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Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by api on Friday August 07, 2020 @06:43AM (#24080464)
> But having the president order arbitrary punishment without proof of guilt (what happened to presumption of innocence?) looks like a dictatorship to me.

It is. There's a faction in the US that believes the US has to have a dictatorship to compete with China.

We've been here before. The USSR looked like an unstoppable juggernaut until the late 1960s / early 1970s. Like China they started from a state of relative backwardness and rapidly industrialized and modernized. The pace seemed incredible until they ran out of stuff to copy.

Totalitarian systems excel at execution, but they are not creative. A vertically integrated totalitarian state will always beat a liberal democracy at "see that? do a whole lot of that!" type challenges. Totalitarianism fails utterly when the leaders are incompetent or deluded, but when the leadership has at least basic competence they can appear formidable... as long as there is a "that" to "do a lot of." When totalitarianism runs out of clear obvious paths forward, it flounders.

Totalitarian systems find it very hard to innovate because innovation is disobedience. It goes against entrenched bureaucratic and monetary interests and sometimes even laws. The latter is why states with a minimalist doctrine of law (some version of "that which is not explicitly forbidden is permitted") tend to do better at innovation.

For a real world example of above: look at how ISPs which are state backed monopolies use the law to push against competitors be they local or municipal broadband or Starlink. In a totalitarian state, those sorts of entrenched interests almost always win. Once something becomes entrenched in the power structure it is immovable and competing with it becomes effectively illegal.

During the Cold War there were always factions in the USA and Western Europe who argued that we must become more like the USSR. The right pushed for more militarization and executive power, while the left pushed for more central management and central planning. They were really pushing for "right" and "left" variants of the same thing: a vertically integrated totalitarian system like the Soviet state.

The same thing is happening now. I think a major reason many at the top of the financial and intelligence world pushed (sometimes covertly) for Trump is as an answer to Xi Jinpeng. There is always a temptation in any conflict or tension to emulate the adversary. It won't work. The real answer is to encourage and protect our ability to innovate while waiting for China to run out of things to copy.

That being said, I am all for cutting China off from easy access to inside knowledge and training. We shouldn't make it easy for the CCP to copy everything. As such I am not opposed to disengagement. We should move production to places like India, Africa, Indonesia, etc. so as not to readily share industrial and technological expertise.

Edit: I mean no racism here. The Chinese can innovate just fine. China under Xinpeng finds it hard to do anything but copy, because it's a dictatorship.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by mcintyre1994 on Friday August 07, 2020 @06:49AM (#24080494)
> The real answer is to wait until China runs out of things to copy.

The thing is that this order is about TikTok which comes from a Chinese company, has a US company currently trying to buy it while another has just released a shameless clone of it to their users. Maybe in this situation it is different because China aren't the ones doing the copying?

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by api on Friday August 07, 2020 @06:57AM (#24080548)
TikTok is a copy of Snapchat and Instagram. The only reason it's such a juggernaut is money. It's been very heavily and cleverly marketed, especially to younger demographics. Schools are flooded with TikTok swag, and they've hired domestic marketing agencies to push it. It's really obvious that someone has dumped enormous amounts of money into shoving TikTok at kids and teens.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by ptenk on Friday August 07, 2020 @12:14PM (#24083518)
You obviously have never used TikTok. Possibly the most ridiculous comment on HN.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by mikechen233 on Friday August 07, 2020 @12:11PM (#24083478)
Tiktok has a completely different concept than Instagram and Snapchat. The entire product philosophy is different.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by novok on Friday August 07, 2020 @12:38PM (#24083832)
More accurately, a copy of vine :p
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by k12sosse on Friday August 07, 2020 @11:24AM (#24082886)
Why is this downvoted? Are you all child-less?
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by unishark on Friday August 07, 2020 @08:19AM (#24081055)
> During the Cold War there were always factions in the USA and Western Europe who argued that we must become more like the USSR. The right pushed for more militarization and executive power, while the left pushed for more central management and central planning. They were really pushing for "right" and "left" variants of the same thing: a vertically integrated totalitarian system like the Soviet state.

