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Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by ineedasername on Sunday May 17, 2020 @09:17PM (#23217194)
It's no surprise that a couple of economists might disagree about it: The definition of the American Dream isn't one upon which everyone would agree to begin with. However, a common theme is something like social/economic mobility without regard to circumstances of birth. And to that extent, it would be hard to argue that the American Dream has been universally available to all Americans at most points in our history.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by sokoloff on Sunday May 17, 2020 @09:27PM (#23217233)
I would argue that perfect social/economic mobility is probably not only unattainable but perhaps even undesirable. It should be high, such that gifted children of any background can flourish, but should almost surely fall short of whatever 100% “everyone draws straws” perfectly uncorrelated would be.

I believe that raising the next generation is our most solemn obligation as parents. It seems overwhelmingly likely that this would confer some benefit to the more well-to-do that cannot be entirely eliminated short of universal boarding schools and even that might not be enough.

Why do children of professors grow up to be professors, doctors to doctors, plumbers to plumbers, etc? I’m sure there’s some genetic component, but I suspect the overwhelming influence is what they experienced and how they were raised. When I was growing up, both my parents were teachers and at some young age, I just assumed that literally every adult was a teacher. It was the only job I knew and saw daily.

I believe that having and even encouraging parents to strive, scrimp, save, and sacrifice for their children is an overall positive force for society. My parents benefited greatly from it, as did I, as will my kids. If you took the actions required to make outcomes totally uncorrelated, I think you’d remove a lot of this sacrifice and effort that society benefits from when parents raise their kids to be “better off” than they were.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by badrabbit on Sunday May 17, 2020 @09:34PM (#23217269)
So being "gifted" should factor in? What if I and many others care about character and empathy much more than any intellectual capacity?

It's always been the idea and should be that those who do right,act honest and work hard even if they don't work smart, should have upward mobility, as in regardless of birth you can enter the lower mid-class tier. Obviously your talent and skill should and would determine your mobility to upper and upper-middle class.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by sokoloff on Sunday May 17, 2020 @09:40PM (#23217310)
That was just one example, but yes, I’d certainly hope that being particularly gifted in some dimension of life would factor in to outcomes. Maybe that’s having a cannon of a pitching arm, outstanding musical or singing ability, or particularly strong academic performance.

Society benefits when the best scientists are working on science, the best mathematicians at math, the best musicians are performing, and even when the best athletes are playing pro sports. I’d like these talented people to be able to develop, showcase, and benefit from their talents without regard to who their parents are.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by badrabbit on Sunday May 17, 2020 @10:01PM (#23217420)
You don't get it. This isn't about society benefiting but society stabilizing. If someone is dumb as bricks and has no meaningful talents or interests they use to be able to find some hard labor,manual work or low level trade jobs that lets them enter the lower middle class (under $50k/yr iirc). If a person is talented they would fare far better. This is very practical in the richest country.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by SpicyLemonZest on Sunday May 17, 2020 @10:31PM (#23217616)
This claim would imply that, at some point in American history, every single person below the middle class was just a lazy bum who couldn't be bothered to get a good job. I'm not sure that's true and I kinda suspect you don't think so either.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by badrabbit on Sunday May 17, 2020 @10:44PM (#23217721)
I don't think so either, the operating phrase there is "even if" ,and no,that excludes lazy people and criminals. Honest,law abiding and hard working would translate to a livable life however below average it may be. And it has always been a dream that only some live up to. For many classes of society,this has never been true.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by throwafellow on Monday May 18, 2020 @12:45PM (#23224822)
If you chronically underpay and exploit people of lower class who aren't dumb as bricks then you create a class of lazy people and criminals who act that way because they are aware that they have no other choices.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by brmgb on Tuesday May 19, 2020 @04:16AM (#23232543)
"what else is to be concluded from this, but that you first make thieves and then punish them.”

