There might be something like a civil war, but it won't look anything at all like the last one. Don't look for two armies marching on fields against each other. Do look for dozens of shadowy groups practicing guerilla warfare against each other and the state, with actions gradually escalating in intensity.

You can make a pretty decent argument that this is already happening.

Can't wait for the 2AM knock on my door, and finding an armed group on my front porch demanding to know how I voted in the last election (I'm surprised people are still putting campaign signs on their lawns or stickers on their cars).

Oh yeah. More likely they'd come based on you going to an event they don't like, or having a hobby they don't like. And they probably won't be interested in any claims that you weren't there or didn't do that or aren't who they're looking for.

Actual police mostly have better procedures for this sort of thing, but still sometimes get the wrong guy or go to the wrong address. Somehow I doubt such groups will do better than them.

From an external position, I'd say theoretically yes. It is enough when a political rift goes through society and also the military. This rift could lead to failure of command coehesion, split of the military and ultimately infighting.

Which could, if you ask me, be a risk in case trump wins but it is rather clear that the election was fradulent (not saying it will be, but let's assume for the arguments sake it was). In which case the military would have to decide which "president" to follow, or to follow congress, or the senate, or someone else. Which could tear the military appart, let alone to speak of the national guard.

As a former Army officer, I completely agree with the CJCS recent statement that the military will play no role in the election process.

Anything short of a clear landslide for one of the two candidates is going to result in a seriously tense/chaotic situation. Best to hunker down and hope the civilians sort their shit out before giving an order you know is going to result in a lot of resentment and formerly good, dependable people being locked up for insubordination (best case), or entire organizations dissolving in an orgy of mutiny, violence, and/or desertion (worst case).

As far as a split goes, it wouldn't be "clean." Unlike in the 19th century, individual units aren't constituted from people drawn from the same geographic area. There's a centralized bureaucracy managing personnel, so most units really are a cultural melting pot made up of people from all over the country. So I don't see the military splitting, I see it falling apart.

I was affraid that people with actual US military experience would share that sentiment. Also the international impact that would have. just thinking about a situation in which the US military would have any real role in who the next President will be gives me the chills. And it kind of would force every country with a US military presence to basically pick a side. Scary thought.

I just hope that the outcome will be chrystal clear, hopefully democrat. And that if it is not unit cohesion is strong enough to prevent the US forces from falling apart.