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Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by jpdus on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @06:19PM (#23981292)
> Picture a few large cities with contractors running around every roof tending to solar panels and compare to a few experts at a single nuclear power plant. For the contractors-on-roofs, the slip & falls add up even though they'll never get an HBO mini-series.

This is a very flawed and short-sighted argument. Averages don't matter when you are talking about fat-tailed/power law risk distributions. Nobody would be opposed to PVs on roofs in their neighborhood b/c some construction workers fall to death every year - this risk is well calculable. But (almost) everyone would be opposed to a fission plant or nuclear waste facility next door - and rightfully so.

Without enormous direct and indirect subsidies, nuclear (fission) isnt commercially viable anywhere in the world. Heck, you still can't insure a fission plant.

Yes, in theory fission would have been the best option for carbon-free energy. No, in practice humanity never figured out how to safely and efficiently use this power source and now renewables are a way safer and cheaper bet. You won't find any objective economic analysis (that incorporates such indirect subsidies as the implicit state guarantee and realistic building and waste handling/storing costs) that can show otherwise.

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by bassman9000 on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @07:10PM (#23981678)
Averages don't matter when you are talking about fat-tailed/power law risk distributions. Nobody would be opposed to PVs on roofs in their neighborhood b/c some construction workers fall to death every year - this risk is well calculable. But (almost) everyone would be opposed to a fission plant or nuclear waste facility next door - and rightfully so.

How is this even an argument.

Nuclear risks are also calculable. The regulatory hurdles nuclear has to go trough, even for testing reactors, to meet risk criteria (among others), are enormous. The vast majority of nuclear, as exposed by deaths/TWh generated, is extremely safe. Flying vs driving argument.

Take the worst nuclear catastrophe. Take the wildest overestimation in deaths. It's still less than most other sources, including renewables.

No, in practice humanity never figured out how to safely and efficiently use this power source

What? France. All their active residues probably fit in one or two football fields. 3th/4th Gen will consume them, making medical radioisotopes in the process. You can't contain megatons of CO2 this easily.

In the meantime, air pollution kills in the range of 6-8 million people a year. German support for keeping nuclear grows

https://twitter.com/hh_mikawe/status/1284770806090825728?s=2...

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by arkh on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @06:40PM (#23981449)
> But (almost) everyone would be opposed to a fission plant or nuclear waste facility next door - and rightfully so.

Reading this kind of debate from France is a good laugh.

If you're interested you can check where our electricity comes from here: https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/la-production-delectricit... (between 60 and 70 percent of nuclear energy today).

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by Retric on Wednesday July 29, 2020 @10:33AM (#23987076)
France exported and imported a vast amounts of electricity during it’s nuclear hay day and still needed huge subsidies. In effect they where little different than people living near a local nuclear reactor getting most of their power from it while extremely dependent on the wider electric grid to meet demand and lower overall prices. Which as odd as it sounds demonstrated civilian nuclear inability to scale as they still needed to reduce power plant utilization by ~10%.
Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by pfdietz on Wednesday July 29, 2020 @07:03AM (#23985363)
And then check out the cost overruns on Flamanville 3. What is now, 4x the initial cost promise? Or is it 6x?

New nuclear is dead in France just like it is in the US.

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by tarsinge on Wednesday July 29, 2020 @04:58AM (#23984718)
Also see electricitymap.org
Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by worik on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @08:17PM (#23982134)
Because France was desperate to have its own nuclear weapons.

It was not economic for them either (tho back in the day it displaced coal - try having a coal plant next door)

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by philipkglass on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @10:17PM (#23982885)
France's nuclear power program actually displaced oil. France had a lot of oil fired electric power plants in the 1960s when it was a cheap fuel. As a reaction to the oil price shocks of the 1970s, France committed to the "Messmer Plan" for nuclear electricity:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#Messme...

France demonstrated its first fission bomb in 1960 and its first thermonuclear bomb in 1968:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_and_weapons_of_mass_des...

The 1970s and 1980s build up of nuclear power in France had nothing to do with desperation to have its own nuclear weapons. France already had them before the Messmer Plan.

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by worik on Wednesday July 29, 2020 @05:46PM (#23991927)
"France's nuclear power program actually displaced oil"

No. Oil is much cheaper

To maintain a nuclear arsenal a nuclear industry is needed.

It is the only economic justification for nuclear power

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by iso8859-1 on Wednesday July 29, 2020 @07:29PM (#23992691)
So you don't think something can be expensive because it is heavily regulated? Or do you just think it is not possible with less regulation?
Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by iso8859-1 on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @08:51PM (#23982340)
What is the point of bringing up economics when we are talking about life and death? How can you even measure if something is economic or not if you haven't defined what a human life is worth?
Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by jtolmar on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @07:18PM (#23981733)
What makes you think nuclear power has a power law risk distribution? For that to be true, it'd have to be possible for an unboundedly large nuclear accident..

Just because something has more concentrated risk doesn't make it fat tail. Nuclear power's winning safety record already includes Chernobyl and Fukushima.

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by cameldrv on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @06:59PM (#23981597)
I agree that costs are a major problem with nuclear. It seems to be a problem with all large scale construction projects in the past 20-30 years or so.

