Re:Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater t...
by chrisco255 on Wednesday June 24, 2020 @03:36AM
(#23625177)
This is number of infections not number of hospitalizations. This study implies the disease is orders of magnitude less deadly than we thought.
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Re:Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater t...
by cynusx on Wednesday June 24, 2020 @06:04AM
(#23626142)
I'm actually annoyed we still don't know the exact death rate of the virus.
I am not sure if it would be that unethical to call up volunteers that reflect the general population to establish the real death rate. (even less so if you reward them economically)
If it is orders of magnitude less deadly then that should have enormous policy implications.
Re:Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater t...
by SpicyLemonZest on Wednesday June 24, 2020 @09:36AM
(#23627696)
Diseases unfortunately don't have a real death rate; the death rate of diseases tends to vary widely between populations for inscrutable reasons. Even if we had a study determining an 0.3% death rate among a statistically representative sample, we couldn't make policy under the assumption it's below 0.5% and couldn't be absolutely certain it's not 1%.
Re:Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater t...
by anoncake on Wednesday June 24, 2020 @09:49AM
(#23627834)
Yes, we could and should make policy under the best data available even if we'd prefer better ones.
Re:Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater t...
by SpicyLemonZest on Wednesday June 24, 2020 @10:05AM
(#23628006)
I don't think that's true. It's very dangerous to make epidemic policy without accounting for model uncertainty, because by the time your model's clearly and unambiguously falsified it may be too late to deal with it.