News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by Karunamon on Wednesday October 14, 2020 @08:58PM (#24783592)
That's an angle I hadn't even considered, but I'm surprised Twitter didn't. SV social media companies, of all the organizations in the world, should understand the implications of a Streisanding.

If they had just left it alone, maybe attached the standard "this might be false" disclaimer, it would likely have passed as yet another partisan thing, but now they've gone and infused it with a bunch of power it didn't have prior.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by runarberg on Thursday October 15, 2020 @12:18AM (#24784893)
In the grand scheme of things, the Pandora's box Twitter and Facebook might have opened today seems minute next to the Pandora’s box the Bush administration opened after the 9-11 attacks, the homeland security and all.

I think after the election we will have completely forgotten about this conduct while we still have to live with the spying on innocent people, non-sense travel restriction, and human-rights violating immigration system for years to come.

Making a scene of this decision just seems like stirring a storm inside a teacup, all the while we are experiencing a hurricane from the patriot act.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by robertlagrant on Thursday October 15, 2020 @06:50AM (#24787073)
How does the immigration system violate human rights?
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jlokier on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:55AM (#24788685)
We can't discuss human rights in absolute worldwide terms while looking at immigration systems, because there's no universally agreed set of human rights to discuss, as far as I know.

But we can discuss violations of what it is widely regarded should be universal human rights.

Here's a list of some that I consider should be universal human rights, which are often violated by immigration systems:

- The right of young children to be with their parents

- The right of spouses to be together and start a family

- The right to get married

- The right to legal due process, including appeals and representation

- The right to work for essentials for survival such as food, shelter and medicine

- The right to enter private transactions for things like shelter

- The right to access the prevailing currency system (basic banking in the modern world)

- The right to leave an abusive job, without enduring serious harm caused by the state if you do

- The right to leave an abusive relationship, without enduring serious harm caused by the state if you do

- The right to stay in the country where you were born, raised and have never known anywhere else

- The right to vote in the country where you were born and raised

- The right to protection and safety when talking to the police about a crime where you are a victim or witness

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by runarberg on Thursday October 15, 2020 @11:41AM (#24789758)
> because there's no universally agreed set of human rights to discuss

This statement might be technically true in legal terms (I am not a lawyer so I don’t know), but there is the Universal Declaration of Human Rights[1], ratified by all 193 members of the United Nations. That is a good place to start. Additionally the UN has more in depth declarations (e.g. Convention on the Rights of the Child[2]; which my native country of Iceland came within 5 minutes of breaking a month ago but the children were safely hid from the authorities who were going to unjustly deport them).

1: https://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/ind...

2: https://www.ohchr.org/EN/ProfessionalInterest/Pages/CRC.aspx

---

PS. I truly encourage everyone to read the Declaration of Human Rights[1] in their native language. It is such a beautiful read and gives you a sense of shared humanity. It is not that long, and has over 500 translations. In my native language the translation is really clear and easy to follow.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jlokier on Thursday October 15, 2020 @12:22PM (#24790341)
I agree with you, I think it's beautiful too. I'm a strong advocate for universal human rights - and for improving on the set of rights that we agree on.

> my native country of Iceland came within 5 minutes of breaking a month ago but the children were safely hid from the authorities who were going to unjustly deport them

A fine example answer to "How does the immigration system violate human rights?"

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by bipson on Thursday October 15, 2020 @08:03AM (#24787665)
not GP, but most immigration systems violate human rights all the time by treating people as if they were people without these rights - or not people at all. Most of the time the legal leeway is based upon them not being citizens (yet). What is the path to immigration in your country?

It begins with a legal dilemma: E.g. asylum is a human right, but how to determine who is eligible? In a timely manner that is. Especially if you have thousands of applicants and (almost) no documents. How do you house people in the meantime? What rights do they have?

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by CaoCao on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:24AM (#24788358)
"asylum is a human right" "determine who is eligible"

Well, if it's a human right, then everyone. But it's not, which is why you have this twisted logic.

There is no right to freely cross borders.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by esarbe on Friday October 16, 2020 @05:08AM (#24799004)
Of course there's a right to freely cross borders. Borders are just imaginary lines on a map.

Just as any bird has the "right" to go wherever it wants and any other animal hat the right to go wherever it wants, I have the natural right to go wherever I want.

I'm a free human. As I'm born on this planet, it's my right to go wherever I want to go on this planet.

That governments want to take away that right of mine, that liberty, is just one example of how governments are using the tyranny of power to force people to their will.

That governments are just the thugs with the best weapons is just Realpolitik. This still doesn't invalidate my right to freely cross borders. I never signed away these rights.

