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Re:Decision for 2020-21 Academic Year by bdcravens on Monday July 06, 2020 @01:57PM (#23750688)
Doesn't this indicate that the information we used in weeks and months past to open up and make decisions about the fall was flawed, since we may not have understood the full severity of the infection rate?

I'm glad that death rates are down, but unless universities completely waive all attendance policies (and adjust grading systems accordingly) infections can't be ignored. Additionally, not dying doesn't mean a quick infection: there are long-term effects.

Re:Decision for 2020-21 Academic Year by eanzenberg on Monday July 06, 2020 @02:08PM (#23750833)
Not really. We’ve known the cases were much more widespread for months now from anti-body testing. Some estimates are 10-20x higher. CDC now quotes an infection-fatality-rate (IFR) of 0.3%, or about 3x the flu.

Initially the lockdown was enabled to flatten a curve of a disease we had little information about. Months later, we have lots more info about it. Treatments are better. Flattening the curve won’t change the area under the curve, and the majority of the US did not sign up to lockdown until a vaccine was released.

Re:Decision for 2020-21 Academic Year by TheOtherHobbes on Monday July 06, 2020 @02:19PM (#23750960)
"Treatments are better" very much means the area under the serious illness/death curve is smaller.

And deaths are a lagging indicator. It takes up to two weeks, median around one week to show symptoms, and then another two weeks, median a week and a half or so, to become seriously ill.

The outcome after that depends on predisposition and quality of care. But one developer I know spent forty days on a ventilator.

So if lockdown isn't being observed and masks aren't being worn, it's going to take 4-6 weeks for that to start significantly increasing deaths.

There are rumours in the UK of another national lockdown in September/October, but I suspect local lockdowns will become a thing long before then.

Re:Decision for 2020-21 Academic Year by bdcravens on Monday July 06, 2020 @02:25PM (#23751036)
> the majority of the US did not sign up to lockdown until a vaccine was released

False dichotomy. Responsible mask-wearing allows many (admittedly not all) areas of society and the economy to function without a full lockdown.