> That "3 hours" mean that you're likely to loose one of the relatives or friends who are in high risk group

Not arguing one way or the other, but I most certainly would not call it likely. Germany had more deaths than Iceland per capita and none of my relatives or friends are or know anyone even infected, let alone dead.

In Germany, you’d need to know about 440 people to even know someone who has been confirmed infected, in Iceland still around 200. To know someone who died, you’d need to know 9,661 in Germany and 36,363 in Iceland.

I don't live in one of the US hotspots, yet I personally know a person who had COVID (and lived), and have multiple friends who have had relatives die from COVID.

I have a feeling as things open up, more people are going to have my experience.

Of course some people will know someone. I’m not arguing against the danger, or changes, or anything but that it’s "likely to know someone".

Anecdata vs statistics? Some people did die. Some do know them. If no people you know died, does it makes it a media hoax?

Yes, I used statistics. You said it’s likely. I gave numbers on how many people you’d need to know to, on average, know someone who died. Which, considering how high that number is, does not make it seem "likely"

Edit:

> does it makes it a media hoax

Honestly, you completely lost me there. Did you read some other comment and attributed it to me?

edit2: FWIW, I wear a mask when going to the store despite it being only required inside, one of maybe 5% of people who do that. And that’s in a city of 200k with 0 known active cases.

Sure its sucks for some people who die or know people who died but for most other people they won't even notice.

What's what I said up the thread. It's a tragedy for people directly involved even though averaged-out it becomes a cold statistics.

Personally I'd rather not gamble wether I'd end up on tragedy or statistics side.

Technically, life itself is a series of gamble, every choice has its risk and benefit.

> That "3 hours" mean that you're likely to loose one of the relatives or friends who are in high risk group. Suddenly a month of lockdown is worth to give your loved ones years or even decades.

Not even close. For example, no one I know has been directly hurt by the coronavirus. And neither has anyone they know, including my friend from Wuhan.

(Why "directly"? I do know someone who had a mental breakdown related to isolation.)

Most people know more people than the average HN commenter.

I suspect you don't know the fate of everyone known by everyone you know.

> I suspect you don't know the fate of everyone known by everyone you know.

Certain information is significantly more likely than average to be broadcast. Do I know what those people are doing? Do I have any idea who they are? No.

But I do know they haven't been hurt by the coronavirus.

If your personal experience doesn't match statistics, are statistics wrong?