Thomas More, Utopia

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by zozbot234 on Sunday May 17, 2020 @11:21PM (#23217975)
> some hard labor,manual work or low level trade jobs

That kind of work is still valued, just less so than before. It makes sense to supplement low incomes with UBI or negative income tax, so that no one is denied a tolerably comfortable life. Our social safety nets are totally unfit for the present world, they're still built for the assumption that high-paying manual work is everywhere.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by badrabbit on Monday May 18, 2020 @05:56AM (#23220418)
I don't disagree with your sentiment at all.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by throwafellow on Monday May 18, 2020 @12:43PM (#23224780)
How would you reduce the polarization of the population between upper and lower classes?
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by badrabbit on Monday May 18, 2020 @01:18PM (#23225339)
The fact that a person in a lower economic class has a livable wage will solve many problems. Home ownership, affording a family and health care will east most economic friction. As far as social polarizarion, I think that's an entirely different topic,two people of high income can be socially and politically polarized for non-economical reasons.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by sokoloff on Monday May 18, 2020 @04:27PM (#23227936)
I would suggest that a stable housing situation and outlook (even if not owned) might be sufficient on the housing side. Part of the renting problem in the US isn't the ownership arrangement, but rather the precariousness.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by akhilcacharya on Sunday May 17, 2020 @09:56PM (#23217387)
And if you’re not exceptional in that narrow band kick rocks?
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by sokoloff on Sunday May 17, 2020 @09:59PM (#23217409)
If you’re the average person, I think it’s reasonable to expect an average outcome. In the modern world that should still be quite an enjoyable life, but for self-evident reasons, I would not expect everyone to have an above-average life.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by akhilcacharya on Monday May 18, 2020 @02:25AM (#23219022)
Yikes. Mask really coming off here.

I hope those of us that didn't go to MIT like you have a place in this society.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by esotericn on Monday May 18, 2020 @08:07AM (#23221297)
He's literally saying that a 49th percentile person will definitionally only be able to have a 49th percentile life under any system.

Well, I suppose you could perform random shuffling. 50% of people will still end up with a below average outcome, though.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by sokoloff on Monday May 18, 2020 @08:37AM (#23221534)
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by throwafellow on Monday May 18, 2020 @12:47PM (#23224851)
What is a 49th percentile person measured by if not the fact that they have a 49th percentile life?
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by esotericn on Monday May 18, 2020 @01:07PM (#23225175)
Precisely.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by akhilcacharya on Monday May 18, 2020 @08:37AM (#23221545)
Except of course he only really provided examples of “gifted” people breaking through. I’m not gifted and have the college diploma to prove it - where does he think the ceiling should be for me I wonder?
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by esotericn on Monday May 18, 2020 @08:46AM (#23221615)
You're the one talking about ceilings.

His point is that true social mobility would be literally hitting the random button repeatedly. It's obviously not a workable idea.

Someone has to lose, even if you perform a magical full reset once per year, in any given year half of the people will be below average.

The goal of course is that we make sure that everyone has a decent life even if they're not at the top.

I think you've jumped on his comment and assumed that he doesn't care at all about anyone who's not in the top N% which isn't a charitable reading.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by sokoloff on Monday May 18, 2020 @08:43AM (#23221591)
I'm not even sure your argument here is in good faith, but I'll take one more shot at it.

Holding a 4-year bachelors degree puts you in about the top 1/3rd in academic outcomes (meaning you personally are 50/50 to be in the top 1/6th).

It's not for me nor anyone else to define your ceiling, but I would expect based on the limited data presented and, to the extent that academics is a predictor of outcome, that your outcome would be quite likely to be above the average. That you're engaged on news.yc is another generally positively correlated term I would think.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by unclebucknasty on Monday May 18, 2020 @03:15AM (#23219294)
So, tying this into your previous comment, you've said that society is better off when "parents scrimp, save, and sacrifice" for their children, but many should expect their children to have average or even subpar/unenjoyable lives, regardless of that sacrifice.

Doesn't sound like a desirable society.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by sokoloff on Monday May 18, 2020 @06:42AM (#23220722)
What’s the alternative? That parents don’t invest their time, money, and attention on their children, instead hedonistically consuming every last bit of whatever they have for their own adult pursuits?

I see every increment of improvement a parent (or other guiding figure) helps a child to achieve as being like a small hammer tap improving the future for that child and the society in which they will go on to live.

The fact that, regardless of anything anyone does, many will lead an average life is just straightforward application of the Intermediate Value Theorem. To be clear, I said “average” not “unenjoyable”; in fact, I tried to quite explicitly/literally say the opposite, but perhaps my words were chosen poorly or otherwise misled the reader.

