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Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by Blammar on Sunday September 13, 2020 @10:30PM (#24466174)
No one has seemed to notice the following two things:

"To pave the way for the deal, SoftBank reversed an earlier decision to strip out an internet-of-things business from Arm and transfer it to a new company under its control. That would have stripped Arm of what was meant to be the high-growth engine that would power it into a 5G-connected future. One person said that SoftBank made the decision because it would have put it in conflict with commitments made to the U.K. over Arm, which were agreed at the time of the 2016 deal to appease the government." (from https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2020/09/nvidia-reportedly-to... )

and

"The transaction does not include Arm’s IoT Services Group." (nvidia news.)

which appear to contradict each other.

I'm not sure about the significance of this. I would have guessed Nvidia would have wanted the IoT group to remain.

Also, to first order, when a company issues stock to purchase another corporation, that cost is essentially "free" since the value of the corporation increases.

In other words, Nvidia is essentially paying $12 billion in cash for ARM up front, and that's all. (The extra $5B in cash or stock depends on financial performance of ARM, and thus is a second-order effect.)

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by manquer on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:26AM (#24468281)
It is not "free", it means current shareholders of Nvidia are paying for the remaining money. Their stock is diluted on fresh issue of shares.[1]

The $12B comes from Nvidia the company, the remaining money comes from Nvidia's shareholders directly.

[1] Only if the valuation of ARM is "worth it" the fresh issue of shares will not cost the current shareholders anything. This is rarely the case , if Nvida overvalued(or less likely undervalued) the deal then current shareholders are giving more than they got for it.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by bananaface on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:55AM (#24468436)
And note that the $12B is also owned by Nvidia's shareholders (they own the company which owns the cash), so they're paying for that too.

It's just different forms of shareholder assets being traded for other assets, by the shareholders (or rather, their majority vote).

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by manquer on Monday September 14, 2020 @06:57AM (#24468750)
Effectively all of it is funded by the shareholders who "own" the corporation.

In the current example if the cash is coming from a debt instrument is it not bank funding it now?

it is typically about who is fronting the money now, it could be your bank making loans, or from cash reserves you have, fresh stock issue, selling another asset, or even the target's bank as in the case of LBO.

The shareholders always end up paying for it eventually in some form or other. Differentiating it by the current source helps understand the deal structure and risks better.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by pottertheotter on Monday September 14, 2020 @03:32PM (#24474148)
It's still the shareholders even if debt financing is used. The shareholders, through the company, have to pay off the debt. It increases the risk of bankruptcy.

When doing a deal, it comes down to price and source of funds. Changing either can drastically change how good or bad the deal is.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by bananaface on Monday September 14, 2020 @07:22AM (#24468893)
Absolutely. I was just noting it for anyone reading.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by finiteloops on Monday September 14, 2020 @12:43PM (#24472215)
To me, "paying for" and "diluted" connotates negative emotions.

Cash paid in this instance is treated no different than cash in their normal operating expenses. If either generates profits in line with their current expected returns, the stock price stays the same, and everyone is indifferent to the transaction.

Same goes for stock issuance. If the expectation of the use of proceeds from the issuance are in line with the company's current expected returns, everyone is indifferent.

Your statement is still true, and the stock market jumped today on the news, so I feel my connotation is misplaced.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by pc86 on Monday September 14, 2020 @02:12PM (#24473239)
> If either generates profits in line with their current expected returns, the stock price stays the same

This is a pretty naive depiction of Wall Street.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by haten on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:36AM (#24468329)
Yes
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by walterbell on Sunday September 13, 2020 @11:00PM (#24466321)
There were two separate IoT business units: Platform (https://pelion.com) and Data (https://www.treasuredata.com/). The Platform unit fits the Segars post-acquisition comment about end-to-end IoT software architecture, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24465005

> One person close to the talks said that Nvidia would make commitments to the UK government over Arm’s future in Britain, where opposition politicians have recently insisted that any potential deal must safeguard British jobs.

So the deal has already been influenced by one regulator. That should encourage other regulators.

> SoftBank will remain committed to Arm’s long-term success through its ownership stake in NVIDIA, expected to be under 10 percent.

Why is this stake necessary?

