I remember one keynote where he was talking about slowing PC sales and a huge rise in iPad sales (tablets were relatively new back then). Yet he didn't credit the two most obvious reasons - market saturation (everyone already has a PC) and slowing upgrade cycles - today's PCs are "good enough" for many more years than they used to be, as hardware improvements have stagnated.

Years later, the same kind of slowdown happened with tablets (especially Android tablets which are basically dead, but iPad wasn't completely spared either), and will eventually happen with smartphones as well.

The "we are now in a post-PC era" hype of 2010 (after the iPad's release) has eventually led to many "tablets are dead" articles by 2016.

As a datapoint to support your argument: I bought a new PC in 2020, the one I bought prior to that was in 2013 and it still runs here at home only relegated to server duty as the HW is good enough for that but lags behind for gaming.

I don't know how long I'll be able to run that server for before needing to upgrade something, but I suspect its lifetime is until something catastrophically fails.

2013 PC?! That would be brand new for my folks back home which are using my old gaming PC from 2007 with a Core 2 Quad and 6GB of RAM.

For Web browsing and office work it works flawlessly. One day I'll throw in a cheap SATA SSD that I'll find on sale as the OS drive and it'll be good for even more years.

Oh it was absolutely fine for everyday desktop/office type stuff, if I weren't into gaming I wouldn't have upgraded it at all. It still worked for gaming, but newer games were taking their toll.

Interesting n choice of word. I would say that a smartphone is pretty nice to consume things, but the moment I need to create anything other than a short email it is worth using a real computer.

The only exception that I can come up with right away is drawing, but even taking pictures, well my phone doesn't hold a candle to my DLSR.