Though I might be stupid to try to exercise it.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by manigandham on Friday October 16, 2020 @06:42PM (#24805708)
Borders are just as real as the governments and societies that give you those rights. If you don't recognize them then you don't have rights either.

Remember your rights are my responsibility. They don't work in a vacuum nor can you make up your own rules.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jbjohns on Friday October 16, 2020 @07:21PM (#24805949)
But your "right to go wherever I want to on this planet" must already have limits, right? Do you lock the doors on your house/car?
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by esarbe on Tuesday October 20, 2020 @10:31AM (#24837724)
I'm not going to tell you where I live. But... no, I don't actually.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jbjohns on Wednesday October 21, 2020 @06:44AM (#24846495)
Then I can guess a few places you don't live. :)
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jlokier on Thursday October 15, 2020 @10:18AM (#24788896)
Asylum is a human right, that doesn't mean everyone can successfully claim it!

It means everyone has a right to put in a claim to asylum and have it assessed properly by the authorities.

> There is no right to freely cross borders.

In some circumstances, yes there is.

If there's a war in country A, and non-combatants flee to neighbouring country B out of genuine necessity for safety, yes that border crossing is widely regarded as a human right.

It derives from the basic right to life.

Doesn't mean country B will respect it.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by raxxorrax on Thursday October 15, 2020 @10:58AM (#24789265)
Most countries do, although there is a difference between immigrant and refugee. Immigrant can be you Saudi Prince with billions in the bank. Somehow they never have problems of not being let in anywhere.

Immigrant have no right to just live in another country, refugees fleeing war have that right as long as the danger remains.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by bipson on Friday October 16, 2020 @07:18AM (#24799639)
Then there is no twisted logic.

Asylum is a human right https://ijrcenter.org/refugee-law/ https://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/ Article 14

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by skrowl on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:07AM (#24788182)
Some people believe that open borders to all countries are a human right.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by dionian on Thursday October 15, 2020 @10:16AM (#24788876)
I wonder what they use to justify this belief. I dont think it has a specific historical precedent
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by runarberg on Thursday October 15, 2020 @12:24PM (#24790372)
I’m not a historian but I would have thought that open borders were the norm not that long ago. I would guess that immigration restrictions wouldn’t have started to be commonplace until at least industrialization.

But regardless if that is right or not, siblings have pointed out that open borders are in fact common-place in many parts of the world today, e.g. EU and USA’s internal borders are open. And (as sibling has also pointed out) historic precedent or existing examples are not necessary to justify any belief. Abolishing slavery did not need a historic precedent, neither did gay rights, and theoretically neither does open borders.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by pclmulqdq on Friday October 16, 2020 @12:39AM (#24797526)
Many of the immigration restrictions in america started around the time the first welfare programs were introduced. Before that, it was a bit of a free for all. I don't know if the same pattern holds anywhere else, but I'm suspicious that might not be a coincidence.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jlokier on Thursday October 15, 2020 @10:20AM (#24788918)
Isn't every human right without historical precedent at first, until it becomes established?

Doesn't that always happen step by step, with "early adopters" arguing on grounds of morality and other arguments, until eventually enough people start to believe something has a high moral value and should be raised to the level of a human right, enshrined in law?

Those who would argue for open borders as a human right are like "early adopters" of that idea.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by raxxorrax on Thursday October 15, 2020 @11:03AM (#24789312)
There would be consequences for that. For example you would need a universal world wide social safety net.

We would all fit easily on Iceland, but most would die of dehydration or starve in a short amount of time.

I could be an early adopter of "cheese for everyone", but I would need to get a lot of cheese first to make that happen.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jlokier on Thursday October 15, 2020 @12:12PM (#24790198)
World wide safety net: Open borders isn't the same thing as everyone having the same safety net in whichever destination they travel to. Though related, they are distinct issues that can exist independently.

That said a world wide safety net would be a good thing to advocate for on moral grounds, no?

The EU has open borders for all EU citizens, and for the most part it's faring ok. There has not been a Europe-wide social safety net crisis as a result of this freedom, and crucially for this argument: there isn't an EU wide social safety net. It has freedom of movement without a universal safety net.

The USA's states are effectively countries. All USA citizens have open borders to travel between states in the USA. For the most part, it's faring ok and there has not been a USA-wide social safety net crisis caused by this freedom either.

Iceland and cheese for everyone: That sounds like what's called the slippery slope fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slippery_slope

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jbjohns on Friday October 16, 2020 @07:25PM (#24805981)
But I believe most participating countries in the EU have pretty strong social safety nets. And the US' social safety net system is at the federal level. How would a world safety net be financed?
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jki275 on Saturday October 17, 2020 @07:25AM (#24809212)
US states are not countries.

