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Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @10:13AM (#24198764)
> I can't see many people that have already accrued personal wealth of $50M but choose to keep working suddenly being turned off because of a wealth tax.

That's not the argument. If you accrue a wealth of $50M because you own half of your $100M company (or 100% of your $50M company), then a wealth tax will — over time — force you to give up ownership in your own company.

An income tax or a capital gains tax on the other hand, has the effect that you describe: if you already have $50M, then any tax on more money than could possibly have close to 0 negative impact on productivity.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by awb on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @10:46AM (#24199223)
> If you accrue a wealth of $50M because you own half of your $100M company (or 100% of your $50M company), then a wealth tax will — over time — force you to give up ownership in your own company over time.

Why? There's a floor that below $50M you don't need to pay a wealth tax. In a worst case scenario where your entire wealth is tied up in stocks of a single company you own and you have 0 cash to pay your wealth tax, your ownership gradually approaches $50M.

They're are very few people who end up controlling 50+% of a $50M+ company at 20 and keep their 50+% stake for the 60 years pg references. Anyone who did that didn't take VC money.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by nrmitchi on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @10:53AM (#24199334)
Even when they do still control the company over the long run, assuming it becomes a public company, they will be selling stock on a regular basis to cover regular expenses.

IIRC Bezos sells over $1B in Amazon stock per year to fund other things, but there is no outcry about how un-american it is that he has to "sell off his stake in his own company" to pay for his hobbies/lifestyle.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:05AM (#24199515)
> IIRC Bezos sells over $1B in Amazon stock per year to fund other things, but there is no outcry about how un-american it is that he has to "sell off his stake in his own company" to pay for his hobbies/lifestyle.

Sure, but that's voluntary. It's fine for me to sell my house if I have other plans. It's less fine for me to be forced to sell my own house even if I want to continue to own it / live in it.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by learc83 on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:17AM (#24199688)
We already have the equivalent for houses--property tax. Every year you have to pay x% of the value of your house to the government.
Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by nrmitchi on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:26AM (#24199834)
Property tax is really funny in the context of this conversation. You are paying a percentage of the _value of the house_, which you (have most likely) taken a loan to pay for.

A given average person in the US (excluding high earners) will likely be paying a property tax rate based on a value that is _actually higher than their net worth_, which makes property-tax-as-a-wealth-tax for average American homeowners actually greater than the 1.69% average property tax rate.

Imagine if this was applied as a "wealth tax" on a brokerage account, but considered that you could borrow 5x your balance on margin, and then were taxed on your margin holdings.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:24AM (#24199777)
The scale of property value and wealth value isn't remotely comparable. For the most part, property values are pretty low, and hence the tax that you might pay on property is also fairly low. The US State with the highest property tax is New Jersey (2.47%), and the median home value is about $330,000. The annual tax on the median home there is around $8,100 — definitely steep, but still well within reach for most families, especially those that are fortunate enough to own homes.

In contrast, if you were to take an individual worth $10 billion, whose entire net worth is derived from the ownership of their stock, and were to tax them 2% of their wealth annually, they would have to somehow come up with $200 million every year to pay the tax. This is a different proposition altogether, since none of these billionaires have that much money sitting around in cash (or any other asset for that matter). They're just wealthy on paper. The only way to pay that tax would be to either liquidate their holdings, or for their corporations to pay enough in dividends to cover the tax, which is an odd (IMO bad) incentive to create for corporations in general. Even the owner of a $300 million business who owns (say) 30% of their company at a $100 million net worth would have to come up with $2 million in cash every year. Very few CEOs have that kind of cash coming in on a yearly basis, and you're essentially just creating an incentive for corporations to inflate the compensation to their founder CEOs just so that they can maintain ownership in their own company.

A big reason for this disparity between the top 1% value of corporation vs the top 1% value of property is that, unlike land (which is fixed), corporate wealth is NOT zero-sum, it's created. This is a very important distinction, because a lot of the rhetoric around wealth is sometimes based around the idea that there's some fixed amount of wealth in the world, and the rich have just been stealing all of it — no the aggregate wealth has been created at historic levels.

