1. Many Mainland Chinese people have the view that Taiwan is illegally occupied ever since the KMT fled there at the end of the civil war. It's as if the Confederates fled to Puerto Rico or Hawaii, still exist to this day, and claim to be the legitimate ruler of all of the US.
Although nowadays fewer people care about this, since China has surpassed Taiwan economically. But it's still a significant portion who cares. So many, that if the CCP lets Taiwan go, CCP's legitimacy will be called into question, and many people will revolt. If it's up to these people, China would have launched an invasion a decade ago.
2. Geographically, Taiwan is a military significant piece of land. The US can set up base there and blockade all China's naval traffic. China wants to prevent this.
Per capita basis Taiwan is much better, but overall PRC is a lot more stronger.
> So many, that if the CCP lets Taiwan go, many people will revolt.
CCP has the gift of being able to control the narrative though, can't they make it seem like a win-win situation for them by doing it as some grand gesture and peace through largesse of their heart.
> Geographically, Taiwan is a military significant piece of land. The US can set up base there and blockade all China's naval traffic.
While I can see the importance of Taiwan as an opening between Japan and Philippines. Can't an enemy power use Japan, SK and Philippines to still blockade from Pacific.
Also, friendly relations with an independent Taiwan might mean it remains in PRC's sphere of influence
Yes China can control the narrative to some extent, and historically they did. For example all of outer Mongolia was ceded to Russia. If you check Taiwan's official claims, you will see that it's much bigger than the People's Republic of China today.
The CCP has a history of ceding land (that is strategically not too valuable) in order to setup peace. I'm guessing that the military significance is the biggest reason why they're not giving up Taiwan.
> The CCP has a history of ceding land (that is strategically not too valuable) in order to setup peace.
This doesn't explain their border differences with India though. For all I can understand only a small part of the western border seems of strategic importance.
This article by the Asia Research Institute (set up by Kishore Mahbubani) has some background on the diplomatic history of this issue: https://ari.nus.edu.sg/app-essay-kanti-bajpai
Access to the water. The border China would like to control would put the watershed from glaciers on China’s side.
If 'Mississippi' was somehow broken away from the US, the US would spend quite a lot of effort to get it back, even though Mississippi is and of itself, not important.
If one takes a historical view that Taiwan, Tibet, Manchu, S. China Sea 'belong to China' then they will push hard to grab and maintain them.
I agree that pride/hubris (more saving face) is indeed a significant component, but Taiwan has huge strategic military importance. Taiwan declaring itself independent and allowing (say) the US to set up a large military presence there would be unacceptable for China.
The political significance of an independant Taiwan (or not) is 100x any tactical advantage of geography.
S. China sea is actually more important because it's international water, and territory that overlaps with other countries.
Worth noting that the PRC has never controlled Taiwan.
Much in the same way they pressure other countries to ignore the abuses of Uighurs and Tibetans.
1. Convince the DPP to officially declare independence. Not just unofficially flirting with the idea, but officially still claiming all of China.
2. After 1 has happened, convince UN members to recognize Taiwan.
From a legal process point of view, I think 2 cannot happen until 1 is done.
Taiwan is de facto an independent country in every way you could possibly conceive, including having de jure diplomatic relations with a few countries and de facto relations with many more. In international relations, actions matter more than words, and in Taiwan's case, those actions indicate that it's an independent country.
The only reason official declarations stating the obvious haven't been made is due to the threats and coercion conducted by the PRC. The presence of those threats makes the absence of the declarations literally meaningless. It's sort of like being forced to sign a contract under duress.
And legally, how do you recognize a country that does not officially recognize itself? The Taiwanese constitution still says it is the Republic of China. The current legal situation is that, by recognizing Taiwan, you are officially saying that the Taiwanese government is the legit ruler of the mainland.