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Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by koenigdavidmj on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:05PM (#23260152)
They've been able to get away with whatever they wanted in Xinjiang because it has no bearing on their economy. But HK has ties to the west, and enough people old enough to remember something resembling liberal government.

HK's only play at this point seems to be the Northern Ireland strategy--be as ungovernable as possible, and rely on China having a bit of shame. I don't see that working, though--the UK in Northern Ireland had a reputation to maintain. I fear that turning HK into a prison camp would do to China's reputation exactly what they want it to do.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by vinay427 on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:20PM (#23261452)
> the UK in Northern Ireland had a reputation to maintain

Evidently not much of a reputation. In this conflict alone, the British state (army and police) shot and killed unarmed protesters, supported paramilitary groups in extrajudicial assassinations (including an attempt on a sitting British politician), indefinitely interned people with no evidence, looked the other way from attacks they could stop (and at least on one occasion even explicitly chose a random civilian to kill instead) if it would protect a source, pursued a strategy for a while of force-feeding certain dissidents, and even made it a crime to display certain flags.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by billfruit on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:21PM (#23261472)
There were massive protests against British rule over the years too. Somehow viewing a colonial government as resembling a liberal government, seems rather incongruent to people who still have a living memory of British colonial rule across the world.

Any way the one country two systems was set to expire in 2047.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by petre on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:23PM (#23260468)
The only viable strategy for individuals is to move out of HK to Taiwan.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by 3pt14159 on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:29PM (#23260572)
Taiwan has a different spoken language and culture than Hong Kong. If I were going to move away from Hong Kong I'd prefer an international, primarily English speaking city like London or Toronto.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by imrehg on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:45PM (#23260831)
Wouldn't be so sure about it, having lived in Taiwan for many years, a lot of my friends there people leaving HK and setting up a new base in Taiwan. The writing is similar (both HK and Taiwan are far from China's simplified Chinese), the spoken language has a lot of commonalities (bunch of dialects in Taiwan that are closer), and the culture & mindset is very close. Not totally a surprise as Taiwan has a lot of dissidents who left China in earlier conflicts, for quite a while back.

So yeah, from personal experience, Hongkongers fit right in coming to Taiwan.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by bitxbitxbitcoin on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:12PM (#23261287)
Agreed. From what I've seen, Taiwanese people are very welcoming of Hongkongers especially in the current political climate. An example would be that of Lam Wing-kee.[1]

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52425350

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by z2 on Friday May 22, 2020 @10:43AM (#23272630)
Yes and no on the language argument. Written Chinese, sure, but Taiwan's Fuzhou/Hokchew-based dialects are far from the Cantonese of HK and neighboring Guangdong/_Canton_. These dialects branched apart very early, about 2000 years ago, and saying they are more similar vs mandarin is kind of like saying that French and Spanish are much closer than French and Italian because Basque is closer to French than standard Italian. Most commonalities in pronunciation are due to both dialects preserving some older Chinese pronunciations, but overall pronunciation and vernacular word choice are very, very different.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by jaaron on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:20PM (#23261456)
While I agree most in Hong Kong would probably prefer to move to other large cities like Vancouver or Sydney, it's not due to language. Having lived in both for many years, most folks in Hong Kong wouldn't have any language trouble in Taiwan, at least not up north towards Taipei.
[dead]
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by robjan on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:37PM (#23261756)
Nonsense. HKers and TW people welcome each other with open arms.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by Shivetya on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:41PM (#23260776)
Well the risk here is that Hong Kong is merely the beginning and based on how the world reacts will determine their action towards Taiwan. They likely will wait till the next US election to take stronger action in either case. They pretty much tipped their hand with mock invasions of Taiwan, can you imagine the international uproar if the US did the same with North Korea?
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by rohan1024 on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:08PM (#23261208)
[Removed: wild theory about pandemic being cause of world wars]
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by SpicyLemonZest on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:13PM (#23261305)
The historical record strongly indicates that people didn't care that much about the 1918 pandemic after it was over. It's not like history was poorly recorded in the 20th century; if people were fighting wars or implementing policies because the public was still angry about the pandemic, that would have been reported in the daily news.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by bitxbitxbitcoin on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:14PM (#23261326)
You seem to have your dates mixed up... The 1918 pandemic is largely accepted as being exacerbated by the end of WW1.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by foxbarrington on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:15PM (#23261361)
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by stOneskull on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:15PM (#23261360)
WW1 ended in 1918. You could theorize that maybe the pandemic made peace.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by intopieces on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:33PM (#23260642)
I think from a business perspective TW is definitely the rise but the real move is towards Singapore.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by rsync on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:28PM (#23261601)
An anecdotal data point ...

