hker

Sending planes close to Taiwan, threatening invasion everyday, like what Russia did before invading Ukraine?

Was Russia merely challenging American superiority?

Quantity ≠ Quality.

> Chen-Ning Yang was technically not wrong with his 1998 prediction, since Tu Youyou got 1/3 of the 2015 Nobel in medicine, but it didn't really make sense for him to link this to continued development, since the delay between discovery and award means that most of the prizes from 1998–2018 were for work that was already done before he made his prediction.

Agreed. Though to nitpick, the part on “even more than one, if the country’s economic development continues at its current rate” is technically wrong, if we just count Chinese Nobel scientists developed in Mainland China (only Tu Youyou).

Chen-Ning Yang was bullish on Chinese science, but reality did not deliver.

Shing-Tung Yau is as bullish on Chinese mathematics in the future, but even he admitted that China is still decades behind in mathematical research, due to systematic issue which ‘“places too much emphasis on material rewards” and tends to encourage young researchers to work for titles instead of scientific advancements’. [1]

[1]: https://archive.is/MRDlP "China has problems to solve before its mathematics research can rise above WWII levels, scholar says"

This is a problem with the culture of science.

> I don't think even the Cultural Revolution or anything else Mao did had much of an effect on Nobel prize-worthy research, simply because there wasn't much to disrupt to begin with.

Count points:

- Intellectuals, academics, and teachers were persecuted, attacked, and killed by the youth (the Red Guards), in all schools and institutions in China.

- Search for “scholars killed during the cultural revolution”, or “list of scholars abnormally died in China during the cultural revolution” (or for a short list in Chinese https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/中华人民共和国被迫害人士列表#科学技术人士). This includes the leader of Two Bombs, One Satellite (nuclear weapon, ICBM, artificial satellite) 赵九章. Besides, those returned from overseas were considered traitors or spies, and just within the Chinese Academy of Sciences (top science institution), there are 229 scholars died due to the Cultural Revolution [1]. This destroyed the environment needed to do great science. Imagine if Yang went back to China in the early 1950s.

[1]: https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/74771/201904/2157.html "文革时中科院131位科学家被打倒 229人遭迫害致死"

> I guess we'll see Chinese scientists winning Nobels at a rate commensurate with other big countries in 20–40 years or so.

Such predictions—Chinese scientists will win more science Nobels—has been made long ago. In 1998, “The Chinese-American Nobel Laureate Chen Ning Yang has also predicted that mainland scientists will win a prize within twenty years – even more than one, if the country’s economic development continues at its current rate.“ [2]

[2]: https://china-us.uoregon.edu/pdf/Minerva-2004.pdf "CHINESE SCIENCE AND THE ‘NOBEL PRIZE COMPLEX’"

But reality shows otherwise, not until scientists and academics are respected in China. During COVID, politics overruled science, resulting in the Zero-COVID policy, which were brought down by widespread protests, not by science (counter evidence to the ineffectiveness of the Zero-COVID policy).

Unless you are implying that you predict a regime change by that time...

> 9 if you count people...

13 according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_Nobel_laureate..., including peace prize laureates Liu Xiaobo (2010) and the 14th Dalai Lama (1989).

> But, since the Nobel was established, China has been invaded...

> The US has been invaded zero times...

The number of external invasions is not a strong indicator of the number of Nobel Prizes, if you compare all countries, beyond just China or the US.

And as you mentioned, the Cultural Revolution greatly reduces the chance of Chinese Nobel, so internal events can take a large role. And Mao led to more deaths—not to mention destruction to science and culture—than external invasions in the last century combined.

> The civil wars also brought to power brutal dictatorships...

The dictatorship arguably hasn't ended, by taking another less brutal form. And to be precise, CCP brought the civil wars and its consequences, not the civil wars brought dictatorships.

CCP has been posturing selectively in the name of its National Security. As Macro Rubio put it this month: “They like to play these games. They put out these translations where it says one thing in English and then it’s translated in a different – they use a different term in Mandarin”. [1] CCP shows different faces to different audiences selectively.

Rubio was sanctioned twice by CCP in 2020 for speaking up for human rights [2], but was quietly given a different Chinese surname in 2025, possibly to avoid the question of whether he is still under CCP’s sanction as the current US Secretary of State [3]. When asked, CCP gave vague answers [4].

For a similar story, Mike Pence when visiting Hong Kong last month called for China to release the imprisoned publisher Jimmy Lai [5]. Pence was mentioned in the National Security case of Jimmy Lai, which is to say Jimma Lai allegedly violated the National Security Law of Hong Kong by collaborating with foreign adversaries, in particular Mike Pence. But Mike Pence had no problem entering and exiting Hong Kong, only Jimma Lai had, despite the NSL applying to “anyone on Earth, regardless of nationality or location” [6], and had targeted US citizen living in the US before [7].