Also Federal property taxes are unconstitutional, which is why it's applied entirely at the state / local level.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by learc83 on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:41AM (#24200013)
You're the one who came up with a house analogy.

>In contrast, if you were to take an individual worth $10 billion, whose entire net worth is derived from the ownership of their stock, and were to tax them 2% of their wealth annually, they would have to somehow come up with $200 million every year to pay the tax

If your $10 billion dollar asset isn't returning you much more than 2% per year, it has a terrible ROI, and you need to divest.

>corporate wealth is NOT zero-sum, it's created.

Not absolutely, but the power represented by the percentage of the world's wealth one controls is finite. At the limit if I own 99% of a countries current wealth, I think it's perfectly reasonable for the rest of the citizens of that country to decide that I have amassed too much power and to rectify that by taxation and redistribution.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:43AM (#24200041)
> If your $10 billion dollar asset isn't returning you much more than 2% per year, it has a terrible ROI, and you need to divest.

That's not how corporate ownership works. It's not about the ROI, it's about ownership in the company you founded / are running.

If your goal is just ROI, then you will willingly divest from your own company, at which point your wealth is taxed as a capital gain.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by learc83 on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:53AM (#24200190)
For most people they start a company to make money, so ultimately it's about the ROI. They think they'll make more by controlling the company than the alternative

When we are talking mutli billionaires like Bezos who may be driven by more grandiose incentives like amassing power, I think it's perfectly reasonable for the rest of us to effectively remove some of their control.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:57AM (#24200247)
That's a pretty broad generalization, and you've basically taken what's in reality a spectrum, and characterized it by the two extremes.

In reality, there are loads of people in between: founders of medium size businesses.

The wealth tax is imposed on everyone in this spectrum. The capital gains tax is only imposed on those that amass the most amount of power.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by learc83 on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @12:21PM (#24200612)
Even the most aggressive wealth tax that is proposed is for a tax on wealth of over $50 million. So the founder of businesses valued up to around $100 million dollars would reasonably be able to maintain control without paying any wealth tax.

So I'm perfectly OK saying you can't single-handedly control a business larger than $100 million without paying the rest of society extra compensation for maintaining that kind of power.

Seems perfectly fair to me. Power is finite in the same way land is. If controlling a company is valuable to you in some other way other than just amassing power, say you are really behind the mission of going to space, you can reorganize into a non profit.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by awb on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:25AM (#24199796)
People with $50M won't be selling their primary houses to cover a wealth tax. If they're selling their vacant 3rd vacation homes, then that's all part of the idea to gradually reduce the amount of assets that the extremely wealthy are able to hold. The idea is that wealth concentration actually reduces competition.

Of course it's a slippery slope, but most things in life could be categorized that way.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:46AM (#24200085)
I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of where this wealth is sitting. For most of the super-rich, the wealth isn't sitting in diverse assets that can simply be liquidated (Elon Musk doesn't have a 3rd home).

If you were to impose a wealth tax on Elon Musk, he would have to gradually give up his ownership in SpaceX and Tesla.

> The idea is that wealth concentration actually reduces competition.

But that's just not been the case. Wealth is not zero-sum. Just because Bezos is a 100 billionaire on paper, doesn't mean that I can't go and raise venture capital for my startup and succeed.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by triceratops on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @03:50PM (#24203482)
> he would have to gradually give up his ownership in SpaceX and Tesla.

That's sort of the point. Unless he's creating additional value as a CEO such that the board keeps awarding him stock or money so he can maintain his holdings, he's going to lose his ownership stake. Sounds like a tax like this would motivate him to work more not less.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @07:09PM (#24205420)
> Sounds like a tax like this would motivate him to work more not less.

You frame this as though this is somehow beneficial to shareholders, but if that's the case, they can work out this arrangement themselves.

Also the idea that SpaceX or Tesla would continue to be valued as highly as they are if he continuously relinquishes his ownership stake is also dubious.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by triceratops on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @07:15PM (#24205459)
> You frame this as though this is somehow beneficial to shareholders, but if that's the case, they can work out this arrangement themselves.

