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Re:Electoral College Decision Tree by bryanlarsen on Friday October 23, 2020 @12:22PM (#24871123)
AFAICT the polls had a systemic error AND the 538 models included the possibility of a systemic error. It's really the only way that they could have given Trump a 28% chance in the first place.

Of course, the polls themselves also acknowledge the chance of a systemic error. They're reported similar to +/- 2% 19 times out of 20. They make no claim that the 19/20 of multiple polls are not correlated.

Re:Electoral College Decision Tree by dragonwriter on Friday October 23, 2020 @12:52PM (#24871437)
> AFAICT the polls had a systemic error AND the 538 models included the possibility of a systemic error.

Well, 538 model took into account historical evidence that election differences from polling averages between states are strongly correlated rather than independent; arguably, that's an effect that exists in part because such deviations are in part due to systemic errors (though the particular systemic errors may differ from cycle to cycle) in the polling, rather than pure sampling error.

Re:Electoral College Decision Tree by rayiner on Friday October 23, 2020 @12:36PM (#24871260)
The +/- in a given poll is measurement error derived from the sample size. They don’t account for systemic error.
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree by function_seven on Friday October 23, 2020 @02:01PM (#24872125)
Right, but 538 did account for such an error in coming up with their ~75/25% outcome chances. Had polling errors just been random, the overall prediction would have been more like 95/5%.

But their key insight is that polling errors are often correlated, and not just statistical sampling errors that can randomly offset in either direction.

Re:Electoral College Decision Tree by dragonwriter on Friday October 23, 2020 @03:53PM (#24873240)
> The +/- in a given poll is measurement error derived from the sample size. They don’t account for systemic error.

Sure, but even the worst poll-based prediction outfit isn't just aggregating poll results and using the uncertainty based on sample size to determine the probabilities of different outcomes.

Pretty much all of them are using some model derived from the past relationships of polls to election results, which will, to a greater or lesser extent, capture systemic polling error that is not unique to the current cycle in the model.

Re:Electoral College Decision Tree by bryanlarsen on Friday October 23, 2020 @12:39PM (#24871304)
19/20 does, though.
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree by rayiner on Friday October 23, 2020 @01:21PM (#24871739)
What is 19/20?
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree by bryanlarsen on Friday October 23, 2020 @07:29PM (#24875499)
Polls are reported with fine print similar to "+/- 2%, 19 times out of 20".