Even without consciously intending to become like them, this is what inevitably happens when you focus on a competitor. Racing on beating them at whatever they are good at means you take on whatever aspects make them good at such pursuits. E.g. the space race meant centrally dumping tons into research funding, a system which of course never went away after the race was won because governments mostly only prefer to take power, they rarely give it up.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by beaunative on Friday August 07, 2020 @05:43PM (#24086761)
Any one who participate in politics stands to win for the government to have more power.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by sfifs on Friday August 07, 2020 @07:11AM (#24080637)
> The real answer is to encourage and protect our ability to innovate while waiting for China to run out of things to copy.

When did you last visit China? That train has long left the station :-)

Advanced materials research, Aerospace and Chip Fabs are pretty much the only areas where technological areas where I currently see US having a lead

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by boringg on Friday August 07, 2020 @08:20AM (#24081065)
Did you see the spaceship launch from China (https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21256484/china-rocket-deb...)? The debris pathway fell right across two major cities and landed near a village in Africa. I still think there is a lot of areas China needs to catch up. edit:spelling + added African village
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by sukilot on Friday August 07, 2020 @09:38AM (#24081641)
That's aerospace.

Anyway, the US blew up SS Columbia over Texas.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by boringg on Friday August 07, 2020 @10:09PM (#24088379)
17 years ago...
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by sukilot on Friday August 07, 2020 @09:37AM (#24081628)
Chip Fabs? Those are in Taiwan (until China started raiding them).
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by api on Friday August 07, 2020 @07:15AM (#24080657)
Those are innovative fields. The US has a clear lead in aerospace and is among the leaders in materials. We've lost our lead in chips not to China but to Taiwan, a comparatively more liberal Asian country. The gap is not huge (yet) so it's possible that the US will regain its fab lead... if we want it. I think it's more likely in the short term that the US will make deals to get TSMC to build high-end fabs here for strategic reasons.

I'm sure China will manage to copy a Boeing 737 pretty soon, which is 1960s technology. Meanwhile we are doing:

https://boomsupersonic.com

https://www.spacex.com

... and who-knows-what at places like Area 51. :)

Last I checked China's most advanced fabs were doing 28nm, but that was in 2019. By now they've probably started to get EUV working as they feverishly race to copy TSMC. I would not be surprised if Chinese fabs are literal exact copies of prior generation TSMC and Intel fabs, since it takes time to steal inside information.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by bakuninsbart on Friday August 07, 2020 @08:33AM (#24081140)
In 2019 China landed a spacecraft on the far side of the moon. [1] Two months ago, China successfully launched its first rover to Mars [2]

I think it is hardly arguable that China has the most technologically advanced retail market in the world. - Ordering everything online from food to furniture, paying everywhere else by mobile phone, introducing state-sanctioned digital currency [3], and it is closing the gap or even pulling ahead in many other fields as well.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2019/01/03/china-land...

[2] https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53504797

[3] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3096296/c...

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by sukilot on Friday August 07, 2020 @09:42AM (#24081673)
How is digital currency different from debit/credit/ETF/Wire etc?
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by mullingitover on Friday August 07, 2020 @03:55PM (#24085847)
Just look at how reliant the US is on the antiquated ACH transfer system. We're in the year 2020 and it's literally faster to mail someone cash in many cases.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by rumanator on Friday August 07, 2020 @08:02AM (#24080967)
> I'm sure China will manage to copy a Boeing 737 pretty soon, which is 1960s technology. Meanwhile we are doing:

Well, good enough is good enough. Boeing 737 is currently the most popular plane, and if China's regime manages to steal enough tech to be able build an equivalent product, even if it steals only 60s technology, then China's regime will be in a position to outcompete Boeing based on metrics that matter such as cost or soft power.

It really doesn't matter who has the cutting-edge after a point of diminishing returns. When that point is reached, good old economics start to become the leading criteria.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by whatshisface on Friday August 07, 2020 @09:56AM (#24081836)
With passenger planes, the cutting edge is in economy.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by boringg on Friday August 07, 2020 @08:26AM (#24081094)
Boom - very cool aircraft hadn't seen their products yet but had seen the Virgin news. edit: spelling their.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by Andrew_nenakhov on Friday August 07, 2020 @08:10AM (#24081003)
> Totalitarian systems excel at execution, but they are not creative.

