Re:Decision for 2020-21 Academic Year
by TheOtherHobbes on Monday July 06, 2020 @02:19PM
(#23750960)
"Treatments are better" very much means the area under the serious illness/death curve is smaller.
And deaths are a lagging indicator. It takes up to two weeks, median around one week to show symptoms, and then another two weeks, median a week and a half or so, to become seriously ill.
The outcome after that depends on predisposition and quality of care. But one developer I know spent forty days on a ventilator.
So if lockdown isn't being observed and masks aren't being worn, it's going to take 4-6 weeks for that to start significantly increasing deaths.
There are rumours in the UK of another national lockdown in September/October, but I suspect local lockdowns will become a thing long before then.
And deaths are a lagging indicator. It takes up to two weeks, median around one week to show symptoms, and then another two weeks, median a week and a half or so, to become seriously ill.
The outcome after that depends on predisposition and quality of care. But one developer I know spent forty days on a ventilator.
So if lockdown isn't being observed and masks aren't being worn, it's going to take 4-6 weeks for that to start significantly increasing deaths.
There are rumours in the UK of another national lockdown in September/October, but I suspect local lockdowns will become a thing long before then.