CCP postures selectively, with a very fluid definition of an enemy of the state, which often does not follow what they say in letter.

[1]: https://de.usembassy.gov/secretary-rubio-on-the-megyn-kelly-... "Secretary Marco Rubio with Megyn Kelly of The Megyn Kelly Show"

[2]: https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-tells-rubio-behave-himself-... "China tells Rubio to behave himself in veiled warning"

[3]: https://www.newsweek.com/china-news-gives-new-name-us-secret... "China Gives Marco Rubio New Name"

[4]: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202501/1327371.shtml "Chinese FM responds to change in official translation of Marco Rubio’s surname"

[5]: https://www.reuters.com/world/former-us-vice-president-mike-... "Former US Vice-President Mike Pence visits Hong Kong"

[6]: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/07/hong-kong-nat... "Hong Kong’s national security law: 10 things you need to know"

[7]: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/hong-kong-issues-arrest-w... "Hong Kong issues arrest warrant for U.S. citizen under new national security law"

What goes around comes around: Elon Musk’s DOGE is using AI to target cuts [1], and may target the IRS [2].

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/06/elon-musk-d...

[2] https://www.timesnownews.com/world/us/us-news/doge-to-audit-...

> destroy communication infrastructure

Chinese ships are just “testing the waters” this week by cutting the Internet cables near Taiwan.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42615939 "Chinese Vessel Cuts Taiwan Internet Cable in Apparent Sabotage"

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/china/undersea-cable-taiwan-i... "A cut undersea internet cable is making Taiwan worried about ‘gray zone’ tactics from Beijing"

Possibly related articles on the recent issues with banks in China:

* China's banking turmoil: 40 banks vanish, Jiangxi leads collapse: https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/other/china-s-banking-turmoi... | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40944836

* Small banks in China are running into trouble. Savers could lose everything: https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/23/economy/china-bank-runs-prote...

> The Journal, my supervisor said, did not want its reporters seen calling for greater freedoms—because, unlike in Western nations, it is not an established principle in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong ranked pretty high in Press Freedom: 18th in 2002, around 60th before 2014 (when Xi took power and the Umbrella protest broke out), then it went downhill and suddenly dropped to lower than 130th after the 2019 protest and the recent national security law [1].

It is an uphill battle under the rule of an authoritarian government which disregards freedom.

[1]: See the graph “Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index: Hong Kong” at https://hongkongfp.com/2024/07/19/wall-st-journal-union-urge...

Summarizing one of the main points of the article:

> If you watch an anime or a TV series "about" fighting, … getting better at techniques you already know is often more effective than having a portfolio of hundreds of "moves".

> Relatedly, Joy Ebertz says:

> One piece of advice I got at some point was to amplify my strengths. … How can you turn something you’re good at into your superpower?

“I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who had practiced one kick 10,000 times.” —— Bruce Lee

Native Cantonese speaker here, glad that you are interested in learning Cantonese.

I am working with other volunteers to improve Cantonese teaching, and wonder what difficulties you have encountered when learning Cantonese, and what materials or communities would be helpful for Cantonese learners.

On the other side, China blocks WhatsApp, Threads, Signal, Telegram on the Chinese App Store.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40085214 "Apple deletes WhatsApp, Threads from China app store on orders from Beijing" (110 points, 1 day ago, 127 comments)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40092127 "Apple Pulls WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal, and Threads from App Store in China" (7 points, 1 day ago, 6 comments)

Reminds me of the Requests for Startups from Y Combinator this week:

...

3. New defense technology

4. Bring manufacturing back to America

...

https://www.ycombinator.com/rfs

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39371805

China has a No First Use policy on nuclear weapons.

Russia threatens to use nuclear, even without being hit with nuclear.

> Also, as the war in Ukraine proves, you don't need cutting edge chips to inflict worlds of pain on another country, but 100+ year old tech of mortar cannons and shells are more than enough.

Worth noting the difference in scale between Russia (1.3m active personnel) and Ukraine (0.2m active personnel), the West are not directly participating in the battlefields (due to nuclear threats), and that Russia is connected to Ukraine by land.

For the Chinese case, the US has been very clear about sending armies to defend Taiwan, which is separated from China by sea.

So a technological gap can be a sufficient deterrent for the Chinese case, while less so for the Russian case.

> Foxconn's founder Terry Gou is running as an independent candidate in Taiwan's presidential election that is due to take place in January.

For those following the Taiwan election, this explains a lot. China wants the Taiwanese ruling party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), to lose, and it wants the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) to win. But Terry Gou could not get the nomination to run for KMT, so he ran as an independent candidate. This makes KMT and related opposition even weaker against DPP in the coming election.

Hence the tax inspections at Foxconn, which is owned by Terry Gou. This might deter Terry Gou from running in the election.

But the flip side is that the Chinese economy desperately needs foreign investments, so punishing Foxconn may scare away foreign investments and hurt China even further.