We (rsync.net) established Hong Kong as our Asian POP in 2009 for a variety of high-minded, conscientious reasons. I wanted to cast the firms dollar-votes for open, democratic societies and further the establishment of Hong Kong as a business and network hub ... obviously a very small impact but that was the idea.

I am now seriously considering moving our operations out of Hong Kong and Singapore is an obvious candidate for the move. The trouble is, Singapore is not exactly a paragon of free and open society. Australia makes some sense in terms of Internet topology but I'm not sure it's a fit, either.

I'm upset about this because I love Hong Kong. I think it's the most interesting city in the world and I love being there.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by av_engr on Friday May 22, 2020 @01:01AM (#23268788)
The Lee's family is like another CCP, just that they can speak English, went to elite west university, and used economic prosperity as an excuse to push down on dissident or threaten to their power. Singapore is somewhat suppressed and not necessarily free. I agree that Singapore is still most favorable, but there are considerable factors to not move out there.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by nickik on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:43PM (#23260803)
And then the same thing will happen 10-20 years after it happens to HongKong. Probably better just to live in HK, not like China is gone genocide the population.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by free_rms on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:08PM (#23260182)
Point of fact, colonization by the British wasn't exactly 'liberal government'. Anywhere. In HK's case, they only got their limited democracy in the last couple years immediately before handover to China. The 150 years prior, not so much.

Back in the 1980s, while Thatcher and Reagan were preaching about freedom, british-ruled HK had less freedom than they do now under the bad guy commies.

EDIT: This is not to cheerlead a regression of rights in HK. I'm just saying that being an imperial subject, being brutally put down every few decades when revolting, that's not some liberal utopia.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by hker on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:14PM (#23260302)
Note that Beijing limited Hong Kong’s democracy since the 60s, threatening invasion.

See the following articles for the historical context [1][2]:

"Even in the '60s and '70s, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London attempted to introduce democracy and free elections only to be told by Beijing, including by Prime Minister Zhou Enlai, that under no circumstances would [China] tolerate a democratically elected Hong Kong because they saw that as the first step toward independence," she said. [1]

"These documents … show that not only were the Brits mulling granting Hong Kong self-governance in the 1950s; it was the Chinese government under Mao Zedong who quashed these plans, threatening invasion." [2]

[1]: https://asiasociety.org/new-york/why-didnt-britain-democrati...

[2]: https://qz.com/279013/the-secret-history-of-hong-kongs-still...

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by thedudeabides5 on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:52PM (#23260934)
Also note that if they do this, China will be in official violation of the Sino–British Joint Declaration of 1984.

Meaning Hong Kong would technically no longer be part of China, and would revert to British sovereignty.

Meaning, if they pass this law and take over defense/security in HK, they are essentially violating the Hong Kong Basic Law (Constitution) and invading what would then be (through their actions) a foreign country.