That was set with our Constitution, and thoroughly tested in the 1860s. The idea has never really been seriously tested again since.

It’s a quite different setup from the EU.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by felipemnoa on Wednesday October 14, 2020 @11:55PM (#24784763)
>>but now they've gone and infused it with a bunch of power it didn't have prior.

I don't know. I think the people that are going to believe these kinds of stories at face value would have found this story on their own regardless. It is not like the NY Post is some obscure paper. It may make this story stronger with those that are already inclined to believe this stuff.

I think by this time people have already made their decision on whom they are going to vote and they will use any story that agrees with their decision as proof that they are right.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by ibeckermayer on Thursday October 15, 2020 @01:29AM (#24785208)
What about the story should I not be taking at face value? I just read the email, seems pretty clearcut that the Burisma bigshot asked Hunter to "use your influence" to fight off the "general prosecutor". Ultimately Biden did get the prosecutor general fired by withholding foreign aid, and bragged about it on camera.

IIRC Trump was impeached for supposedly threatening to withhold foreign aid from Ukraine unless they investigated this incident.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by Cederfjard on Thursday October 15, 2020 @02:01AM (#24785347)
Well first off, is the email real? Even if it is real, do we know if Hunter Biden actually used "his influence"? What indications are there that Hunter Biden's supposed actions were critical to Shokin's firing anyway?

Several governments and other organizations were concerned because Shokin wasn't investigating Burisma properly, having laid the investigation he inherited from his predecessor dormant. The demand to fire him wasn't something that Joe Biden came up with himself out of the blue, and at the end of the day it was most likely to Burisma's detriment.

It's not an impeachable offense to threaten to withhold foreign aid for valid reasons that further the interests of the United States. It was (and should be) an impeachable offense to illegally withhold aid that was already meant to have been delivered, and to do so for personal gain.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by skrowl on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:09AM (#24788196)
Not even the Biden campaign disputes the emails being real.

They just said they checked his calendar and could find no such meeting, then later backpedaled and said they couldn't discount the possibly that it happened and just wasn't on the official schedule.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by aksss on Thursday October 15, 2020 @02:37AM (#24785528)
Well let’s keep in mind Biden has denied any such interaction with Burisma, has denied any wrongdoing in his son’s appointment, has denied any implication of graft. Despite information that at least warrants some hard questioning. Now this comes out and Biden’s team has not denied its legitimacy. And this from a candidate who’s last bid for President tanked because of his own admitted lying and plagiarizing. Judge it how you like but I don’t think you can extend Biden a benefit of the doubt — quite the opposite should be the default position, probably for any politician.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by AzzieElbab on Thursday October 15, 2020 @08:44AM (#24787978)
So is this where he steps down and Harris steps up? Let’s be honest, upcoming elections are going to be 100% about Trump. It doesn’t matter who his opponent is. Attacking Biden is pointless, and Twitters reaction was self destructive blunder that will cost them no matter who wins in November
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jacobolus on Thursday October 15, 2020 @02:08AM (#24785383)
The part where a sloppily fabricated email was put onto a bogus laptop (probably by foreign intelligence agents), and then “coincidentally” made its way right back to Rudy Giuliani (who was at the time neck deep in the effort to extort a foreign leader into announcing a fake investigation into the same non-scandal, for which the President has already been impeached). Giuliani passed the emails via Steve Bannon (Trump’s former campaign manager and “Chief Strategist”, since indicted for mail fraud and money laundering) to a hack “journalist” (former Hannity producer) at the NY Post who did zero fact checking, because no credible journalist or news organization would ever touch such a flimsy story. Someone in the chain made a PDF of these fake emails a year ago but then sat on it, before releasing it in the last 3 weeks before an election, without releasing enough forensic evidence for any third party to do even the most basic check.

The computer repair guy’s story is just comically implausible. https://www.thedailybeast.com/man-who-reportedly-gave-hunter...

You want a real corruption scandal? How about the $10 million bribe paid to the Trump campaign by a state-owned Egyptian bank right before the 2016 election (and immediately after candidate Trump met privately with President Sisi). Which the DOJ never finished investigating because Trump-appointed officials instructed them not to. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/14/politics/trump-campaign-donat...

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by AnthonyMouse on Thursday October 15, 2020 @08:41AM (#24787960)
None of the things you're describing have any effect on the plausibility of the story because they're all exactly what you would expect to happen either way. If a Trump supporter became aware of this sort of thing, he would bring it to someone like Giuliani, who would bring it to someone like Bannon and so on. Then they would sit on it until now because that's standard procedure in politics, because damaging information has more impact when released just before the election.