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by oxfordmale on Monday September 14, 2020 @03:23AM (#24467702)
The UK government never learns. Kraft made similar promises when buying Cadbury regarding jobs,but quietly reneged on them over time. The Kraft CEO was asked to show up before an UK parliament committee, but of course declined, and that was the end of the story.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by djmobley on Monday September 14, 2020 @04:16AM (#24467946)
Except the Cadbury-Kraft debacle led to major reforms in how the UK regulates foreign takeovers.

In the case of Arm, the guarantees provided back in 2016 were legally binding, which is why we’re here, four years and another acquisition later, with Nvidia now eager to demonstrate it is standing by those commitments.

Maybe in this particular instance they did learn something?

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by bencollier49 on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:18AM (#24468245)
They should learn to prevent the sale, period. Promises to retain some jobs (for ever? What happens if profits decline? What happens if the core tech is sold and ARM becomes a shell? Do the rules still apply?) address a tiny fraction of the problems presented by the sale of one of our core national tech companies.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by tomalpha on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:25AM (#24468278)
I would have liked to see ARM remain owned in the UK. I think it's proven itself capable of innovation and organic growth on its own.

But how can we evaluate the whether that will continue?

What if ARM is not sold, and then (for whatever reason) stagnates, doesn't innovate, gets overtaken in some way, and enters gradual decline?

Perhaps that's unlikely, but prevent the sale, period is feels too absolute.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by djmobley on Monday September 14, 2020 @06:20AM (#24468569)
Who is to say ARM was “owned in the UK” prior to the SoftBank acquisition?

Prior to that it was a publicly traded company, presumably with a diverse array of international shareholders.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by bencollier49 on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:35AM (#24468324)
That feels like giving up, to me. We should have the confidence that British industry can development and flourish on its own merits without being sold off to foreign interests.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by fluffything on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:49AM (#24468400)
What have confidence when we can just look at ARM financials?

There are more ARM chips sold each year than those of all its competitors together. Yet ARM's revenue is 300 million $.

Why? Because ARM lives from the ISA royalties, and their revenue on the cores they license is actually small.

With RISC-V on the rise, and west sanctions against china, RISC-V competition against ARM will only increase, and it is very hard to compete against something that's good / better and has lower costs (RISC-V royalties are "free").

I really have no idea why NVIDIA would adquire ARM. If they want a world-class CPU team for the data-center, ARM isn't that (Graviton, Apple Silicon, Fujitsu, etc. are built and designed by better teams). ARM cores are used by Qualcom and Samsung, but these aren't world-class and get beaten every gen by Apple Silicon. If they want ARM royalties, that's high risk business, and very low reward (there is little money to make there).

The only ok-ish cores ARM makes are embedded low-power cores (not mobile, but truly IoT < 1W embedded). Hard to imagine that an architecture like Volta or Ampere that perform well at 200-400W would perform well at the <1W envelope. No mobile phone in the world uses nvidia accelerators, and mobile phones are "supercomputers" when compared with the kind of devices ARM is "ok-ish" at.

So none of this makes sense to me, except if NVIDIA would want to "license" GPUs with ARM cores to IoT and low power devices like ARM does, but that sounds extremely far-fetched, because nvidia is super-far away from a product there, and also because the margins for those products are very very thin, and nvidia tends to like 40-60% margins. You just can have those when buying IoT chips for 0.12$. Its also hard to sell a GPU to these use cases because they often don't need it.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by als0 on Monday September 14, 2020 @09:26AM (#24469839)
> If they want a world-class CPU team for the data-center, ARM isn't that (Graviton

Graviton uses Neoverse CPU cores, which are designed by ARM. To say that ARM is not a world-class CPU team is unfair. Especially as Ampere just announced an 80 core datacenter SoC using Neoverse cores.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by Followerer on Monday September 14, 2020 @10:21AM (#24470457)
The main source of revenue for ARM is, by far, royalties. Licenses are paid once, royalties are paid by unit shipped. And they shipped billions last year.

Revenue is not $300, we don't know what ARM's revenue is because it hasn't been published since 2016. And back then it was like $1.5 billion. $300 million was net income. Again, in 2016.