Defer to international lawyers on the technicalities, but that's how I've seen this read.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by hker on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:08PM (#23261215)
As an academic exercise of what if the Sino–British Joint Declaration of 1984 is revoked, one alternative possibility to for Hong Kong to join Taiwan (quoting my earlier comment):

Note that Hong Kong was given to the Britain by three treaties in the 19th century (1842 Treaty of Nanking, 1860 Convention of Peking, 1898 The Second Convention of Peking), and the true copies of all treaties are in the hand of Taiwan, which were brought to Taiwan by the KMT government during its retreat to Taiwan before 1950.

So if the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, the declaration behind the handover of Hong Kong from Britain to China, is revoked (partly because CCP declares it invalid), Britain might declare that Hong Kong should return to the holder of the three treaties–Taiwan.

Extremely unlikely, but arguably has legal justification.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by aasasd on Thursday May 21, 2020 @02:31PM (#23262793)
How does this work? If a dude flies to Jamaica with these papers then Jamaica can own HK? Are those, like, bearer shares?
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by hker on Thursday May 21, 2020 @02:39PM (#23262916)
The Britain signed the treaties with the Qing government (the last dynasty in China until 1912), and the bearer shares of the treaties were brought to Taiwan by the KMT government before 1950.

So the issue is: who represents China? The government in Beijing or the government in Taipei?

Later, Britain signed the Sino–British Joint Declaration of 1984 with Beijing to decide the (then) future of Hong Kong. If the Sino–British Joint Declaration is revoked, things could be different.

Just recently US is asking the Beijing government to repay the debt of Qing dynasty [1], which Beijing said would be the responsibility of Taiwan. Following this logic, receiving Hong Kong from Britain could also be the responsibility of Taiwan.

[1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/trump-s-n...

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by free_rms on Thursday May 21, 2020 @06:32PM (#23266297)
That article is amazing. I figured Trump was just shit stirring, I should have known he'd have a relationship with people who've been trading in that debt.

Since 2001! There's a century of this debt getting rolled over to greater fools.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by ngcc_hk on Saturday May 23, 2020 @01:25PM (#23284727)
The Taiwan still claim mainland and they are at civil war still. Well, Hk technically belong to Taiwan.

Having said that one must note Taiwan has a law in the pipeline (1st reading) to give up The claim of mainland. You may be surprise Of communist china Actual objection To it But not HKER or Taiwanese. In any case Even if they keep the claim This path is Only valid In theory but frankly not in Practice.

Personally i will continue our fight. Taiwan has enough of their own problems. If they can free from mainland, That is great already.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by jerf on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:32PM (#23261671)
"they are essentially violating the Hong Kong Basic Law (Constitution) and invading what would then be (through their actions) a foreign country."

Sure. In that case, it would revert to British sovereignty, Britain wouldn't lift a finger to defend it, and it would go to China anyhow by right of conquest.

Treaties are nifty and all, but ultimately, no matter what pieces of paper are signed, you can't hold territory you have no intention to defend.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by thedudeabides5 on Friday May 22, 2020 @05:28AM (#23270169)
Maybe Britain wouldn’t lift a finger but Trump would lift a pen.

Gives legal pretext for any tariffs or sanctions you want, meaning we are at the beginning of these issues not the end...

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by robjan on Thursday May 21, 2020 @01:41PM (#23261825)
A violation or complete destruction of the Joint Declaration does not result in HK returning to Britain because the territory has already been handed over. The consequences aren't really defined and would probably just be sanctions by any nations who happen to care enough.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by DiogenesKynikos on Friday May 22, 2020 @11:36AM (#23273215)
The issue was not democracy, but rather independence of Hong Kong. China did not recognize the legitimacy of Britain's rule over Hong Kong, and considered it part of China. Any move to establish Hong Kong as an independent state would undermine China's claim to the territory.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by free_rms on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:55PM (#23260979)
The UK was actually in charge of HK, not Beijing.

If Beijing were able to control the fate of Hong Kong in the 1950s, they would have, and it wouldn't have been "leave it in british hands, sure, as long as there's no democracy".

