Re:Q2 2020 Update
by bryanlarsen on Wednesday July 22, 2020 @06:18PM
(#23922216)
VW has over $200 Billion in debt, and are spending $100B on the transition to electric. Buying VW at this point is crazy risky.
There are currently ~10 major automakers outside of China and India. In a decade, there will be less than 10. The only one I am confident that will be sticking around is Tesla. The others have a difficult transition to electric ahead of them and possibly a difficult transition to self-driving and will possibly have to deal with strong Chinese competition. Not everyone will successfully transition. Perhaps spending heavy on the electric transition like VW is the right approach. Perhaps letting everybody else take all the risks and swooping in late like Toyota is the right approach. I don't know.
The only manufacturer that I'm confident of being around in 10 years is Tesla. Some of them will transition well and will likely sell more cars than Tesla and have an enterprise value larger than Tesla in 10 years. And some of them will go bankrupt or be swallowed cheap like FCA-PSA.
That being said, I significantly reduced my holdings in Tesla this year. I'm pro-Tesla, but not at current prices.
There are currently ~10 major automakers outside of China and India. In a decade, there will be less than 10. The only one I am confident that will be sticking around is Tesla. The others have a difficult transition to electric ahead of them and possibly a difficult transition to self-driving and will possibly have to deal with strong Chinese competition. Not everyone will successfully transition. Perhaps spending heavy on the electric transition like VW is the right approach. Perhaps letting everybody else take all the risks and swooping in late like Toyota is the right approach. I don't know.
The only manufacturer that I'm confident of being around in 10 years is Tesla. Some of them will transition well and will likely sell more cars than Tesla and have an enterprise value larger than Tesla in 10 years. And some of them will go bankrupt or be swallowed cheap like FCA-PSA.
That being said, I significantly reduced my holdings in Tesla this year. I'm pro-Tesla, but not at current prices.