Many cognitive scientists would argue that it's also about building models which include statistical/Bayesian models but more than that.

To your broader point, it's not hard to find some specific domains of machine learning where there have been huge advances. But zoom out and look at the broader picture and the results aren't so impressive.

It doesn't seem that AI and robotics over-promise. Sure, we're not at AGI, but if you look at the potential(i.e. startups) to replace jobs, there are tons of that.

The same was said of expert systems in the 1980’s. Yes, there’s potential, but that potential hasn’t been realized yet. At least not to the point where people compare the impact of AI to the impact of semi-conductors and integrated circuits.

It will take time. Like every big innovation.

The question is: will the potential be fullfiled.

Maybe, given the many startups doing real work with machine learning(besides the many that just hype), it's reasonable to guess that that the potential Will be fullfiled.