A large number of these small hammer taps though can improve that average greatly over time, as we’ve experienced over the generations since humans have lived in societies. In about 14 generations we went from first proving the Earth revolved around the sun to landing humans on the moon. Fourteen! Four generations from the patent of the telephone to the release of NCSA Mosaic. Four! One more generation and most of us are carrying around Star Trek communicators that we can use to argue with each other about how to best shape educational processes for societal benefit.

The pace and inexorability of academic and technical progress blows my mind. I think we should be very cautious about disrupting that in the pursuit of perfect equality of outcome.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by unclebucknasty on Monday May 18, 2020 @06:30PM (#23229142)
>What’s the alternative? That parents don’t invest their time, money, and attention on their children, instead hedonistically consuming every last bit of whatever they have for their own adult pursuits?

Of course parents should invest in their kids and try to give them every opportunity. But, there's a big difference between parents investing in their kids and advocating a status quo that every parent "scrimp, save, and sacrifice" to give their kids a fighting chance. It's a poor design.

One, it will invariably leave some kids behind, especially given our current wealth disparities. And, yes, even some "gifted" kids will be left behind.

Two, giving kids opportunities shouldn't bury parents and push them to the brink. Education is too high. Housing is too high, etc. In many cities, housing costs are driven by a desire for areas with better public schools, pushing them so high that they are out of reach for many.

So, no amount of scrimping, sacrificing, etc. will allow people of certain income levels to provide their kids certain opportunities. They're doing these things just to survive.

Three, there is an opportunity threshold that provides for a minimum reasonable expectation for a good quality life. Beyond that, it's largely incremental. For too many, that minimum threshold is uncrossable, irrespective of their best efforts.

And, this doesn't even speak to the fact that stressed out parents working multiple jobs to provide these opportunities spend less time with their kids--that being a proven marker of outcomes.

The result: what you advocate is unhealthy and unworkable. This "scrimp & sacrifice" scheme is sub-optimal for both personal fulfillment and maximizing social contributions. Both things are necessary for a happy, thriving society.

Elsewhere you said you'd like to "ensure people of all conditions can develop their potential". Advocating that each parent scrimp & sacrifice is in direct opposition to this.

>To be clear, I said “average” not “unenjoyable”

You also said:

>If you’re the average person, I think it’s reasonable to expect an average outcome. In the modern world that should still be quite an enjoyable life

If average people have average outcomes, leading to an enjoyable life, then it stands to reason that "below-average" people will have below average outcomes, leading to...what exactly?

I think you want to sweep that under the rug b/c it doesn't comport with your "hey, if all parents just scrimp & sacrifice everything will be OK" proposition.

In all, your theories about how things should work necessarily omit the existence of a large portion of the population: everyone is somehow "average" and above, providing an "enjoyable" life for all, and parents investing in their kids means foregoing one extra Starbucks run per-week.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by sokoloff on Tuesday May 19, 2020 @09:19AM (#23234540)
You raise several excellent points and thank you for taking the time. I was wearing slight blinders on some points.

On the average life point, I think you're reading something into the text that isn't there. I think 95% of people or more have enjoyable lives. Everyone enjoys eating and socializing with their family and friends. Absent terrible health issues, most everyone can have an enjoyable life and those who don't probably are limited by medical, psychological, or other factors which are typically not primarily educational/financial.

Stating that the average life is quite enjoyable doesn't imply to me that the 25th percentile or 10th percentile life is dire. Both of my grandfathers had relatively tough lives, certainly much more difficult than my parents or my own. Both of them also seemed to relish every month and every year and enjoy it, even if they didn't enjoy every single hour (neither do I).

It would be as if saying "the average RGB pixel color of your screen is #aaaaaa, which is still quite bright" led to the conclusion that a great many pixels on the screen were #000000 and that's unfair.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by pessimizer on Sunday May 17, 2020 @10:22PM (#23217564)
> society benefits from when parents raise their kids to be “better off” than they were.

Society doesn't benefit from this. Low-status jobs still have to be filled, at least until technology eliminates them. Making sure that your kids aren't the ones that do them isn't a benefit to anyone but you and your kids.

