Re:Dude, You Broke the Future (2017)
by fiblye on Sunday July 12, 2020 @08:21PM
(#23815887)
The 99% number so often paraded as a sign of failure wasn't a 99% chance of being president. It was a 99% chance of winning the popular vote.
That prediction was correct, and by a decently large margin. But losers often become president because of the electoral college (it's happened 5 times already), and losers will continue to benefit for years to come.
Re:Dude, You Broke the Future (2017)
by free_rms on Monday July 13, 2020 @12:31AM
(#23817190)
It was a conditional probability of Trump winning a bunch of states he was behind in, naively projected as if they were independent. It turned out they all swung the same way, and those probabilities were not independent.
That prediction was correct, and by a decently large margin. But losers often become president because of the electoral college (it's happened 5 times already), and losers will continue to benefit for years to come.