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Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by cm2187 on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @12:25PM (#24212222)
But I'd argue the economic forecasts look a lot more bleak than in 1999.
Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by grumple on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @12:56PM (#24212656)
In the short term, sure. But we have a more skilled, more educated population with more knowledge and better technology than ever before. We have challenges ahead of many sorts, but in terms of economics we’re pretty well equipped globally. You could argue the US is poorly equipped for manufacturing but that’s only one part of the economy.
Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by fallingfrog on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @01:26PM (#24213121)
Sorry but this is not the state of things if you are under 50 years old. If you are under 50, you are probably better educated but have much less wealth than your parents did at the same age. Your health suffers from years of having no health care. Your teeth are bad. Climate change is going to change your life imminently, and nobody in a position to do something about it cares. You are putting off having kids, or choosing not to. You’ve seen three economic crises in your lifetime and expect more. You’re not so much hoping for things to get better as much as you’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. There is just little reason to be optimistic right now.
Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by lotsofpulp on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @02:19PM (#24213948)
I don't know why this comment is downvoted when the income/wealth data supports it.

So much of the US economic engine after WW2 up to 2000 was driven by the fact that people were having lots of kids, and the taxpayers back then were borrowing from future taxpayers. That works if you continue to have lots of kids, but now that that has slowed down, plus the increase in labor supply via women in workforce, and outsourcing to other up and coming countries, plus decrease in demand of labor due to automation, makes for a bleak future outlook for many (as opposed to a growth outlook in the decades after WW2).

This is ignoring climate change and its effects. Which can only be remediated with reduced consumption. Which would also cause a reduction in demand for labor.

Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by fallingfrog on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @02:31PM (#24214167)
Thank you, I don’t take it personally, you have to expect some flak when you tell people things they don’t want to hear. I think I’ll go back and edit where I said there was no reason to be optimistic about anything, because that’s not exactly true, and people on HN are very sensitive to hyperbole. If you are going to say something unpopular you have to be very careful to be accurate.
Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by refurb on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @06:25PM (#24217501)
How so? Looking at this Pew data[1] on median household income in 2017 dollars, which appears pretty comprehensive, if you have a college degree, millennials are doing slightly worse than Gen X, but better than all generations before that looking at the same age range.

Even those with "some college" millennials are slightly worse off, but within 5%.

It's those with only a high school degree that have seen a significant hit.

[1]https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-yo...

Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by grumple on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @02:59PM (#24214649)
I mean, I guess you’re right. I’m the counterexample (grew up poor, have more than the zero of my one parent and my outlook looks good) but it took some time to get here. My college friends (all from wealthy families) are all well-off, but my friends from home are still poor and have poor economic prospects. But some of that is self-imposed because they haven’t put serious effort into economic pursuits.

I am quite tired of economic crashes, but I’ve failed to convince enough others to vote and advocate for changes. Those who do care about change are focused on matters other than economics, which I believe to be a mistake.

Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by wyclif on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @10:22PM (#24219241)
Your teeth are bad

Unless you're an average citizen of the USA. I swear, I've never seen so many gleaming white and healthy sets of choppers as I have in the USA (particularly compared to, say the UK or Eastern Europe)

Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by fallingfrog on Friday August 21, 2020 @09:15AM (#24234608)
I think this speaks mostly to the kinds of people you have interacted with in the USA. White teeth are very much a status symbol since you have to be at least upper middle class to have them, so people go out of their way to have teeth whitening procedures done as sign of high social status. But if you went on a tour through an amazon packing plant you’d see a lot of people with missing or crooked or yellow teeth. Our working class is almost invisible; if you’re well off you might not interact with them much at all, but they exist.
Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by baconandeggs on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @02:18PM (#24213924)
Sadly education is not historically a factor, as highly educated people are among the first to flee a doomed economy while government 'economists' keep assuring everything will be fine.
Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by m0zg on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @03:30PM (#24215103)
"Flee" _where_ this time? All economies are fucked, if not now then a month from now when it gets colder and all of this starts anew where they managed to subdue the first wave. I think these insane valuations are just pricing in the upcoming global wave of inflation at this point. FWIW, I'm betting on it. I'm taking on a ton of debt by buying another house.
Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by grumple on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @04:27PM (#24215919)
How much inflation could we have? The only people getting more money right now are the super-rich and the most poor. Lots of middle class / working class can’t work or earn money and those are the people that drive costs of anything we care about.
Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by m0zg on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @04:29PM (#24215958)
> How much inflation could we have?

Very close to unlimited amount if it gets out of control. See e.g. Venezuela, Zimbabwe, or Russia in early 90s, among other countries.