I think you've already been adequately corrected on your misconceptions about ARM's CPU design teams.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by lumberingjack on Monday September 14, 2020 @09:15AM (#24469732)
Apple mobile beating arm mobile is pretty irrelevant considering they can barely run the same type of tasks it's a miracle they both have the same benchmarks since they're operating systems are totally different. Beyond that it doesn't even really matter which one's faster because you got all that overhead of the os's that are so different. I would also like to say that Apple users are going to buy the newer chip whether it's faster or not. Because of planned obstinance at a software level. I've never heard an Apple user talk about speed or The benchmark of the phones because that marketing segment is clueless to that. My guess is that Nvidia needs arm for their self-driving stuff.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by bogomipz on Monday September 14, 2020 @09:42AM (#24470006)
>" If they want a world-class CPU team for the data-center, ARM isn't that (Graviton, Apple Silicon, Fujitsu, etc. are built and designed by better teams)."

The latest Fujitsus HPC offering the A64FX is also ARM based though.[1][2] And it sounds as though this is replacing their SPARC64 in this role .

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujitsu_A64FX

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fugaku_(supercomputer)

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by floatboth on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @11:11AM (#24482057)
Fujitsu is using custom cores, but AWS Graviton (1 and 2) actually uses Arm Neoverse cores. The Ampere Altra will too.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by formerly_proven on Monday September 14, 2020 @10:20AM (#24470447)
The core is not designed by ARM.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by oxfordmale on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:33AM (#24468315)
Nvidia could still asset strip ARM, and then let ARM decline organically with redundancies justified by the decrease in revenue.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by lumberingjack on Monday September 14, 2020 @09:08AM (#24469656)
Sounds like with all those new regulations it will be a limiting factor for new jobs not going to set up my company there if I got to jump through hoops like that.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by bencollier49 on Monday September 14, 2020 @04:25AM (#24468003)
It absolutely outrages me. I've posted elsewhere on the thread about this, but I want to do something to prevent this sort of thing in future. Setting up a think tank seems like a viable idea. See my other response in the thread if you are interested and want to get in contact.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by lumberingjack on Monday September 14, 2020 @09:18AM (#24469765)
Welcome to vulture capitalism it's been gutting American industry for about 10 20 years used to be four or five paper mills around here but now they're all in China and everyone who worked there is on drugs now
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by fencepost on Monday September 14, 2020 @01:25PM (#24472686)
Welcome to vulture capitalism it's been gutting American industry for about 10 20 years

More like 30-40. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_equity_in_the_1980s

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by Torkel on Monday September 14, 2020 @04:34AM (#24468054)
Get the deals in writing, with explicit liabilities if contract is broken. There, I fixed it.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by bencollier49 on Monday September 14, 2020 @04:42AM (#24468091)
What, and the profits, investments and growth made by the company will stay inside the country? There's a much broader problem here.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by sgt101 on Monday September 14, 2020 @06:49AM (#24468700)
What's this "quietly reneged over time"! Kraft simply welshed on the deal instantly! There were explosions and a change in the law.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by LoSboccacc on Monday September 14, 2020 @03:53AM (#24467837)
it's all posturing unless the government makes the company to agree to punitive severance packages to be put in an escrow account to be released to the company after 20 years or to the people if fired before that.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by boulos on Monday September 14, 2020 @01:03AM (#24466931)
> Why is this stake necessary?

Edit: it’s not necessary/a requirement.

They’re noting that after the transaction, SoftBank will still fall under the 10% ownership threshold that requires more reporting from the SEC [1]:

> Section 16 of the Exchange Act applies to an SEC reporting company's directors and officers, as well as shareholders who own more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities registered under the Exchange Act. The rules under Section 16 require these “insiders” to report most of their transactions involving the company's equity securities to the SEC within two business days on Forms 3, 4 or 5.

[1] https://www.sec.gov/smallbusiness/goingpublic/officersanddir...

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by xbmcuser on Sunday September 13, 2020 @11:16PM (#24466405)
Are they getting 10% of nvidia or keeping 10% of Arm
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by btown on Sunday September 13, 2020 @11:59PM (#24466630)
From the press release directly, it appears to be 10% of NVIDIA:

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for...

> Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of $21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stock and $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing. The number of NVIDIA shares to be issued at closing is 44.3 million, determined using the average closing price of NVIDIA common stock for the last 30 trading days. Additionally, SoftBank may receive up to $5 billion in cash or common stock under an earn-out construct, subject to satisfaction of specific financial performance targets by Arm.