It tells you that the story is being maneuvered for political advantage, because obviously. It tells you nothing at all about whether or not it's true.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jacobolus on Thursday October 15, 2020 @02:47PM (#24792273)
To anyone credulous enough to believe any part of this story, I have a bridge to sell you. You should probably stop watching Fox or reading Facebook and the NY Post for your “news”. These same characters have been selling various similar stories for the last 4+ years, and every one has turned out to be complete bullshit when given the tiniest bit of scrutiny.

What this story demonstrates more than anything is that Giuliani and Trump are getting pathetically desperate, because it is looking likely they will lose and both are facing significant criminal liability once they aren’t shielded by the Barr DOJ’s position that a GOP president enjoys absolute impunity and by the pardon power (which has already been corruptly used to let other Trump henchmen off the hook for crimes committed in his name).

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by zpeti on Thursday October 15, 2020 @02:19AM (#24785439)
You do realise the Biden campaign has made a statement not denying the legitimacy of the email?
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by CamperBob2 on Thursday October 15, 2020 @03:28AM (#24785868)
He also hasn't denied hunting deer out of season at Bear's Bend State Park, Coyote Corners, Maine. Your point?
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by zpeti on Thursday October 15, 2020 @04:10AM (#24786095)
To make a statement, and not deny it, is different not making statements about random facts.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jrumbut on Thursday October 15, 2020 @08:26AM (#24787846)
Perhaps they did understand, or perhaps they do but the decision was made by someone who didn't.

If Twitter et al really want to be public resources they need transparency in their decision making and possibly independent oversight. If they want to just be regular businesses they need to take responsibility for the bullshit they propogate.

Straddling these two lanes hasn't been working for society and it seems like regulation or breakups are close to inevitable.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by dionian on Thursday October 15, 2020 @10:14AM (#24788865)
Clearly their partisan activism got the best of them. No longer can they merely label trump's tweets as misinfo, they have to start full-on censoring. They were probably trying to find a way to call this hate speech or racism to justify it.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by dkdk8283 on Thursday October 15, 2020 @11:55AM (#24789953)
I worked at a large media company and we held internal meetings essentially telling people how to vote. The media we promoted was aligned with this: all extreme left wing. It’s just as bad as trump. We’ve all lost.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by JMTQp8lwXL on Thursday October 15, 2020 @12:01AM (#24784796)
The safest bet is it changes nobody's opinion. If you're left leaning, you've drowned out Trump's repeatedly false statements --or become numb to them-- no October surprise will have an effect on you. If you're right leaning, this furthers your perspective that Clinton and Deep State are up to no good. Nobody comes across content like this without an existing world view to inspect it, and the lines have been drawn a long time ago.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by labster on Thursday October 15, 2020 @12:42AM (#24785016)
Right, but this is what makes the situation so dangerous in the U.S. If no one’s mind is changed over events like these, then we’re at a point where there are essentially two citizenries which both see the other side as toxic. We’re slouching towards civil war. Most people don’t want war, but do see the other side as harmful, so we have to try hard to avoid it.

Maybe we’re all looking at it wrong, maybe a civil war increases shareholder value for Facebook? Because the way they went about this is another escalation. Nothing drives engagement like military engagements, right?

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by rayiner on Thursday October 15, 2020 @01:02AM (#24785110)
I had assumed it was just that people were consuming two entirely different media streams. But I’ve had conversations recently where college educated people won’t even concede basic factual points left out of a media narrative. Like, things that can be established just by looking at some publicly available document, which I have given them. They keep just circling back to the narrative. It’s scary.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by qqqwerty on Thursday October 15, 2020 @05:43AM (#24786701)
It is a "bad faith" problem. Bad faith arguments are made on all sides of the political spectrum, but anecdotally, it feels like one side is a little more fact challenged and relies on them fairly heavily. And the amount of arguments being made in bad faith means it is often more productive to just ignore or dismiss the other sides arguments outright.

Here is a good example. Right wing media likes to point at the homelessness problem in CA and claim that that is proof that Democrats are bad at governing. The homeless issue is a fact, supported by data. And CA being a Democratic state is also a fact supported by data. But pointing to both those facts and claiming it as proof that Democrats==bad is a bad faith argument. Blue states have higher GDP, higher levels of education attainment, and lower poverty rates than red states. And homelessness is a weird metric to use as it is partially a by product of regional economic success, where a good job market coupled with an overheated housing market results in an increasing number of people willing to tough it out on the streets or in their cars. I could make a similarly bad faith argument, and point out that West Virginia has the highest number of opioid overdoses per capita, therefore Republicans==bad. But I don't need to do that because the statistics that most reasonable people would agree to use as an arbiter of state level success are already in agreement with my position.

