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A comment on 35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19.

Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by pwinnski on Friday July 10, 2020 @10:22AM (#23791721)
It would be nice if we counted COVID-19 deaths the way we count flu deaths, which is generally using the "excess deaths" figure. Why some states would go with "50% of excess deaths" or "65% of excess deaths" seems like an odd choice. Are there non-political reasons for doing that?
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Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by pwinnski on Friday July 10, 2020 @10:30AM (#23791792)
It seems that we are much more generous in how we count flu deaths, so that 15,620[0] confirmed tracked deaths in the most recent flu season ends up as an estimated 42,000.

All the comparisons I've seen this year have been using the 24,000-62,000 flu estimate uncritically when comparing to COVID-19, but apples to apples is apparently 15,620 for flu and 132,056 for COVID-19[1].

Perhaps flu-like estimates will come later, since the CDC tends to wait until the end of flu seasons to release those numbers. We're clearly nowhere near the end of COVID-19 season.

[0] https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-0534499...

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/case...

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Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by sparrish on Friday July 10, 2020 @11:20AM (#23792398)
When is the end of COVID-19 season? Why would the COVID-19 season have different dates than the flu season?
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Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by pwinnski on Friday July 10, 2020 @11:36AM (#23792603)
We have a very long history with the flu, and know that historically, the season ends around March every year.

COVID-19 is new, and was barely getting started in March. Despite early claims that it would definitely taper off in the summer, apparently based on the fact that the flu does, it is not tapering off at all. We have no idea when COVID-19 will taper off, or if it will before herd immunity is reached (with or without a vaccine).

So we don't know yet when the end will be, and they have different dates because they are different viruses.

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Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by Jedd on Friday July 10, 2020 @10:43AM (#23791928)
How we count flu deaths ... where?
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Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by pwinnski on Friday July 10, 2020 @11:17AM (#23792358)
The CDC, in America.
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Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by happytoexplain on Friday July 10, 2020 @10:47AM (#23791976)
Where does this us-vs-them, "descend into general chaos" interpretation come from aside from petty identity politics (which I give HN users the benefit of the doubt about)? To be clear: I mean as opposed to giving people the benefit of the doubt - that people are, in general, acting on best information and that any urgency you perceive is an understandable result of it being a life and death situation. "Descending" into "chaos" is such a common attack on - what? People buying too much toilet paper? Orders to wear masks? It seems so unnecessarily hyperdramatic and divisive.

Edit: For context, I admit the devastation to life from both "sides". But I have no strong conclusion either way - I can't figure out if we're erring on too much lockdown or too little lockdown so far.

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Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by happytoexplain on Friday July 10, 2020 @11:11AM (#23792276)
This appears to just be articles about examples of the harm of the lockdown, which isn't what I asked about, nor did I deny it. Another person could just as easily post examples of the direct harm of the virus and call it "descending into chaos" because we didn't lock down enough. The point is to be rational.
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Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by guscost on Friday July 10, 2020 @11:23AM (#23792430)
Those effects don't amount to "general chaos" when compared to a normal flu season? I'll admit it's a little hyperbolic, as is my style.

But in many parts of the country (mostly the parts where HN users don't live, naturally), "general chaos" is already not hyperbole: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/upshot/murders-rising-cri...

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Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by nutjob2 on Friday July 10, 2020 @10:45AM (#23791953)
I don't see how an excess death caused indirectly by the virus is different to one caused directly, when measuring broadly (ie not for epidemiological purposes).

Those people died because of the virus, and the cost of the virus in lives should be measured that way.

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Re:35% of excess deaths from pandemic not caused by Covid-19 by jtbayly on Friday July 10, 2020 @10:55AM (#23792086)
One of the important questions that comes up with this data is whether excessive fear of Covid-19 is leading to many other unnecessary deaths. It is not clear what percent of these 35% would fall into that category.
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