Since NVIDIA currently has 617 million shares outstanding, if the earn-out were to be fully in common stock, this would bring Softbank to 8.8% of NVIDIA from this transaction alone (plus anything they already have in NVIDIA as public-market investors).

(I believe that the Forbes analysis in the sibling comment is mistaken in describing this as a "10% stake in new entity" - no new entity is mentioned in the press release itself.)

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by walterbell on Monday September 14, 2020 @12:13AM (#24466688)
> no new entity is mentioned in the press release itself

The Forbes article is based on a joint interview today with the CEOs of Arm and Nvidia, who could have provided more detail than the press release, specifically:

> Arm operating structure: Arm will operate as an NVIDIA division

This level of detail can be confirmed during the analyst call on Monday. Operating as a separate division would help assuage concerns about Arm's independence. The press release says:

> Arm will remain headquartered in Cambridge ... Arm’s intellectual property will remain registered in the U.K.

Those statements are both consistent with Arm operating as a UK-domiciled business that is owned by Nvidia.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by inopinatus on Monday September 14, 2020 @07:30AM (#24468930)
Given the quality of the reporting so far it’s possible that they are getting 10% of the UK.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by walterbell on Sunday September 13, 2020 @11:19PM (#24466421)
10% of Arm division of Nvidia, https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmoorhead/2020/09/13/its-....

> Softbank ownership: Will keep 10% stake in new entity

That would mean Nvidia acquired 90% of Arm for $40B, i.e. Arm was valued at $44B.

Is Softbank invested in Arm licensees, who may benefit from Softbank influence? Alternately, which Arm licensees would bid in a future auction of Softbank's 10% stake of Nvidia's Arm division?

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by nautilus12 on Monday September 14, 2020 @08:12AM (#24469163)
Does this mean they are or aren't buying treasure data? What would happen if not?
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by walterbell on Monday September 14, 2020 @01:39PM (#24472844)
That would be up to Softbank.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by nautilus12 on Monday September 14, 2020 @07:34PM (#24476351)
So they aren't buying treasure data then?
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by walterbell on Monday September 14, 2020 @10:36PM (#24477366)
Looks like they continue as independent company, owned by Softbank, https://blog.treasuredata.com/blog/2020/09/14/nvidia-to-acqu...

> The transaction does not include Arm’s IoT Services Group, which is made up of Treasure Data and Arm’s IoT Platform business.

> Back in July, Arm announced a proposed transfer to separate Treasure Data from its core semiconductor IP licensing business, enabling Treasure Data to operate as an independent business. That separation is on track and will be completed before the close of the NVIDIA transaction. Most importantly, you should not see any disruption in our service or support as a result of this news.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by pathseeker on Sunday September 13, 2020 @11:41PM (#24466544)
>Also, to first order, when a company issues stock to purchase another corporation, that cost is essentially "free" since the value of the corporation increases.

This isn't correct. If investors thing Nvidia overpaid, its share price will decline. There are many examples of acquiring companies losing significant value on announcements to buy other companies even in pure stock deals.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by siberianbear on Monday September 14, 2020 @12:23AM (#24466727)
In addition, it's not even a valid argument if the cost was entirely in cash.

One would be making the argument, "the cost is essentially free because although we spent $40B, we acquired a company worth $40B". Obviously, that's not any more correct than the case of paying in stock.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by HenryBemis on Monday September 14, 2020 @03:25AM (#24467708)
Correct, if it's shares, they just dilluted the value of the stock. If I owned 1% of the company, after printing and handing out $40bn worth of stock, then I keep the same amount of stock, but now it's (e.g.) 0.5%, which means I just lost 50% of that investment. Which means I will receive 50% of the dividend (since out of the next year's dividend 'pool' someone will get a big chunk. Which means NVidia just screwed the existing shareholders (for the time being, and once the numbers/$ are merged I should be getting my dividend by two parts, one from ARM and one from NVIDIA).

If they gave away cash, that's a different story, it all depends.. if they were sitting on $1tn cash, and the spent $40bn, that's no biggie. I mean we went through COVID, what worse can come next?