As you can see from the length of the above paragraph. These bad faith arguments require a decent amount of effort and/or knowledge to effectively counter. So as we move into this post-fact world, can you really blame people for just sticking to the 'narratives'?

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by AnthonyMouse on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:04AM (#24788148)
> anecdotally, it feels like one side is a little more fact challenged and relies on them fairly heavily.

This is just filter bubbles and various cognitive biases. Stories from any cable news network are regularly full of major holes, which you overlook when they're on "your side" because you're not invested in finding fault with them.

Stephen Colbert's perception of reality has a known liberal bias.

> And homelessness is a weird metric to use as it is partially a by product of regional economic success, where a good job market coupled with an overheated housing market results in an increasing number of people willing to tough it out on the streets or in their cars.

But the overheated housing market is the criticism, and is completely valid. California is correctly criticized for letting housing costs get so bad that people who are making twice the US median income are nonetheless sleeping in their cars.

And California may be the worst, but it is actually a problem which is more severe in blue states than red states on average. Housing costs more in NYC than Austin, and more in Chicago than Charlotte, despite having a lower median income.

So sticking to the "narratives" doesn't get you there. It causes you to ignore the problems in your own back yard. You have to look at the facts, even when they're inconvenient, and admit it when it's your team making a mistake.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by _qulr on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:13AM (#24788242)
> This is just filter bubbles and various cognitive biases. Stories from any cable news network are regularly full of major holes, which you overlook when they're on "your side" because you're not invested in finding fault with them.

Everyone is wrong about some facts. Surely I'm wrong about some facts, as I'm not omniscient.

However, this does not imply that everyone is equally wrong about the facts. Some people are clearly more often wrong about facts than others.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by AnthonyMouse on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:20AM (#24788313)
> Some people are clearly more often wrong about facts than others.

When half the country disagrees with the other half as to who that is, I'm not sure "clearly" is the right word to use.

And if you don't entertain the possibility that it could be you, it will be you.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by _qulr on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:27AM (#24788386)
> When half the country disagrees with the other half

Nearly 48% of the electorate did not vote for either major party candidate. The two parties are both very much minorities. There aren't simply two sides to every story.

There's actually significant ideological diversity within each of the two major parties, though there are certainly attempts by powerful people on both sides to stamp out any dissent.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by AnthonyMouse on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:33AM (#24788466)
There is a distinct anti-correlation between the people who think CNN is full of liars and the people who think Fox is full of liars. The truth is that they both are, but that is the real minority opinion.

And assuming that everybody who didn't show up to vote isn't associated with a tribe is just... you can do better than that.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by _qulr on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:42AM (#24788556)
> And assuming that everybody who didn't show up to vote isn't associated with a tribe is just... you can do better than that.

That's not a thing I said.

I also don't assume that everyone who did show up to vote is associated with a tribe. A lot of people just plug their noses while filling out the ballots for the lesser evil. The enthusiastic party voters are a subdivision of the minorities. Indeed many votes are more defined by what they're against than what they're for.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by AnthonyMouse on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:54AM (#24788677)
> That's not a thing I said.

Then it's not obvious what you meant to imply by bringing up the voter turnout rate.

> I also don't assume that everyone who did show up to vote is associated with a tribe. A lot of people just plug their noses while filling out the ballots for the lesser evil.

But none of this is really addressing the original point, which is that the red tribe and the blue tribe are of approximately equal size, and their members are not at all in agreement as to who the liars are.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by _qulr on Thursday October 15, 2020 @10:10AM (#24788824)
My point is that from the perspective of someone outside of both tribes, there's no reason why one has to accept the conclusion that each of those tribes is equally enlightened or ignorant. I realize of course that they disagree with each other on a number of issues, but... so what? I'm not evaluating them as a member.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by AnthonyMouse on Thursday October 15, 2020 @10:54AM (#24789231)
To a member of one of the tribes, that tribe's beliefs are obviously the correct ones. To an outside observer, you have to evaluate the individual beliefs.

Is the best policy to combat climate change a carbon tax which is refunded to the population, or a WPA-style "Green New Deal"? According to most economists it's the former, according to AOC it's the latter.

School choice programs have a strong record of giving low income families with children in failing public schools a better alternative, but public school teachers unions are a large Democratic voting block and major campaign donors, so they have a perverse incentive to oppose such programs even when they're succeeding, e.g. by shutting down the popular one in D.C.

Immigration has a multifaceted economic effect. High skill immigration tends to bring domestic economic benefits, because the immigrants spend much of the money in the domestic economy and pay more in taxes than they consume in services. Low skill immigration tends to have the opposite effect, and to suppress wages for unskilled labor or increase unskilled domestic unemployment. If you combine the two the total effect is positive, because the former effect is larger. But the Democratic party has a stronger incentive to promote the latter, because unskilled immigrants from socialist-leaning countries are more likely to vote for Democrats, so they regularly conflate the two and adopt policies that promote the latter, even if it harms the domestic population.