On the safety tail risks, IMO it's more of a psychological/perception problem than a problem of actual risk. We've had a number of serious accidents in the history of nuclear power, and none of them have led to anything close to the death toll of a single year of running coal plants.

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by sfifs on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @09:08PM (#23982445)
The problem is actually that people are forced off of their homes, personal property and way if life should there be a big accident. For an average householder it's their life savings, friendships, community and way of life wiped out through no fault of theirs. Sure there'll be compensation and resettlement but who trusts governments to do this fairly and painlessly?

It hasn't helped that no civilian nuclear operator has demonstrated the ability to sustain safe operations with zero incidents and consistently prioritize safety over the course of decades. Every operator has a string of nuclear incidents of varying severity and i think more than anything, the Fukushima thing shook people up because while you could excuse away Russian and American accidents with cultural factors nobody perceives Japanese to be careless or irresponsible (and this was expressly the reasoning that led Angela Merkel to reverse her stance)

So yeah in abstract at a nation level, it's not a major risk but for the families possibly affected, it's a catastrophe - as opposed to increased chance of a few people getting cancer over their lifetime from Coal.

Therefore given the asymmetric risk and demonstrated inability of the nuclear industry in ensuring zero incidents, there's naturally grassroots opposition which translates into political pressure that no amount of "risk is so low" data-flashing can wave away.

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by read_if_gay_ on Wednesday July 29, 2020 @07:21AM (#23985471)
> and this was expressly the reasoning that led Angela Merkel to reverse her stance

I know a lot of Germans who think that reversal was just opportunistic pandering to environmentalists to grab votes from the Green party.

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by belorn on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @07:19PM (#23981738)
Renewables are only safer and cheaper bet once the battery issue is solved and can be made equally green, safe and cheap. The primary reason why nuclear isn't commercial viable today is that combining natural gas and renewables makes for a very cheap energy grid.
Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by imtringued on Wednesday July 29, 2020 @05:27AM (#23984897)
There is no "battery issue". There are lots of energy storage mechanisms that work well in combination. [0]

What you said is a tautology and brought nothing new to the table. (non cheap) nuclear can't compete against cheap renewables. Everyone knows that but almost nobody knows why nuclear is so expensive today.

The reason why nuclear power is not commercially viable is that it doesn't benefit from economies of scale. If you build custom tailored humongous monolithic nuclear plants you're going to pay a huge amount of money. Just think about how expensive it would be to build one giant solar panel with a total area of 1 km² instead of a million 1m² panels. It's absolutely nonsensical yet it happens every single time a nuclear plant is being constructed. The few success stories like France simply standardized on a single design. General corruption and budget bloat probably did more to stop nuclear than all anti nuclear hipsters combined.

[0] https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/09/correcting-anti-renewab...

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by worik on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @08:20PM (#23982154)
Nope.

There are other alternatives, and grid scale batteries are viable now. Just cheaper to burn gas/coal and fsck the future!

The obvious alternative is pumped hydro, that is well established. Another is demand management, unexplored because the greed heads in control do not believe that our society can work together for the common good.

Coming from Aotearoa, as I do, I know that is a fat lie.

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by belorn on Wednesday July 29, 2020 @05:38AM (#23984945)
Currently there does not exist a commercial viable pumped hydro installation in the world that buy overcapacity renewable energy and later sells it at a profit. There are a few experimental and proof of concept installations that demonstrate the possibility of hydro as a battery, and at least one operate as an additional reservoir to a hydro dam, but the commercial viability of buying cheap renewable energy to pump water in order to generate electricity later when the price is high is not yet here.

Demand management is also a great idea in concept but the commercial viability is questionable as long as people can just turn on the cheap gas burners. Commercially, turning off production and keep the industry closed when renewable are not producing is much more expensive compared to just paying what ever price society currently demands when burning fossil fuels.

Remove fossil fuels from being viable choice in the energy grid and the economic viability would change dramatically for every other energy source, including hydro pumps and nuclear. Demand management might even become a possible strategy to a point where it can have an significant impact on the energy grid. For now most grids operates by combining cheap renewable with cheap fossil fuels, with the environment taking the real cost when the fossil fuels burns.

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by indigo945 on Wednesday July 29, 2020 @03:35AM (#23984258)
Another alternative is to just build so many renewable energy plants that demand can be served even when production is comparatively low. During peak production hours, you can just blow the energy back into the atmosphere (or run a steel mill with it). This is a question of political will, and nothing more.
Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by aspenmayer on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @09:46PM (#23982708)
I have seen Aoraki with my own eyes, and I understand what you seek to protect.
Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by worik on Wednesday July 29, 2020 @05:52PM (#23991979)
For the locals Aoraki is a literal ancestor.

So it is not my job, it is taken care of.

Re:ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly by aspenmayer on Friday July 31, 2020 @10:53AM (#24009163)
I suppose I was unclear. Please forgive me. We need to protect the idea of preservation in culture and society, so that future people also hold these ideals of caretaking and awareness of our ancestors, including the planet and life itself, to be true.