Having survived the Soviet Union, I say with full certainty that you could not be more wrong about the execution part.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by api on Saturday August 08, 2020 @11:13PM (#24096977)
What about the USSR in the 1950s? I understand that by the 1980s it was a basketcase, but there was a time when it at least seemed to be the most rapidly advancing nation.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by Andrew_nenakhov on Sunday August 09, 2020 @07:23PM (#24103806)
USSR had rapid progress in some areas only because of the systematic plundering of the workers. Behind a majestic facade, it was a country of extreme poverty.

In 1950s peasants were basically slaves who could not even leave their kolkhoz without party permission. The vast majority of citizens lived in atrocious conditions in communal flats or barracks [1] (a type of temporary housing with no sanitation and basic heating).

[1]: https://ribalych.ru/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/baraki-_552.j... - such buildings can be commonly found in Russia even today.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by Andrew_nenakhov on Friday August 07, 2020 @11:02AM (#24082586)
unless, of course, by 'execution' were meant actual executions (of people) - that's what totalitarian systems excel at, indeed.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by free_rms on Friday August 07, 2020 @08:27AM (#24081101)
I see this pattern of comparisons to the USSR again and again. The USSR collapsed a long time ago, and China saw it happen. Why would they go the same way?

I'd say it's Americans, moreso than anyone else, who took the wrong lesson from that collapse. History isn't on anyone's 'side' and destiny doesn't exist. We take too much for granted.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by hakka-nyu-su on Friday August 07, 2020 @09:22AM (#24081484)
"Collapse" is a bit too passive to describe what happened to the USSR. Gorbachev was a pro-American advocate of Social Democracy (aka the Denmark-style state that Bernie likes).

He thought that Russia would become prosperous by adopting capitalism. Instead, GDP shrank by 50% and Russia went from a global superpower to being encircled in its own backyard.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by free_rms on Friday August 07, 2020 @09:29AM (#24081557)
Sure, but the fruit was pretty rotten at that point after 18 years of Brezhnev. Maybe if Gorbachev had followed Kruschev, it could've been done without a chaotic mass selloff to gangsters.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by vkou on Friday August 07, 2020 @11:06AM (#24082637)
The fruit was rotten under Kruschev too, the difference between him and Brezhnwv is that his administration picked a lot of low-hanging fruit that the public approved of (Apartments, and a relaxation of absolutely insane Stalinist repression.)

The economy didn't work well under either of them, but Kruschev is credited for leaving things much better than he found them.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by free_rms on Friday August 07, 2020 @06:03PM (#24086895)
China did manage such a turnaround, though. Of course, they had the contemporaneous USSR collapse to point to as well as maoism in living memory, so that probably made it more politically possible.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by sukilot on Friday August 07, 2020 @09:34AM (#24081609)
GDP dropped 50% when honestly reporting facts stopped becoming a criminal offense.

Gorbachev liked social democracy, but the Communist Party warlords like Putin didn't disappear in the revolution, they hung back and then took over again.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by starfallg on Friday August 07, 2020 @09:54AM (#24081806)
Which resulted in the wholesale appropriation of state assets by the oligarchs.
Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by jdietrich on Friday August 07, 2020 @11:53AM (#24083239)
>China under Xinpeng finds it hard to do anything but copy, because it's a dictatorship.

WeChat is vastly more innovative than any of the American social media platforms. China makes and buys more electric vehicles than Europe, the US and Japan combined. DJI almost single-handedly created the civilian drone market. Chinese smartphone brands are regularly first-to-market with new features. The "innovative" Just Walk Out retail concept of Amazon Go is commonplace in China.

There's no doubt that China plays fast-and-loose with intellectual property laws, but the idea that they can't innovate is at least a decade out of date.

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by lebuffon on Friday August 07, 2020 @09:15AM (#24081420)
Innovation can be hard for entrenched businesses in Capitalist states as well. One could argue that large corporations are a form of totalitarianism. Witness big auto in the west struggle to keep up in the EV field.

To your point "free-er" states can give rise to the lone wolf innovators who force changed by the power of a new, better idea. (and a solid business plan)

Re:US to ban transactions with ByteDance and WeChat in 45 days by emiliobumachar on Friday August 07, 2020 @07:35AM (#24080777)
It's a compelling theory, but I'd love to see some harder evidence.

Innovative genius is older than free societies.