How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

Re:How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United ... by ceejayoz on Monday July 13, 2020 @07:58PM (#23827074)

It becomes far worse than that, as our medical system can't handle 62M hospitalizations.

(Nor 60-70% of that, which is more realistic, as it's unlikely to hit 100% of the population.)

NYC's hospitals came close to the breaking point; Italy's exceeded it in spots.

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Re:How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United ... by jlg23 on Monday July 13, 2020 @08:07PM (#23827135)

The author addresses that:

> This model assumes that the question’s hypothetical is correct and the fatality rate is 1%. It also assumes for the sake of argument 100% infection. (In reality, of course, neither of these is a perfect match to reality. The infection rate will never hit 100%, but the fatality rate in a widespread infection is likely to be greater than 1%, because health care services will be overwhelmed.)

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Re:How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United ... by ceejayoz on Monday July 13, 2020 @08:11PM (#23827163)

Yes; I felt it important enough to warrant inclusion in the TL;DR version.

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