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by thenewwazoo on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:15PM (#23260319)
I've never understood this line of thought. Things used to be bad, and it sucked. Then, they got better and that was good. But now if it gets bad again it'll be okay because it used to be bad? Regression away from freedom is always a bad thing.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by free_rms on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:18PM (#23260381)
I didn't say regression was ok, maybe I should have preempted such an accusation since I was criticizing the West.

I pushed back against imperialism dressed up as liberation. Everybody's soooo concerned about Hong Kong civil rights, just like they were about Iraqi civil rights.

Other places, where it's not to our geopolitical advantage? Crickets.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by thenewwazoo on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:28PM (#23260558)
Yes, it would have been better if British imperialists had never decided to stick their swords where they didn't belong, but they did. Whether HK would have been freer today if Britain hadn't done so is conjecture. What we do know is that Britain violently subjugated HK, but before they left they liberalized the place to a greater degree than the CCP would have, as evidenced by the CCP's desire to deliberalize the place.

Bringing up "British rule was no panacea" when we're talking about the CCP's efforts to deliberalize a de facto free society reads like you're apologizing for what the CCP wants to do.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by Normille on Thursday May 21, 2020 @03:18PM (#23263592)
>What we do know is that Britain violently subjugated HK, but before they left they liberalized the place to a greater degree than the CCP would have...

Funny how Britain was happy to rule over Hong Kong for centuries without introducing democratic reform and then suddenly 'liberalised' things only when they were on the point of handing HK back to China. Almost as if it was done with precisely the intent of leaving the Chinese with as much of a hot potato as possible.

They don't call it "Perfidious Albion" for nothing!

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by mannykannot on Thursday May 21, 2020 @10:50PM (#23268243)
> Funny how Britain was happy to rule over Hong Kong for centuries...

Britain first raised its flag over Hong Kong island in 1842. The New Territories, without which Hong Kong is not a viable independent entity, were leased to Britain under a 99-year lease in 1898.

This was a consequence of one of the worst aspects of colonial Britain, the Opium wars, but, as hker points out [1], since the 1960s Britain has attempted to democratize Hong Kong, but was constrained by China's realistic threat of invasion.

There's not much credit to any side here, but let's at least get the history right.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23260302

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by av_engr on Friday May 22, 2020 @01:08AM (#23268828)
Agree on the part about China threatening since the 60s. If I recall correctly, there was a wave of movement on British Colonies raising referendum on independence from Britain since the 60s ? Hong Kong did not earn that right due to Communist China's threat on "liberating" Hong Kong if it was given independence.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by Normille on Friday May 22, 2020 @06:21AM (#23270483)
Can you cite any documentary evidence for these Chinese threats, dating back to the 1960s?

I'm not saying you're wrong but China in the 1960s was an unindustrialised, agrarian 3rd-world country which was barely able to feed its own people. I suspect Britain [a rich, industrialised, nuclear-armed member of NATO] would have laughed in their face, if China had issued any threats.

We shouldn't fall into the trap of looking at the might & modernity of China today and thinking t'was ever thus. I'm old enough to remember when news footage from China would show countless thousands of people, clad in denim boiler suits, riding bicycles through Peking, with nary a car to be seen.

[ASIDE: Ironic that moving towards vehicle-free cities with a cycling populace is now seen as aspirational and a sign of progress whereas, back then, it was an indicator of how backward China was]

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by mannykannot on Friday May 22, 2020 @07:52AM (#23271101)
Go to the post I linked to for more evidence.

Furthermore, remember that it was China's intervention in Korea in the early 1950s that almost overran the US forces in Korea, and forced a negotiated settlement with the creation of two Koreas.

NATO is irrelevant, as that was an alliance for the defence of Western Europe, not small remnants of Britain's colonies. NATO was not about to go to war with China then, any more than it involved itself in Korea.

And what would Britain do with its nukes? Nothing more than the US did in Korea and Viet Nam. If Britain were to even threaten their use, it would seriously damage its relationship with the USA, by creating a precedent that the USSR (and, by 1964, a nuclear China) could invoke at any time. Remember what happened over Suez, which did not even go as far as a nuclear threat.

