Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by syedkarim on Friday September 18, 2020 @07:41PM
(#24522955)
Does Trump have enough time to get a new justice nominated and confirmed?
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Realistically, they have until the last day of the current congress which runs until January 3rd, 2021. The Senate has 37 working days remaining in 2020. It would be an amazing feat if they manage to do it, but you bet if only as an animating fight for the party faithful who are historically depressed right now, they're going to try.
Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by CobrastanJorji on Friday September 18, 2020 @08:28PM
(#24523412)
Justice Harold Hitz Burton is tied for the record: 0 days. There was less than 24 hours between nomination and confirmation. He was at least the 10th to achieve this feat. McConnell will require exactly as many days as he deems most politically expedient.
Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by erichurkman on Friday September 18, 2020 @08:09PM
(#24523198)
The cynic in me says they will leave the seat open through the election, with full intent of filling it in the lame duck sessions, to keep it as a drive for GOP votes. "Don't let the Democrats fill the seat!"
How would it be an amazing feat? Trump already has a list of candidates, and all it takes is 50 Senators to say yes (plus Pence breaking a tie if they somehow don't get 51). There's no requirement to allow any but the most perfunctory of floor debates, and the filibuster has been eliminated for SCOTUS justices.
Guaranteed McConnell will ram this through with plenty of time to spare.
He could have it done by Wednesday if he wants. Just pick the youngest and most ideological from the Federalist society's list and give them an up/down vote and the President can sign off in no time.
Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by erichurkman on Friday September 18, 2020 @08:10PM
(#24523219)
Trump's campaign has been blasting SCOTUS picks to their email list for weeks. From the latest one:
> Did you hear the news? President Trump has released his shortlist for candidates for the Supreme Court. Here is a sneak preview of a few of the names on the list:
> Senator Tom Cotton
> Senator Josh Hawley
> Senator Ted Cruz
> And more…
Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by jessaustin on Friday September 18, 2020 @08:48PM
(#24523631)
Wow Hawley and Cotton have risen meteorically. I would have half-expected Hawley's crypto-unionist populism to have kept him off such a list, but he'd surely be better than the others mentioned. Somehow, he ran for MO Attorney General without promising to further brutalize minorities. Within two years he was in the Senate and now within two more years he would be on the Supreme Court? Wow.
They only need 50 votes and the Republican Senate will 100% confirm somebody, especially since they have the lame duck session too.
Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by AdamJacobMuller on Friday September 18, 2020 @07:47PM
(#24523016)
Time? absolutely. It only takes an hour or two.
Will they do it? maybe? probably.
Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by throwaway6000 on Friday September 18, 2020 @07:54PM
(#24523077)
The Republicans will absolutely do it.
This is their chance to mold our country's sociopolitical landscape for decades.
Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by AdamJacobMuller on Friday September 18, 2020 @08:12PM
(#24523231)
I think it hinges on their (Trump, really) confidence on winning in November. No reason to do it now if you're sure you're going to win. No reason to worry about possible repercussions in the form of lost voters if you're sure you're going to lose.
Depress your opponents base and deny them a divisive issue to campaign on.
It would be a perfect game theory move to do it, no merit in holding out.
Trump's chances of winning will drastically increase with another Republican Supreme Court Justice.
The election will likely be contested. When some strategically selected counties in Florida start anulling mail-in votes the Republicans will be glad to have a person who will dispute in their favour.
What lost votes? Trump's base is going to eat this up. They would only be mad if he didn't ram through an appointment as fast as possible.
Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by throwaway6000 on Friday September 18, 2020 @08:20PM
(#24523332)
exactly. the search for a replacement SCOTUS is going to further unite the republicans for Trump.
[dead]
Mitch McConnell in 2016: “The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president."
I'm curious what his argument would be for this being different.
They just won't both bother responding. I remember Adam Schiff's arguments during the senate part of the impeachment procedure - "Is there any doubt he did it?", there was no real response to this. Mitt Romney is now the radical amongst the congressional GOP.
The type of politicians who kicked the chair out from under their own leader during watergate are probably rare amongst democrats and non-existent bar one (https://youtu.be/qS-aFfJe20U) amongst these republicans.
The president has an R next to his name this time.
I can assure you that had Harry Reid been in charge of the Senate in 2016 he’d have pushed through a nominee as well.
His argument will be 'LOL sucks to be you.'
The justification is the president and senate were controlled by different parties. You can already see that spin online. Also no joke, his argument was based on something Joe Biden said as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee in 1992.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/mcconne...
Surely the combination of the current date, the COVID difficulties, and Democratic opposition mean it's not 100%.
With the filibuster gone there’s not much Democrats can do to stop it if they can muster 50 votes.
I still feel like that may not be easy. Doesn't take many Republicans (4?) that are skeptical about Trump being re-elected, and open to tit-for-tat to stall or halt this.
If you are thinking about Senator Susan "Concerned" Collins and etc., you are pining for fool's gold. They make token noise and then comply.
Are there 4 that are facing an uncertain re-election campaign right now?
Republican money tends to be generally effective. The threat of withholding the same will certainly work to bring them more in line. Also, https://www.axios.com/trump-ginsburg-supreme-court-10bf5f37-... .
Somewhat interesting in this space:
"Already, Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine have said that there is not enough time to confirm someone before November. Collins told The New York Times earlier this month that she'd oppose seating a nominee in a lame-duck session if Joe Biden wins the White House."[1]
So a fairly razor thin opportunity for McConnell.
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/18/politics/congress-fight-rgb-s...
The thinnest razor delivers the sharpest cuts, apparently: https://www.axios.com/mitt-romney-trump-supreme-court-pick-8... .
This is the Republicans' opportunity to stack the court overwhelmingly in their favor and guarantee the end of progressive and liberal influence in Constitutional law for a generation. The repeal of everything from the ACA and gay marriage to Roe V. Wade is on the table.
They're not going to turn that down just to mess with Trump, this is way bigger than Trump.
That is compelling, but I wouldn't overlook tit-for-tat. Senators live to be re-elected, and there are lots of close races in this exact timeframe. Four "we will take a dive" promises could make a difference.
Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by lovehashbrowns on Friday September 18, 2020 @08:39PM
(#24523546)
I don't think you understand how all-in the republican party is on trump.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/24/trumps-appr...
Also see: The most recent RNC.
"About four-in-ten Americans (38%) approve of Trump’s job performance"
I assume that is well below the percentage of Americans that call themselves Republican. Not fully understanding your point. The language in your link seems to confirm it's a serious issue for Trump.
Re:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died
by lovehashbrowns on Friday September 18, 2020 @08:51PM
(#24523663)
That depends entirely on the votes that happen this year. The point is, those republicans aren't going to risk losing almost all their guaranteed votes that come from republican voters.
Refusing to vote for a Trump appointee would kill their reelection, not the other way around.