I was showing how a wealth tax need not necessarily discourage endeavor and industry, as is commonly alleged.

> Also the idea that SpaceX or Tesla would continue to be valued as highly as they are if he continuously relinquishes his ownership stake is also dubious.

Why? I thought they were valued highly because of Musk's leadership, not ownership. Is that not the case? Even without his ownership stake, he can continue to be the CEO as long as the companies do well.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @07:27PM (#24205539)
> I thought they were valued highly because of Musk's leadership, not ownership. Is that not the case? Even without his ownership stake, he can continue to be the CEO as long as the companies do well.

That's not how publicly traded companies work. If a sufficiently motivated activist investor accumulates a large enough ownership, they can decide to fire Elon Musk — and there are enough people that would like to see this happen on account of his crazy tweets.

That's the crux of the argument, that no matter how badly activists may want to remove Elon Musk as CEO, he's safe as long as he maintains his stake. A forced divestiture of that threatens his ability to maintain his leadership in those companies, and that's arguably not in the best interests of many existing shareholders today.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by triceratops on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @08:04PM (#24205782)
> If a sufficiently motivated activist investor accumulates a large enough ownership, they can decide to fire Elon Musk

If Musk is a value-add, they'd be tanking the value of their own holdings. If he's not, then why should he keep his job?

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @10:21PM (#24206544)
Again, at the risk of explaining the basics of how publicly traded companies work...activist investors may disagree with other shareholders as to whether “Musk is a value add”. It’s not some objective truth, it entirely depends on what the majority shareholder thinks. Today, that happens to be Musk himself. Under a wealth tax, that’s no longer true.
Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by triceratops on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @02:45AM (#24207833)
I'm aware of how publicly traded companies work. Activist investors don't take a majority stake, just one large enough to get a board seat or two (5% is considered the minimum in the US) and make some noise. Shareholders vote on whether to add newly-nominated board members, so if they think an activist investor intending to fire the CEO is not acting in their interest, they can vote against adding said investor to the board.

If an "activist" investor actually bought 51% of the company (aka an "acquisition" or "takeover"), they would also own 51% of the downside of any CEO changes. At that point they have every right to decide what's in the company's interest. The company's shareholders can also vote on whether to accept the acquisition offer, which means dissenters who lose the vote can sell and get out if they disagree with the new owner's direction.

For that matter, Elon Musk only owns 21% of Tesla right now[1], so if 51% of the board think he's a net-negative, he could go immediately. They clearly do not.

1. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/insights/052616/top-4-...

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @09:15AM (#24210019)
> Activist investors don't take a majority stake, just one large enough to get a board seat or two (5% is considered the minimum in the US) and make some noise.

Per-investor, yes — but multiple institutional investors can get involved with little intervention unless the founder holds at least a plurality. This is exactly why we're starting to see companies like Facebook and Uber issue class A shares. Travis Kalanick was, in theory, untouchable — he just didn't have the energy in him to fight the board after a personal tragedy.

> For that matter, Elon Musk only owns 21% of Tesla right now[1], so if 51% of the board think he's a net-negative, he could go immediately. They clearly do not.

Yes, and if he is forced to liquidate any more of his holding, he ceases to be a plurality. That's the point.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by triceratops on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @12:28PM (#24212265)
And my point is his "plurality" means fuck-all if a majority of shareholders or board members want a different CEO. Musk may have gotten the job originally because of his status as founder. He keeps his job because in the view of the shareholders and board he's doing a good job. And they could even choose to award him additional stock so he maintains his %.

Now yes, because he owns 21%, there are fewer other shareholder votes to oust him than there would be if he owned 10% (still a plurality). But they could do so in theory.

Also, I'll be upfront. I don't think a wealth tax is a good idea because it'll inevitably lead to people dodging taxes by putting the money into stuff like artwork or IP. And to counter that, the government will need to know every single item of value every person owns and have to create a large, intrusive bureaucracy to track all that. It sounds horrific.

