Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by function_seven on Friday October 23, 2020 @02:01PM
(#24872125)
Right, but 538 did account for such an error in coming up with their ~75/25% outcome chances. Had polling errors just been random, the overall prediction would have been more like 95/5%.
But their key insight is that polling errors are often correlated, and not just statistical sampling errors that can randomly offset in either direction.
But their key insight is that polling errors are often correlated, and not just statistical sampling errors that can randomly offset in either direction.