Just to demonstrate that this is the variable that matters, consider the case where there are exactly three devices that have each of the other marketplaces installed on them, respectively. Would they present a meaningful competitive alternative to the big two?
4/5 in the examples I gave.
Google, Apple, Samsung and Amazon all have decent market share.
I couldn't find robust stats on Amazon's market share overall but I did find that they sold 5.3% of all tablets in Q3 2019. So if its true that the phone market is 20 times larger than that it would mean its unlikely that The Amazon App store is installed on 1% of all mobile devices.
> How many of those are installed on more than 1% of mobile devices (however broadly construed)?
> I doubt that they do more than 1% of the total app transactions
These goal posts keep moving
If we are talking about platforms and not codebases there are waaay more than two.
iOS (App store)
Android (Google Play)
FireOS (Amazon App Store)
LineageOS (Fdroid)
One UI (Galaxy Store)
To name a few. These all have distinct and thriving marketplaces for apps with decent market share (some can overlap). The code base they use is irrelevant for this context.