Re:Decision for 2020-21 Academic Year
by TheOtherHobbes on Monday July 06, 2020 @02:19PM
(#23750960)
"Treatments are better" very much means the area under the serious illness/death curve is smaller.
And deaths are a lagging indicator. It takes up to two weeks, median around one week to show symptoms, and then another two weeks, median a week and a half or so, to become seriously ill.
The outcome after that depends on predisposition and quality of care. But one developer I know spent forty days on a ventilator.
So if lockdown isn't being observed and masks aren't being worn, it's going to take 4-6 weeks for that to start significantly increasing deaths.
There are rumours in the UK of another national lockdown in September/October, but I suspect local lockdowns will become a thing long before then.
> the majority of the US did not sign up to lockdown until a vaccine was released
False dichotomy. Responsible mask-wearing allows many (admittedly not all) areas of society and the economy to function without a full lockdown.
Initially the lockdown was enabled to flatten a curve of a disease we had little information about. Months later, we have lots more info about it. Treatments are better. Flattening the curve won’t change the area under the curve, and the majority of the US did not sign up to lockdown until a vaccine was released.