> I believe that having and even encouraging parents to strive, scrimp, save, and sacrifice for their children is an overall positive force for society.

This is less a thing that doctors have to do than a thing that plumbers have to do.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by derrick_jensen on Sunday May 17, 2020 @11:15PM (#23217940)
>Society doesn't benefit from this. Low-status jobs still have to be filled, at least until technology eliminates them.

Its purely additive. Being well off doesn't mean you can't do these jobs, just that better options are available. Market forces will make the pay desirable if they are needed more than they currently are.

>This is less a thing that doctors have to do than a thing that plumbers have to do.

Sure, but it doesn't change the fact it's a good idea. I'd even argue that most blue collar jobs, in having less obligations and a more clock-in-clock-out mentality, frees up parents to spend more time with their children.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by zozbot234 on Sunday May 17, 2020 @11:11PM (#23217913)
Low-status jobs are low-status because they don't really need to be filled, at least not at the current margin. Seeking a "high-status" job, for oneself or one's kids, is by and large a socially-beneficial activity.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by throwphoton on Sunday May 17, 2020 @10:41PM (#23217692)
Why should society accommodate "the gifted" instead of the other way around? Highly talented individuals almost intrinsically less in need of society's assistance.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by esotericn on Monday May 18, 2020 @09:00AM (#23221756)
Because society needs their assistance.

The alternative is that you end up with nonsense like hungry grads working at FAANG to fuck the world.

Channeling people into useful pursuits pays dividends.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by sokoloff on Monday May 18, 2020 @06:59AM (#23220842)
I want a poor, black child with outstanding talent to be able to have that talent identified, nurtured, developed, and maximized. Based on what I see in my fairly progressive town (Cambridge, MA), I don’t think we’ve gotten to even this basic level of equality of opportunity.

It is not about society’s accommodation/assistance of specifically the gifted but rather about ensuring that people of all conditions can develop their potential. Society should care about this because it’s the long-term flywheel that improves the human condition.

The pie can get bigger, too. It’s not just about dividing a fixed pie most evenly.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by leetcrew on Monday May 18, 2020 @11:06AM (#23223241)
why should "the gifted" accommodate society if it intends to give them nothing in return for their excess productivity?
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by 1996 on Monday May 18, 2020 @12:45PM (#23224825)
I agree on the basics, but society provides 2 things: a very comfortable salary to get good and services, but even more important than that: it alleges boredom

The practical world is full of interesting problems. Gifted humans need to really feel useful (to put their gift at use) more than they need the matching income.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by leetcrew on Monday May 18, 2020 @02:43PM (#23226686)
there's a lot of evidence in the open source community that people don't necessarily need to be paid (a lot or at all) to do work they find interesting. it's great that some people are willing to do this, but I don't think it's fair in general for society to benefit from the work and have the only reward be the satisfaction of a job well done, unless the people doing the work are okay with that.

furthermore, there may be a lot of overlap between useful/important and interesting work, but I doubt they map perfectly. there probably needs to be some material reward for important work so that it gets done even if it's boring.

I certainly don't think we have a great state of affairs today. some people get paid huge amounts of money to do work that I feel is harmful. imo the goal should be to take care of everyone's basic needs, but also to reward people proportionately for their contribution to society.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by unclebucknasty on Sunday May 17, 2020 @11:29PM (#23218021)
>I believe that having and even encouraging parents to strive, scrimp, save, and sacrifice for their children is an overall positive force for society

Compared to what?

Doesn't society most benefit from members who are fulfilled via actualization of their potential? Wouldn't that mean more content people and more contributions to society?

Is requiring parents to "scrimp, save, and sacrifice" really the optimal design for achieving this?

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by ineedasername on Sunday May 17, 2020 @09:49PM (#23217354)
I was referring to people mostly or wholely denied such mobility regardless of aptitude.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by maxerickson on Sunday May 17, 2020 @09:51PM (#23217365)
The other way to look at this is that you are punishing children that draw parents that don't care.

I think it's likely that society will probably work better with high mobility vs the random draw that "perfect" mobility requires, but that's a fuzzy feeling based on human groups being complex, not the distilled moralization that you are using.

