Yes, there are possible outcomes that are absolutely terrible and potentially even permanent! Nobody is debating this.
However, what we need to have a real and fact-based discussion is that how prevalent these outcomes are, what are they based on, and what groups are most affected.
Then we as a society can come together and choose what the appropriate response is.
Of course this all breaks down when you have a country of 382M people that refuses to even attempt the creation of smaller, more manageable communities.
I don't understand that comment. I keep up to date on the latest scientific papers on the coronavirus pandemic, and the one thing I wouldn't call it is obvious. We repeatedly see things happening that run contrary to what the consensus expectation was. Obviously some of this is due to improvements in our understanding over time, but we are still very much in the dark about how it is currently spreading, who is most likely to suffer fatal or severe consequences, how we best treat the disease, etc.
Charitably, it is neither as bad as we feared nor as innocuous as some hoped, but that was bound to be the case and easily predictable. I don't feel at all confident predicting what comes next, however.
The fact that we are still following the same guidelines as we did in February makes it pretty obvious that governments are not really working with the new data currently coming out, but instead still trying to scramble to put a cap on any possible downside COVID has.
To put it in other terms, most world governments (and majority of their people in some cases!) are thinking like this currently, in terms of "amount of danger"
potential, currently unknown, negative outcomes related to COVID > millions without jobs, tens of millions stuck inside getting cabin fever and whole industries collapsing.
Who is "we"? My state went from "no one go anywhere, disinfect surfaces" to "wear masks everywhere, avoid groups of people indoors". We've gone through a lot of phases as more information became available, and while things are very much not yet back to normal, many restrictions have been lifted once it was apparent they weren't needed.
1/2 not worth it. 1/1000 - will take my chances. Covid seems to have flipped a switch in people's brains that make every probability 1.
It's more like:
- X/1000 chance for people who go to the gym, get sick, lose health permanently, probably infect others
- 0/1000 chance of the same if you stay away from the gym and try to do some sort of similar workout at home, even if it's not ideal. Body weight exercises are great by the way
Who cares if X is 1 or 999? Why would anyone choose the first option?
People choose the first option because they weigh risks differently. The risk of permanent health damage as a result of coronavirus disease in my age bracket with no pre-existing conditions is effectively nil.
True if there is no downside, but I can easily think few benefit going to gym :
- some sports can't be done indoor
- some sports can't be done alone
- some sports require equipment that you don't have at home
- social benefit
For now it seems like indoor gyms as we know them today are probably a bad idea. Hopefully due to a combination of better mitigations in the gym itself (sure put the squat rack in a giant bubble), decline in case counts, etc means the day where going back is not too far away (fingers crossed).
I'm hoping that the early vaccine trials go well and are approved. There is promising progress there but who knows.
There seem to be other nasty long term effects that are mostly unknown.
The idea that kids don't get or spread covid is not supported by evidence. They seem to get less symptoms, but there isn't enough evidence to say they don't get or spread it. Some studies suggest they are more likely to get and spread it, but there isn't enough to make strong statements yet
Of course, there always non zero probably of death for anything.
>There seem to be other nasty long term effects that are mostly unknown.
Of course, it could happen with any other diseases
>The idea that kids don't get or spread covid is not supported by evidence
Of course they may get or spread it but its very unlikely.
>but there isn't enough to make strong statements yet
Exactly, if there isn't enough evidence then don't close school.
I'm an athlete myself so I get it. Working out is important. But people are reporting that they are not back to 100% even _months_ after the primary symptoms of COVID are gone. And health professionals are saying that it's very possible to lose things like lung capacity PERMANENTLY. Honestly that scares me more than the idea of being badly sick for 1-2 months. I worked hard to make my lungs strong.
Also, of course, the whole concept of responsibility to our communities in a global pandemic is even more important, but an appeal to self-interest is there as well.