You can undoubtedly find some Republican to argue that all immigration is bad and some Democrat to argue that a carbon tax would be a good answer to climate change, but there remains much wrongness on both sides. The filter bubbles show people who live on one side or the other the reasons why some subset of the other side is wrong and not the reasons why some subset of their side is wrong. It creates an impression that isn't true.

Even the premise is basically nonsense. If one Republican says we should have a carbon tax and another says that climate change is a hoax, does that mean Republicans are right because we should have a carbon tax or wrong because it is real? We know which one will be on CNN. If one Democrat says we should have a carbon tax and another says that climate change will cause human extinction in twelve years without a Green New Deal, does that mean Democrats are right because we should have a carbon tax or wrong because humans won't go extinct if we don't immediately raise taxes to 75% and spend the money on government windmills? You know which one will be on Fox.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by _qulr on Thursday October 15, 2020 @11:19AM (#24789489)
I'm not even talking about policy. I'm talking about basic factual matters.

Start with something simple: the in-person attendance and TV viewership of the President's inauguration. This is completely irrelevant to policy and has no long-term implications whatsoever. Yet somehow it became a major "partisan" controversy, when it was never controversial in the past for Presidents of any party. Of course crowd size estimation isn't a perfect science, but this particular controversy had nothing to do with science. And if you're going to tell me the problem there was "both sides", I'll have to disagree.

This is just one example of extreme reality denial. What makes it notable is again that the dispute was of no particular importance in the grand scheme, and yet reality was still vehemently denied.

I mean, this kind of shit comes right out of George Orwell, where the test of party loyalty is how you can make yourself believe things that are obviously false.

What was the attendance at Lincoln's inauguration? FDR's? Who knows. Who cares! The only person who truly cared was Donald J. Trump himself. But Republicans have been primed to take anything critical of what he says as a partisan attack by the "liberal media". Every fact, no matter how trivial, is now a political controversy.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by AnthonyMouse on Thursday October 15, 2020 @05:02PM (#24793895)
You're supplying an instance of Republicans denying reality, but nobody was claiming that they never did that.

The issue is that they both do it. For example, the left made quite a kerfuffle about "Trump" separating families at the border, but the truth is the separation policy was preexisting and what changed was only how many detentions there were when he started to detain everyone crossing the border illegally. They also like to play word games, like saying "no existing policy of separating all families crossing the border illegally" which is intentionally misleading when what changed wasn't the separation of those in detention but rather the detention of everyone crossing the border illegally.

Which isn't even to say that family separation was a good policy, but the persistent implication that it was a policy established under Trump is ridiculous and politically-motivated.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by _qulr on Thursday October 15, 2020 @05:37PM (#24794349)
> The issue is that they both do it.

No, that's not the issue. That's never been the issue. As I said much earlier:

"Everyone is wrong about some facts." "However, this does not imply that everyone is equally wrong about the facts."

There's neither time nor space here to numerically compare mistruths of the 2 major parties. I would just like to see acknowledgment of the general principle that 2 groups of people can be ignorant in some ways while having very different levels of ignorance. For example, compare high school children and elementary school children. Generally speaking, high schoolers have a lot more knowledge than grade schoolers, and yet high schoolers still have quite a bit of ignorance. The 2 groups are not at all equal. This is a very common situation, and "both sides are wrong about things" is not a useful description of that situation.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by rayiner on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:51AM (#24788646)
It’s less dramatic than you might think. For example, both Republicans (82%) and Democrats (91%) trust scientists: https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2019/08/02/trust-and-mis... (Even that question is politically loaded. “Science” is a spectrum, and as the reproducibility crisis shows, they’re often wrong. Conservatives by definition are more likely to be skeptical of people who say they have new insights into age-old problems, while liberals are by definition always looking for new approaches and don’t mind much when they don’t pan out. So this 10 point gap isn’t either bad or good, necessarily.)

Where you see gaps are in discrete issues that are highly politicized, such as climate change and COVID. In those areas, valid differences in policy approaches get muddled together with differences in facts.

Left-leaning journalist Matt Yglesias takes this on in the context of climate change in his new book: https://www.aei.org/economics/the-case-for-one-billion-ameri...

He explains that according to experts, climate change will be “like really bad, but not that bad” such that the solution is to take steps to address it while continuing to grow the economy. He explains that the people who think we’re all going to die from climate change (folks on his own side) are probably wrong.