> can’t work or earn money

They will be able to soon if they still can't. You can't keep the economy shut down forever. So it'll be shut down selectively until Nov 3 and opened completely shortly thereafter. /s

On a more serious note, having lived through hyperinflation myself, people who can work will have their salaries adjusted upward enough to keep them working (and therefore putting some semblance of food on the table), but not enough to keep up with inflation. At least that's how it worked in Russia in the 90s. In Russia, though, the situation was relieved somewhat by the availability of the almighty dollar. You could temporarily protect your rubles from hyperinflation by buying dollars, and then selling them for rubles when you need money. With dollar (and really, all currencies) collapsing, I'm not sure what people are going to do, worldwide. Seems to me that a global inflationary spiral could de-facto reduce everyone's debt obligations to each other. So whoever is owed debts of any kind would take a massive haircut. In the 90s that was the Russian Government. The beneficiaries were people now known as "oligarchs". They borrowed unimaginable amounts of money (with kickbacks to government officials of course), bought up the Soviet factories, mines, and oil production that didn't yet collapse, and then paid back with hyperinflated money, fractions of a kopeck on the ruble.

Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by JMTQp8lwXL on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @06:02PM (#24217241)
> You could temporarily protect your rubles from hyperinflation by buying dollars, and then selling them for rubles when you need money. With dollar (and really, all currencies) collapsing, I'm not sure what people are going to do, worldwide.

You could temporarily hold bonds, stock, etc. Many other equity classes out there with high liquidity, which can be converted to cash whenever you like.

Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by m0zg on Thursday August 20, 2020 @03:07AM (#24220677)
No, you don't understand. For one thing you'd need to be completely brain dead to hold _bonds_ in this scenario specifically. You're basically lending money to whoever is issuing bonds and they'll be paying you pennies on the dollar in devalued currency. You should be _issuing_ bonds, if you're a company, and hoping you find enough fools to buy them up. For another, US stocks are necessarily tied to the US economy, which will be completely fucked for a decade if hyperinflation were to occur. I think you can deduce for yourself what will happen to stocks in this case.

Don't get me wrong, I think Venezuela-style hyperinflation is unlikely (unless we get a communist government or something in which case hyperinflation will be the least of our problems, and the economy would be fucked for a hundred years). But higher than normal inflation is very, very likely indeed, and you need to start thinking in terms of what that means for you. The old things like "buying bonds" might cease to work to increase, or even maintain wealth, irrespective of yield, if this gets even remotely out of control.

Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by JMTQp8lwXL on Thursday August 20, 2020 @11:49AM (#24224494)
If there's going to be hyperinflation in the US, there's going to be hyperinflation elsewhere. The US sets the baseline for global macroeconomic health. You mention why bonds are bad, I'll concede that, but you could have enumerated other asset classes in more detail. US Stocks are bad, because the US is doing bad... what about foreign stocks? What about gold? You don't have to hold cash.
Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by tuatoru on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @09:27PM (#24218919)
You're conflating two things, currency exchange rate changes and inflation.

Inflation to a first approximation is wage rises. "Too much money chasing too few goods" is the traditional formulaion.

Western economies have split. For the majority wages are not rising. For the affluent minority incomes are rising sharply. So we see little inflation in the goods and services bought by poor people, but steep price rises in goods bought by rich people.

The latter are mainly collectibles: stocks and bonds, real estate, artworks, gold and jewels, cryptocurrencies, etc.

We won't see Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation unless there is massive redistribution.

Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by m0zg on Thursday August 20, 2020 @03:03AM (#24220658)
> Inflation to a first approximation is wage rises.

Wage rises are always sub-inflation during hyperinflation. Goods, by the way, and especially complex goods with long supply chains, will also become scarce in all this as inflation makes it difficult to maintain stock necessary to manufacture or distribute goods. That is, that widget you bought today might cost more than you're charging for it when you need to replenish the stock. So you raise the price accordingly, using your best guess as to how much money you will need to still turn at least some profit. And _everyone_ throughout the entire supply chain does the same thing.

You haven't lived through a hyperinflation and I have. So you'd be wise to listen right about now, and if you're wealthy, you'd be wise to also read up on hyperinflation.

It's not the kind of "managed" inflation you're used to. It is, by definition, out of control completely, and very hard to get out of.

Re:Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap by JMTQp8lwXL on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @10:00PM (#24219122)
Would we consider tech workers affluent? Tech wages have been high for sometime, but I am not too privy to how much they're increasing, if they've plateaued (but are still high), etc.