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by kd5bjo on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:53AM (#24468419)
> If I owned 1% of the company, after printing and handing out $40bn worth of stock, then I keep the same amount of stock, but now it's (e.g.) 0.5%, which means I just lost 50% of that investment. Which means I will receive 50% of the dividend

Well, you’re now getting 50% of the dividend produced by the new combined entity. If the deal was correctly priced, your share of the Arm dividend should exactly replace the portion of your Nvidia dividend that you lost through dilution.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by throwaway5792 on Monday September 14, 2020 @04:53PM (#24475018)
That's not how equity works. Paying cash or shares, the end result is exactly the same for shareholders barring perhaps some tax implications.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by fortran77 on Monday September 14, 2020 @09:46AM (#24470053)
I pay the car dealer $20,000, I get a car worth $20,000. Was the car free?
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by jaywalk on Monday September 14, 2020 @11:03AM (#24470988)
Technically, yes. Your net worth is unchanged. The problem is that the car is no longer worth $20,000 as soon as you drive it off the lot.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by tonitosou on Monday September 14, 2020 @10:53AM (#24470848)
actually as soon as u get the car its not a 20k$ car anymore.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by fauigerzigerk on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:55AM (#24468442)
I agree that paying in new shares doesn't make the acquisition free. But the value of shares is an expectation of future cash flows. If that expectation is currently on the high side for Nvidia and on the low side for Arm then paying in shares makes the acquisition cheaper for Nvidia than paying cash.

Nvidia is essentially telling us that they think their shares are currently richly valued. I agree with that.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by bananaface on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:59AM (#24468464)
Not necessarily. They could just prefer to be diversified. It can be rational to take a loss of value in the pursuit of diversification (depends on the portfolios of the stakeholders).

They could also think their shares are valued accurately but believe the benefits of synthesis would increase the value.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by fauigerzigerk on Monday September 14, 2020 @06:15AM (#24468545)
How would any of that make payment in shares beneficial compared to cash payment?
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by bananaface on Monday September 14, 2020 @07:12AM (#24468835)
$12B cash appears to be all they have available. They can't pay more cash.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda/financials/...

Their only other option would be taking on debt.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by fauigerzigerk on Monday September 14, 2020 @07:32AM (#24468946)
Right, so Nvidia with their A2 rating and their solid balance sheet in a rock bottom interest rate environment still found it favourable to purchase Arm with newly issued shares.

That's telling us something about what they think about their share valuation right now.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by bananaface on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @06:24AM (#24479647)
That's not how interest works. "Low rate environments" are low rate because debt is less attractive than in a high rate environment. Debt isn't automatically preferable when interest rates are low - if it were, rates would rise. There's no free lunch.

All it tells you is that they think it's preferable to taking on debt, which in some sense is the position you always start from. Debt has a deadweight cost that you have to overcome.

But we can test your theory. You're saying they thought their shares were overvalued. The market's reaction was the opposite - announcing the deal bumped their share price 7.5%.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by xxpor on Monday September 14, 2020 @11:26AM (#24471276)
Perhaps there are tax implications?
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by delfinom on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @09:08AM (#24480762)
>If investors thing Nvidia overpaid, its share price will decline

You realize that logic no longer matters in this economy. There's an oversupply of printed money and stonks literally only going up.

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by smabie on Monday September 14, 2020 @01:27AM (#24467071)
It's rare for the acquiring companies stock to not decline, regardless of whether the market thinks they overpaid.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by inlined on Monday September 14, 2020 @03:35AM (#24467762)
I worked at Parse when it was bought by Facebook. The day the news broke, Facebook’s market cap grew by multiples of the acquisition price. I remember being gobsmacked that Facebook effectively got paid to buy us.
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by rocqua on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:37AM (#24468333)
Unless Facebook itself actually issued stock at the new price, Facebook did not get paid. It were the Facebook shareholders that got paid.

Really, it shows that the market valued Parse much more than the cash it cost Facebook. If Parse was bought with stock instead of cash, that's almost cooler. Since it allowed Parse to capture more of the surplus value they created. (Since the stock price popped).

Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by smabie on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @12:06AM (#24477777)
More sophisticated analysis is required. You should look at the beta of Facebook at the time and determine whether the market reacted positively to the acquisition, or if the move was inline with Facebook's exposure to the market
Re:Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B by jannes on Monday September 14, 2020 @05:22PM (#24475308)
Keep in mind that market cap is a fictional aggregate. It does not represent the real price that all shares could be sold for.