But I don't think a wealth tax discourages entrepreneurship or working hard, and PG's blog post is disingenuous in saying so.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by HarryHirsch on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:26AM (#24199833)
But there is external effects. Wealth translates into political power, how about people ending up disenfranchised by the excessive wealth of a small part of the people? They did not voluntarily give up their right to political participation.
Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:49AM (#24200121)
> Wealth translates into political power

This is debatable: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/money-and-elections-a-c...

Consider that the representative from Bezos' own district in Washington is a socialist.

At the end of the day, the greatest check on wealth's effect on political power is the fact that legislators can only win office if they can win a democratic election.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by HarryHirsch on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @12:12PM (#24200479)
There is this paper from Princeton that makes a convincing case for the US being an oligarchy because the superrich control what gets on the ballot: https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/fi...

At the end of the day, the greatest check on wealth's effect on political power is the fact that legislators can only win office if they can win a democratic election.

It doesn't work like that. You donate to both sides of the aisle so you always have someone in your pockets. The famous cartoon from John Herzfeld about the "Millions behind Hitler" (this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Heartfield#/media/File:He...) is bullshit. German industrialists did give substantial support to Hitler, but not for ideological reason, they'd have given to anyone in power. The cash did amplify Hitler's ability to implement his ideology, though, and the non-donors didn't choose that.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by wry_discontent on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @12:27PM (#24200684)
There's a difference between personal and private property.
Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by Retric on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @10:31AM (#24198998)
A profitable company can pay dividends which would easily cover a wealth tax. Owning 50M worth of stock in an unprofitable company with zero other income sources or investments is a significant sign you should diversify anyway.
Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by macrolime on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @01:52PM (#24201837)
A startup founder can end up owning 50M worth of stock in an unprofitable company. What happens then if the company is worth 1M by the time it's time to pay the tax?

In my country, there are people who's had to declare personal bankruptcy from this situation.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by Retric on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:05PM (#24206755)
That’s always going to be country specific. Generally, anyone that’s failed to diversify their investment so a 98% drop in some asset doesn’t result in them losing 90+% of their fortune has already failed.

Also, be cautious about how early investments may artificially inflate the value of the company. Convertible debt is one way around that issue.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by chii on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:25AM (#24199807)
Dividends themselves are taxed. So why make it a wealth tax, which erodes your accumulated wealth, instead of taxing the income directly?
Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by Retric on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:48AM (#24200117)
Tax avoidance has become an art form. Companies have minimized dividends so wealth can compound without being taxed, but that has negative economic effects as they accumulate effectively pointless cash hordes. Further, several things like inheritance let you change the tax basis. Selling stock and donating the proceeds is worse for you than donating the stock directly etc.

In other words tax income and the game is to hide income, tax wealth and you increase economic efficiency. Wealth taxes only erode wealth if you fail to make positive returns.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by SpicyLemonZest on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @10:40AM (#24199112)
It's probably personally advantageous to diversify in that situation. But if you get recruited by a $100m startup that's not yet profitable, and you hear that the founder sold half her stock last year, is there any chance you're working there?
Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @10:37AM (#24199079)
Great point.

However, Amazon (as an example) does not pay dividends.

And also, this creates an incentive to pay dividends to shareholders, as opposed to re-investing profits in R&D, which is an odd (IMO bad) incentive.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by room500 on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @10:47AM (#24199234)
I wonder if that is a more natural (and long-term) structure though.

The current tech formula seems to be "build the biggest moat possible - worry about profitability later"

While that is driving some of the fastest growth in history, one has to wonder what the landscape will look like once these moats are built. Will these companies have full power to price however they please?

If a company is incentivized to be profitable as they grow, would it lead to a more stable future where we have multiple competitors in each industry?