Even if Britain halted an initial invasion, China would still be there, on the border of Hong Kong, for as long as the British could afford to stay (or until 1997, if it came to that, which it would not.)

None of this analysis is dependent on "looking at the might & modernity of China today and thinking t'was ever thus."

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by av_engr on Wednesday May 27, 2020 @03:09PM (#23328324)
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/world/asia/china-began-pu...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_independence#Colonia...

In the 60s/70s China was in bad terms with Soviet, US/UK saw the benefit of having China as "Allies". Thus, HK kind of became the scapegoat.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by free_rms on Thursday May 21, 2020 @09:29PM (#23267795)
Finally, someone gets it.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by free_rms on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:36PM (#23260691)
I was responding to a comment that characterized British rule as 'liberal government'.

If we're so much better, maybe we can let up on the propaganda and whitewashing of history?

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by thenewwazoo on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:51PM (#23260910)
But it was liberal, except when it wasn’t. It’s not whitewashing to characterize the end result as liberal, and I don’t think it’s necessary or productive to add a disclaimer to every description when the discussion revolves around comparing today’s liberalism (which was a result of British rule) with the CCP’s (which would undoubtedly be less so).

(Edited to specify that the end result was liberal, not the whole thing)

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by 0xFFC on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:23PM (#23260461)
Yeah, that is the thing, western mindset does not comprehend imperialism.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by thenewwazoo on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:52PM (#23260926)
I can comprehend imperialism just fine, thanks. In fact I get to see my government do it even today, despite my literal protest.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by 0xFFC on Thursday May 21, 2020 @03:12PM (#23263496)
Don't get me wrong, I have nothing but deep respect for you personally since I don't know you. I was talking about more broad western mindset.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by RavlaAlvar on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:16PM (#23260334)
Have you considered that China had vocally threatened military action against democratisation.
Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by alehul on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:13PM (#23260279)
What are some examples of British-ruled HK citizens having less freedom than today’s PRC citizens?

From my limited knowledge, the government of Hong Kong was quite liberal, which created its large economic inequality, low literacy rate, and high spot in the freedom index today. Many would argue it was too liberal in some senses.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by nickik on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:47PM (#23260854)
It maybe was not democratic, but its pretty hard to complain about your rulers if they transformed a poor small town into one of the richest places in the world, with pretty much every freedom of a comparable western democracy arguable in many aspects more free.

Exactly how were the people not free, in the 1980s?

Do you think its impossible to have freedom without local democracy?

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by free_rms on Thursday May 21, 2020 @02:40PM (#23262938)
That's actually how a lot of mainland Chinese feel about their government, and I can sympathize with them to an extent.

But it doesn't undo other things about their government, it's just a fuller picture. Same applies to UK colonialism.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by koenigdavidmj on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:42PM (#23260790)
Sure, I'm not saying it's "free and fair elections", but it had a functioning, western-style court system, a level of free speech recognizable to any part of the west, things like that.

And given that the UK itself has most of these things, I highly doubt they'd arbitrarily deny them to a dependent territory without good reason (especially when their other territories all have some measure of representative government). Other comments describing Chinese threats provide one possible good reason.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by free_rms on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:45PM (#23260833)
> And given that the UK itself has most of these things, I highly doubt they'd arbitrarily deny them to a dependent territory without good reason (especially when their other territories all have some measure of representative government).

Setting aside HK, we apparently have very different reads on how the British Empire acted everywhere else, as well.

Re:China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong by koenigdavidmj on Thursday May 21, 2020 @12:51PM (#23260914)
Apples to apples--I'm comparing Hong Kong in 1995 to the rest of the mostly-self-governing British territories in 1995. I'm not comparing them to India in the 1940s (as the most obvious example of the Brits' abuse of other peoples they ruled).