> Taking those problems seriously means investing in solving them, not telling ourselves, “Well, we’re just going to whittle the population down, or somehow everybody’s going to go live in a shack in a hillside there.”

> Still, it is a fundamental difference in worldview. Some people are very driven by a pastoralist notion that we can conserve our way to solving the problem. A billion Americans is not about that. It is about a bigger, richer, more dynamic society.

The facts around climate change are complicated and when it trickles down into the political sphere it tends to get cast in binary terms, because that’s the nature of public political debate. The reality is nuanced: https://reason.com/2019/04/05/rep-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-i...

> According the report: "Under the no-policy baseline scenario, temperature rises by 3.66°C by 2100, resulting in a global gross domestic product (GDP) loss of 2.6%," as opposed to 0.3 percent under the 1.5°C scenario and 0.5 percent under the 2°C scenario. In the baseline 3.66°C projection, the estimate of future GDP losses ranged from a low of 0.5 percent to a high of 8.2 percent. In other words, if humanity does nothing whatsoever to abate greenhouse gas emissions, the worst-case scenario is that global GDP in 2100 would be 8.2 percent lower than it would otherwise be.

There is a legitimate argument that a Green New Deal type solutions that involve a WWII-style economic mobilization would be worse for the economy than just letting climate change happen, at least based on the current science. (Note the EU’s Green Deal has a price tag that’s one-sixth of the price tag for the Green New Deal as proposed.)

Of course by the time this filters into the public debate, it gets reduced to “climate change isn’t happening” versus “we have a 12 year expiration date.” And on both sides, the understanding of the actual science case be very shallow. I know college-educated people who say they won’t have kids because of climate change. This is either pretextual, or pretty misinformed about what scientists think will happen. A lot of people don’t really care about the facts, they just repeat what people on “their team” say.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by qqqwerty on Thursday October 15, 2020 @03:59PM (#24793100)
The IPCC report received plenty of criticism. The report summary left out some of the more alarming findings [1] (which were conveniently not addressed in your reason article) and there was valid criticism about the consensus model that was used[2].

In terms of bad faith/good faith arguments. One can argue in good faith, that the large amounts of uncertainty associated with the climate models means that the worst case outcomes can not be definitively ruled out and therefore humanity should plan for the worst case scenario as a precautionary measure. And based on this argument, made in good faith, and also based on the fact that it has been extremely difficult to get the necessary global political buy-in to actually make any progress on the problem, one could justify being extremely alarmist about the problem.

I will give you credit though, for attempting to make a good faith argument for why climate change alarmism might be overblown. But I think you fail to acknowledge the large uncertainties involved with climate modeling, and you are also ignoring some of the more alarming risks that were well with in the realm of possibility based on the models. And I also think your economic argument is just flat out wrong. WWII mobilization was followed by some of the most prosperous decades in US history.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/08/world-... [2] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-climate-repor...

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by labster on Thursday October 15, 2020 @07:31PM (#24795610)
The large uncertainties in climate modeling have only been getting smaller, as we've made progress on estimating cloud feedback lately. Fundamentally, there is a lot of guesswork (aka parameterizations) but these are all tuned with as much data as we can get. Projections made in 1980 and 1990 have been pretty accurate so far, and show the warming world we live in now, so it should count for something.

But despite all of the complexities in the science, I think people have missed the human element. The hundreds of thousands of people that have already died from climate change, such as: the increase in tropical cyclones, the crop failures which sparked the Syrian civil war, the mass migration therefrom which has sparked the rise of nativism and right populism in Western democracies, expansion of harmful insects into environments that used to be too cold to support them that cause fires or famines, and the water shortages worldwide which add economic stress to the people. None of these things are directly attributable to climate change, but collectively they set a story that we're already in the middle of a climate disaster.

Will we all die? No. But the mass death and destruction is already around us. And if we keep burning fossil fuels, it can only get worse.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jahaja on Thursday October 15, 2020 @11:31AM (#24789645)
I think it's telling that conservatives seem to have shifted from sowing doubt regarding the very existence of climate change to now "there's no point, it's already too late!". The primary goal of status-quo remains.

> would be worse for the economy than just letting climate change happen, at least based on the current science

Uhm, I don't think peoples primary concern about climate change is that it may hurt the economy somewhat?

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by _qulr on Thursday October 15, 2020 @08:34AM (#24787902)
> homelessness is a weird metric to use

Homeless is not a weird metric to use. It's absolutely a failure of government in the worst possible way. Democrats deserve all the criticism in the world for tolerating that situation.

Still, you're correct that there is bad faith: the bad faith is that Republicans care about homelessness, which they generally do not either.

