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Re:Dude, You Broke the Future (2017) by free_rms on Sunday July 12, 2020 @07:19PM (#23815567)
Eh. Most of the mainstream media ran headlines predicting 99% chance of a Hillary win and a few of them sniped at Nate Silver for giving Trump a 30% chance (stupid tech bros).

A single contrarian take doesn't undermine that trend.

Re:Dude, You Broke the Future (2017) by dragonwriter on Sunday July 12, 2020 @07:29PM (#23815619)
> Most of the mainstream media

The mainstream media and the intellectual class have very little overlap.

Re:Dude, You Broke the Future (2017) by free_rms on Sunday July 12, 2020 @08:04PM (#23815818)
The intellectual class media I should say, then. NYT, Washington Post, etc.
Re:Dude, You Broke the Future (2017) by jrumbut on Sunday July 12, 2020 @07:31PM (#23815633)
Note that no one denies Hillary was considered the favorite, I also mention the HuffPost model which was the most prominent to reflect a near certainty. Most news outlets, even conservative ones, reported on this notable predictive modeling effort.

What there was, was a diversity of opinion and vigorous debate (sometimes devolving into sniping, sure), the thing that is supposed to be there. There wasn't a 50/50 split, but I don't remember a single publication I read at the time (all the classic left leaning intellectual rags) that didn't run pieces predicting a Trump victory.

Re:Dude, You Broke the Future (2017) by fiblye on Sunday July 12, 2020 @08:21PM (#23815887)
The 99% number so often paraded as a sign of failure wasn't a 99% chance of being president. It was a 99% chance of winning the popular vote.

That prediction was correct, and by a decently large margin. But losers often become president because of the electoral college (it's happened 5 times already), and losers will continue to benefit for years to come.

Re:Dude, You Broke the Future (2017) by free_rms on Monday July 13, 2020 @12:31AM (#23817190)
It was a conditional probability of Trump winning a bunch of states he was behind in, naively projected as if they were independent. It turned out they all swung the same way, and those probabilities were not independent.