Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by dragonwriter on Friday October 23, 2020 @03:53PM
(#24873240)
> The +/- in a given poll is measurement error derived from the sample size. They don’t account for systemic error.
Sure, but even the worst poll-based prediction outfit isn't just aggregating poll results and using the uncertainty based on sample size to determine the probabilities of different outcomes.
Pretty much all of them are using some model derived from the past relationships of polls to election results, which will, to a greater or lesser extent, capture systemic polling error that is not unique to the current cycle in the model.
Sure, but even the worst poll-based prediction outfit isn't just aggregating poll results and using the uncertainty based on sample size to determine the probabilities of different outcomes.
Pretty much all of them are using some model derived from the past relationships of polls to election results, which will, to a greater or lesser extent, capture systemic polling error that is not unique to the current cycle in the model.