Democrats deserve criticism for the failures of Democratic-controlled governments, and Republicans deserve criticism for the failures of Republican-controlled governments. In my opinion, they're both bad. Are they "equally bad"? Maybe not, but I won't accept that homelessness is a weird metric. There's a lot of bad faith is ignoring one's own faults.

[dead]
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by _qulr on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:15AM (#24788256)
> And these bleeding heart liberals

This doesn't really give the impression of actually deeply caring about homelessness...

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by rufusroflpunch on Thursday October 15, 2020 @07:48AM (#24787560)
I think people need to come to terms with the fact that the USA isn’t immutable and no government lasts forever. A divorce is coming and it’s better for everyone if it’s peaceful when it happens.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by _qulr on Thursday October 15, 2020 @08:38AM (#24787935)
> I think people need to come to terms with the fact that the USA isn’t immutable and no government lasts forever.

I agree with this. The Constitution is outdated in the extreme. We're long overdue for something new.

> A divorce is coming and it’s better for everyone if it’s peaceful when it happens.

A divorce? I don't think that's going to work. Who gets custody of Wisconsin?

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by no-s on Thursday October 15, 2020 @07:15PM (#24795471)
>>A divorce? I don't think that's going to work. Who gets custody of Wisconsin?

Some warlord from Michigan?

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by rufusroflpunch on Thursday October 15, 2020 @11:56AM (#24789976)
How about the Republic of Wisconsin? The divorce doesn’t need to end with only two parties.
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by whoevercares on Thursday October 15, 2020 @07:50AM (#24787572)
Is Civil war possible at all in US’s military system today?
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by ufmace on Thursday October 15, 2020 @10:32AM (#24789020)
There might be something like a civil war, but it won't look anything at all like the last one. Don't look for two armies marching on fields against each other. Do look for dozens of shadowy groups practicing guerilla warfare against each other and the state, with actions gradually escalating in intensity.

You can make a pretty decent argument that this is already happening.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jcadam on Thursday October 15, 2020 @10:54AM (#24789223)
Can't wait for the 2AM knock on my door, and finding an armed group on my front porch demanding to know how I voted in the last election (I'm surprised people are still putting campaign signs on their lawns or stickers on their cars).
Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by ufmace on Thursday October 15, 2020 @12:46PM (#24790666)
Oh yeah. More likely they'd come based on you going to an event they don't like, or having a hobby they don't like. And they probably won't be interested in any claims that you weren't there or didn't do that or aren't who they're looking for.

Actual police mostly have better procedures for this sort of thing, but still sometimes get the wrong guy or go to the wrong address. Somehow I doubt such groups will do better than them.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by hef19898 on Thursday October 15, 2020 @08:30AM (#24787877)
From an external position, I'd say theoretically yes. It is enough when a political rift goes through society and also the military. This rift could lead to failure of command coehesion, split of the military and ultimately infighting.

Which could, if you ask me, be a risk in case trump wins but it is rather clear that the election was fradulent (not saying it will be, but let's assume for the arguments sake it was). In which case the military would have to decide which "president" to follow, or to follow congress, or the senate, or someone else. Which could tear the military appart, let alone to speak of the national guard.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by jcadam on Thursday October 15, 2020 @09:56AM (#24788693)
As a former Army officer, I completely agree with the CJCS recent statement that the military will play no role in the election process.

Anything short of a clear landslide for one of the two candidates is going to result in a seriously tense/chaotic situation. Best to hunker down and hope the civilians sort their shit out before giving an order you know is going to result in a lot of resentment and formerly good, dependable people being locked up for insubordination (best case), or entire organizations dissolving in an orgy of mutiny, violence, and/or desertion (worst case).

As far as a split goes, it wouldn't be "clean." Unlike in the 19th century, individual units aren't constituted from people drawn from the same geographic area. There's a centralized bureaucracy managing personnel, so most units really are a cultural melting pot made up of people from all over the country. So I don't see the military splitting, I see it falling apart.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by hef19898 on Thursday October 15, 2020 @10:13AM (#24788852)
I was affraid that people with actual US military experience would share that sentiment. Also the international impact that would have. just thinking about a situation in which the US military would have any real role in who the next President will be gives me the chills. And it kind of would force every country with a US military presence to basically pick a side. Scary thought.

I just hope that the outcome will be chrystal clear, hopefully democrat. And that if it is not unit cohesion is strong enough to prevent the US forces from falling apart.

Re:Facebook, Twitter block the NY Post from posting by refurb on Thursday October 15, 2020 @04:19AM (#24786144)
I agree on those firmly in either camp. But there is a big chunk of voters who aren't firmly in either camp. That's why you have Bush Jr. winning some years, Obama others and then Trump.