Re:My AI Timelines Have Sped Up
by littlestymaar on Wednesday August 26, 2020 @02:21AM
(#24279702)
> In 1903 the Wright Brothers built the first airplane. In 1947, humans flew at supersonic speed for the first time.
And since then, not much has changed. Commercial supersonic flight never took off, and nowadays planes still use turbofans (invented during WWII). Engineering fields commonly make many breakthrough in a really short time, and then settle down for a long period. We can't predict how far IA progress will go. In the 50s, having flying cars by 2000 didn't sound unrealistic given how much flight advanced during the first half of the century. Yet, I don't think anyone nowadays believes we'll have them by 2100.
Also, between Da Vinci's Codex of the flight of birds (1502) and the Wright brothers flight, there has been four centuries. And regarding AGI, we might be closer to Da Vinci then to the Wright.
And since then, not much has changed. Commercial supersonic flight never took off, and nowadays planes still use turbofans (invented during WWII). Engineering fields commonly make many breakthrough in a really short time, and then settle down for a long period. We can't predict how far IA progress will go. In the 50s, having flying cars by 2000 didn't sound unrealistic given how much flight advanced during the first half of the century. Yet, I don't think anyone nowadays believes we'll have them by 2100.
Also, between Da Vinci's Codex of the flight of birds (1502) and the Wright brothers flight, there has been four centuries. And regarding AGI, we might be closer to Da Vinci then to the Wright.