This sure as heck isn't happening in my market... all year long I've listened to a group of potential buyers tell me they are going to wait because the bottom is going to fall out any day now ... every piece of data I have shows that the opposite is happening - we have more buyers than physical homes here and prices have been on a steady upward trajectory for the past five years. With interest rates at historic lows, there's no reason to believe buyers aren't going to continue to acquire homes.
Now - in other markets? Maybe there will be a correction, but that's actually bound to help my market and likely others too, as people move from expensive areas to less expensive areas. SFO / LA / PDX / SEA aren't going to collapse overnight.
GDP is down. Bigly.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP (click on the 1yr timeframe to see it better).
where's the evidence of this so far?
How do you make the case that the risk (probability of loss multiplied by magnitude of loss) doesn't exceed the expected yield?
I think hedge fund manager in original title is saying he's uncomfortable with the risk/yield equation right now.
I agree with your last statement: the amount of risk isn't realizing a corresponding risk premium in the returns available. Yet, you must invest somewhere. That's your job (as an institutional investor). A lot of structural financial heartache ahead.
What about DeFi?