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by HarryHirsch on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @12:35PM (#24200798)
what the landscape will look like once these moats are built

You see this now with the cloud vendor lock-in bullshit. Too much productivity wasted through too much unnecessary friction.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by garmaine on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @12:17PM (#24200548)
How do you diversify restricted common stock in a non public company?
Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by clairity on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @10:25AM (#24198913)
no, that's an intentional misdirection by pg, that you'd lose control of your company over time because you'd have to sell shares to pay the tax. what would more likely happen is that loan products and other financial instruments and techniques would pop up so you could pay the taxes in a whole host of ways without actually losing the underlying shares that are used as collateral. it already happens in a more limited, and sometimes private, context today.
Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @10:27AM (#24198942)
That's not an "intentional misdirection", it's undeniably true.

> what would more likely happen is that loan products and other financial instruments and techniques would pop up so you could pay the taxes in a whole host of ways without actually losing the underlying shares that are used as collateral.

In order to pay back a loan, you have to realize some gain somewhere. That money isn't free. Even to simply pay back the interest, you would have to liquidate some of your own stock (which is taxed). Eventually when the principal needs to be paid back, the only way to do it is to liquidate the equivalent value in your own company.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by eloff on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:14AM (#24199657)
Your company can pay dividends and you can use that to pay the tax. It essentially becomes an operating tax on the company based not on its profit, but its value. What's interesting about that is it would work for companies like Amazon that intentionally engineer zero profits so as to avoid taxes.
Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @11:19AM (#24199713)
> What's interesting about that is it would work for companies like Amazon that intentionally engineer zero profits so as to avoid taxes.

They "engineer" zero profits by re-investing their surplus back into R&D — a behavior explicitly encouraged by the government and the tax code. In 2010, Amazon had about 100,000 employees. Today they have almost 1 MILLION. That's what "reinvesting profits into R&D" looks like, in practice.

> Your company can pay dividends and you can use that to pay the tax.

You're essentially talking about adding a countering incentive away from investing in R&D, and toward paying shareholder dividends, which...why? There are way more intelligent and non-distortionary ways to raise funds for a government (eg increasing the capital gains tax).

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by triceratops on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @03:51PM (#24203512)
> You're essentially talking about adding a countering incentive away from investing in R&D, and toward paying shareholder dividends, which...why?

So shareholders can choose where to allocate those dollars? What's bad about that?

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @07:14PM (#24205453)
There's nothing wrong with shareholder dividends, but to add an extra incentive to pay dividends is distortionary and doesn't make much economic sense. On the contrary, society appears to want to minimize shareholder dividends because that's money that's not going to worker salaries and R&D.

It also ignores the fact that if Amazon had been forced to pay dividends 10 years ago, the stock would be worth significantly less today on account of their inability to re-invest into R&D and enter new business lines and grow from 100,000 -> 1 million employees. Even if we aim to strictly maximize shareholder-value (to the extent that's even desirable), it's penny wise but pound foolish.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by eloff on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @12:40PM (#24200863)
I'm not sold on the idea, merely answering the parent comment that paying the tax would require selling shares. That's not necessarily true.

There's a lot to be said for property taxes. Taxes on income and wealth are disincentives for things you wnt more of. Property tax is one of the least destructive of taxes.

I'm also of a mind that carbon and pollution taxes would be good as well, since the disincentive would be a plus in that case.

Re:Modeling a Wealth Tax by bhupy on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @12:46PM (#24200946)
> There's a lot to be said for property taxes. Taxes on income and wealth are disincentives for things you wnt more of. Property tax is one of the least destructive of taxes.

Yeah but a wealth tax is not the same as a property tax, because unlike land, wealth is not zero-sum, it's created. In fact, the most economically efficient property tax is the Georgist Land Value Tax which typically deducts the appraised value of improvements before applying the tax, because we don't want to tax productive improvement of land.

Taxing wealth OTOH has the effect of taxing the productive creation of wealth. It's like an inverse Land Value Tax, where you allow one to deduct the value of the underlying land, but simply levy a tax on the appraised value of improvements, just because one might be improving the land "too much".

Also, property taxes are unconstitutional at the Federal level. This is why there is no such thing as a Federal property tax, today. If we wanted a Federal wealth tax, we would have to amend the Constitution.