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Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by adventured on Thursday July 09, 2020 @07:02AM (#23778860)
And Tesla is currently worth more than these combined: BMW + GM + Ford + Mercedes + Hyundai + Nissan + Fiat Chrysler + Honda

You know, just a trillion dollars in sales give or take. I'm sure Tesla will get there sometime this century.

Intel has $25 billion in operating income the last four quarters (~73% increase in three years). nVidia has $3.4 billion in operating income the last four quarters. Yeah but nVidia is growing fast, right? Nope, they're growing modestly. How long will it take for nVidia to get to $25b in operating income? 15 years if everything goes perfectly?

It's certainly up to the reader to judge whether these spectacular valuations are due to the stock market bubble, or if... you know... it's different this time, it's the new economy, cloud!, or whatever bullshit is being spun this time around.

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by gruturo on Thursday July 09, 2020 @10:57AM (#23780971)
Intel is quite unconvincing on a lot of key aspects (10nm, 7nm, performance after spectre family mitigations, etc) but to me the biggest danger is their inability to commit and persist on pretty much any topic which isn't their mainstream CPU line.

They sold Xscale, they sold their modem division (admittedly it was terrible, but I refuse to believe it was unfixable, certainly Apple didn't).

This creates hesitation in prospective customers of anything which isn't their mainstream CPU business, reducing them to a one trick pony. And that pony is now having its lunch eaten from both below (ARM) and above (Epyc).

Their operating profit and their reserves mean little if prices go down - they are used to fat, lofty margins and I'm not sure they still know how to execute without them.

Think about what happens to the shale oil businesses once crude prices approach their extraction costs. You implode very quickly no matter how big you are.

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by johnvanommen on Thursday July 09, 2020 @02:44PM (#23783566)
Great summary.

And Intel's cost of business is incredibly high. Semiconductor fabs are some of the most expensive factories in the world.

Intel is in danger of becoming General Motors, a company that sat by idly while competitors made them obsolete.

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by fluffy87 on Thursday July 09, 2020 @07:07AM (#23778884)
The stock price only reflects the supply and demand of a company’s stock. A lot of people want to have nvidias and Tesla stock, so their price is higher.

The problem is all those people writing financial pornography about the stock market. That can give you the impression that there is more to the stock price than that.

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by saddlerustle on Thursday July 09, 2020 @07:43AM (#23779110)
The fundamental value of a stock is the net present value of future cashflows that stock entitles you to. Buyers and sellers are welcome to believe otherwise, but in the long run they will lose money.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by AznHisoka on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:45AM (#23779564)
Unless the stock pays a dividend (and a lot of stocks have never paid one), their cashflow never end up in your wallet as a shareholder. Thus the only value you will get is the amount someone else will pay for your stock.

Sure they need some cashflow (after all, nobody wants to buy a bankrupt company) but to believe the stock value is a straightforward formula based on cashflows isn’t how the market works. Otherwise Amazon would have plummeted in price long ago.

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by qeternity on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:47AM (#23779580)
Buybacks. The other (and more efficient) method to return capital to shareholders is via buybacks, where the company literally hands you cash in exchange for your shares.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by AznHisoka on Thursday July 09, 2020 @09:24AM (#23779879)
That is true though again, not every company does buybacks.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by saddlerustle on Thursday July 09, 2020 @09:41AM (#23780043)
A company might not do a dividends or buybacks now, but if they are successful they are likely to do so eventually, and that expectancy is worth something just the same.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by Denvercoder9 on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:05AM (#23779266)
Nowadays the fundamental value of a stock is more what you can convince others to pay for it.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by phkahler on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:18AM (#23779361)
That's not fundamental, its superficial and the people playing that game are in for a correction.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by jaekash on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:00AM (#23779223)
> Buyers and sellers are welcome to believe otherwise, but in the long run they will lose money.

Not if they sell it to someone else for a higher price.

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by pjc50 on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:34AM (#23779488)
Someone will lose money, but you can't rely on Softbank throwing another billion dollars down a hole every time you've a tech disappointment to unload.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by mercer on Thursday July 09, 2020 @03:47PM (#23784273)
well to be fair that hole can be metaphorically filled by involving Greensill to help with some creative accounting!
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by mywittyname on Thursday July 09, 2020 @10:30AM (#23780653)
Several of those manufactures that you listed are on the verge of bankruptcy (Ford, Nissan, FCA). Auto manufacturing is capital-intensive and extremely high risk and a few bad quarters is all it takes to completely wipe out shareholders. You may not realize this, but GM actually went bankrupt in 09 and shareholders lots everything.

Telsa is not going to go bankrupt in the near- or medium-term. There's just too damn much money backing them.

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by nickik on Thursday July 09, 2020 @01:31PM (#23782683)
Tesla is also able to have almost positive cash flow on high margin high demand cars in the middle of a pandemic. The other automakers are leaking money like there is no tomorrow.

Ford, GM, FCA have a thin wedge of the market that is still profitable for them and that market is under attack, with little indication of them being able to make a huge splash in another market. Not to mention a broader shift in car market and transportation that requires massive investment.

If you don't grow, don't make much profit and are risky, meaning a couple of bad quarters almost kill you your stock is not gone be worth much.

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by raphaelj on Thursday July 09, 2020 @07:07AM (#23778886)
Well, Intel income can also go down fast, and that's probably the main reason we see the stock price going down.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by battery423 on Thursday July 09, 2020 @07:12AM (#23778911)
Really?

As far as i know intel has/had plenty of reserves and is still selling good.

The Demand in general is very high.

Doyou have any numbers?

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by empath75 on Thursday July 09, 2020 @07:26AM (#23778987)
In the year after the iPhone was announced, blackberry stock tripled to 140 dollars a share. They had record profits and revenue.

It’s currently $4.

You can be a dead man walking even while your financials are fine.

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by itsoktocry on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:28AM (#23779431)
>In the year after the iPhone was announced...

The iPhone was a one-in-a-generation product that upended an industry. Yet I see 10 products being compared to it a week.

It may sound cynical to people here, but in the long-run, you'll do a lot better thinking "this is probably not the next iPhone" than having FOMO that every second tech company might be the next Apple.

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by empath75 on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:35AM (#23779492)
I’m just using it as an example of an incumbent being disrupted. It takes a few years to show up in the bottom line.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by Synaesthesia on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:05AM (#23779264)
The same could be said of nvidia. I don’t think their future is assured by any means.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by empath75 on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:26AM (#23779419)
Nothing is assured, but if you were going to bet, intel’s future seems a lot cloudier. Where do they get growth from?
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by gameswithgo on Thursday July 09, 2020 @08:07AM (#23779285)
Two fronts with big challenges: Losing Appple as a customer AMD already stealing market share on desktop, mobile, and server, with lots of improvements on the way in the short term. (smaller transistors, better memory controllers) While intel has really nothing in the pipeline.
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by libertine on Thursday July 09, 2020 @07:13AM (#23778920)
That's why sometimes I wonder if the overlap of "tech" and "stock market" is bad.

One deals with concrete things, other deals with speculation.

These valuations are references of the stock market - it's almost a measure of popularity, than anything else. Right?

Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by catalogia on Thursday July 09, 2020 @11:24AM (#23781250)
The overlap of tech and speculation is called "science fiction."
Re:Nvidia is now worth more than Intel by travisporter on Thursday July 09, 2020 @09:26AM (#23779890)
"Cloud!" made my day! I could totally see this in on a new-age advertising page on a new X as a service website lol