Re:Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S...
by rogerkirkness on Monday June 08, 2020 @11:57AM
(#23457718)
So far.
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Re:Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S...
by djoshea on Monday June 08, 2020 @12:23PM
(#23457978)
Exactly. I believe the 60 million infections delta was estimated for April 6th (figure 4), so the counterfactual would be considerably worse as of today.
Re:Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S...
by sukilot on Monday June 08, 2020 @02:38PM
(#23459367)
"So far" meaning "might save more later" or "only postponed, not prevented"?
Re:Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S...
by LorenPechtel on Monday June 08, 2020 @04:33PM
(#23460451)
By now we have learned that masks + distancing is enough to stop this (Drive R0 below 1, it will die out in time.) If we were serious about doing these things the cases--and deaths--would be prevented, not merely postponed.
Re:Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S...
by oarabbus_ on Monday June 08, 2020 @04:12PM
(#23460249)
The latter. That's always what "flattening the curve" has meant. The total area under the curve (i.e. total unique infected individuals) stays about the same.
Re:Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S...
by thephyber on Monday June 08, 2020 @07:26PM
(#23461915)
"Flattening the curve" is not the only possible outcome.
A cure, an inoculation, or segmenting geographic regions until localized herd immunity (like New Zealand just did) are all examples of cutting the curve short.
Re:Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S...
by oarabbus_ on Tuesday June 09, 2020 @04:13PM
(#23470372)
Vaccines are far away from approval for widespread use, and New Zealand's situation as an island nation is not applicable to something like 98% of the World's population and quite frankly, irrelevant to the discussion.