, which are outlined on the Public Health Agency's website and are effective immediately, everyone in Stockholm, Västra Götaland and Östergötland are strongly urged to:

"Refrain from being in indoor environments such as shops, shopping centres, museums, libraries, swimming pools and gyms. Necessary visits to for example grocery stores and pharmacies are ok.

"Refrain from attending, for example, meetings, concerts, performances, sports training, matches and competitions. This advisory does not apply to sports training for children born 2005 or later.

"If possible avoid physical contact with people other than those you live with. According to the Public Health Agency, this includes for example attending or throwing a party or similar social gatherings."

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Re:US may not be back to normal until 2022, Fauci says by tpmx on Thursday October 29, 2020 @11:12AM (#24931358)
These were announced two hours ago and are by far the harshest we've had so far in Sweden. They also only cover 43% of the population. (Edit: 57%, also counting the Skåne region's similar recommendations)
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Re:US may not be back to normal until 2022, Fauci says by exDM69 on Thursday October 29, 2020 @11:10AM (#24931328)
> New York and Sweden have tackled the virus have been the most consistent. There was a large first wave, but no second wave (measured in deaths).

Sweden reported all time high new case numbers today. They have also enacted stricter restrictions in recent days than they've done so far.

The death numbers haven't risen yet, but hospitalizations are on the way up.

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Re:US may not be back to normal until 2022, Fauci says by akiselev on Thursday October 29, 2020 @12:14PM (#24932063)
> On the other end of the spectrum there are countries such as Poland with no initial first wave back in March. But it seems you can only go for so long before the virus turns up.

Incidentally, the Marshall Islands just had their first case (and from my arcgis dashboard it looks like a second one). If one of the world's most remote islands with a population of under 60,000 can get it within a year, there's little hope to keep it out of anywhere.

How long until tribes like the Sentinelese [1] get coronavirus? (Thankfully many of these tribes are very hostile and it's illegal to even attempt to make contact precisely because of previous transmission during contact)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese

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Re:US may not be back to normal until 2022, Fauci says by SomeoneFromCA on Thursday October 29, 2020 @11:08AM (#24931302)
First of all, Sweden is not done yet, at all. Secondly, every time I look at Sweden's deaths vs cases graph , I get this odd feeling, that it cannot be possible, that their peek deaths is before the peak of the cases. I do not know if I can trust their current stats.
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Re:US may not be back to normal until 2022, Fauci says by nradov on Thursday October 29, 2020 @01:02PM (#24932604)
You really can't trust case numbers from almost any country due to widespread differences in testing. Most asymptomatic cases never get tested or counted. Only death statistics are somewhat reliable and comparable.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out...

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Re:US may not be back to normal until 2022, Fauci says by tpmx on Thursday October 29, 2020 @11:19AM (#24931451)
Swedish skeptic of "the Tegnell/Swedish approach" here: I trust the numbers, but there's a delay in reporting the deaths - it takes at least 10 days to get ~95% of them. There are multiple checks/tests at various stages and it takes time.

Takeaway: Don't trust the latest week's death numbers from Sweden, but trust the ones before that.

The elder care homes etc have gotten a lot better at protecting the people living there.

Having said that, I'm just waiting for things to explode again - and it just takes a few elder care homes to get infected for lots of people to die.

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