I suppose the less complicated discussion is about raising the baseline outcome being better than working to make outcomes the same. Raising the baseline is about absolute outcomes rather than relative outcomes, so the latter aren't as big a piece of the discussion.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by pessimizer on Sunday May 17, 2020 @10:34PM (#23217645)
> you are punishing children that draw parents that don't care.

Worse: you are punishing poor children who don't draw parents who sacrifice everything until they rest in an early grave, while rich children who have parents who don't remember how many kids they have after a few drinks get every opportunity in the world.

This is a specifically middle-class moralization that defines merit as the product of the ability to suffer and "giftedness," and measures merit by looking at outcomes.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by AnimalMuppet on Monday May 18, 2020 @12:54PM (#23224949)
Rich kids such as you describe get every opportunity except one: having parents that actually care about them. Don't minimize how much it hurts to not have that. (I don't just mean psychological hurt, either. I mean things like broken relationships, drug use, and suicide - things that can destroy the ability of talent to manifest itself in any productive way.)
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by ls612 on Monday May 18, 2020 @07:23PM (#23229549)
I’d take that any day over having rich parents who are control freaks and dress that up as “caring” (but really only caring that I get good grades and follow their standards of ‘morally upstanding’)

There’s a huge distance between the majority of parents who “care” in that way and those who truly care about their children.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by papeda on Sunday May 17, 2020 @10:23PM (#23217569)
I'm not sure random draws are even better from a zoomed-out "total welfare" score. People get lot of value from preparing for the future and believing good things will probably happen, especially when it comes to their kids. The random straws outcome makes that impossible. That's a lot of utility to leave on the table.

The flip side is that parents who could not ordinarily build for their kids' futures might feel better. I wonder if that's enough to compensate.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by maxerickson on Sunday May 17, 2020 @10:55PM (#23217801)
Yes, my second paragraph is addressing random draws probably not being ideal.

But I'm saying that I think that because humans and groups of humans are complicated, not just because I think it's important to reward parents that value and plan for their children's future.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by nickysielicki on Sunday May 17, 2020 @11:16PM (#23217948)
My grandfather (still alive) had his Polish village burned down and he found himself doing forced labor in Germany during WWII at the age of 14. Not only was there not much to return to, the borders were redrawn and his previous hometown wasn't even in a country that he held citizenship in.

He came to the US and worked in the forges for Falk in Milwaukee. He didn't speak English, but he worked hard, lived responsibly, and paid for the education of his two children. My dad became an electrical engineer, and my uncle got a doctorate in veterinary medicine and owned a clinic. Going a generation further, me and all my siblings have college degrees from great schools. This whole story plays out from 1940 to the present day.

I'm just trying to understand where it is that my family got lucky, and why I should feel sour about this country and the opportunities it gave us. Where else on Earth is this possible? How did we get so lucky, and why is everyone so sure that it wasn't just that we worked hard and had the right priorities?

“The ~Christian Ideal~ American Dream has not been tried and found wanting. It has been found difficult; and left untried.”

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by clawedjird on Monday May 18, 2020 @06:33AM (#23220663)
> I'm just trying to understand where it is that my family got lucky

Really? Did you read the article? Raj Chetty's work on inter-generational mobility should make it obvious where your family got lucky. Your grandfather's story resembles many others from that time period. If he was even able to immigrate to the US today, as a contemporary version of his 1940's self, he wouldn't find nearly the same level of opportunity.

> Where else on Earth is this possible?

I would agree that there are economic benefits to being a global hegemon. Today, however, at least based on measures of social mobility, your family's rise would be more possible in Western Europe than the US.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by rayiner on Monday May 18, 2020 @08:36AM (#23221525)
Chetty’s work lumps together a lot of different people with very different circumstances. An Asian American born in the bottom 20% has a 25% chance of ending up in the top 20%: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/27/upshot/make-y.... Hispanic men born in lowest 20% have a 15% chance of ending up in the top 20%. That’s a high level of mobility. But black men raised in the bottom 20%, the chances of rising to the top are just 7%.

If you compare the US to for example Denmark, you can see that the lack of opportunity is concentrated in the bottom 20%. That is to say, income mobility is similar between the countries for people in the lower middle class, but not at the very bottom: https://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2012/01/05/economic-mo...

The various data taken together strongly suggests something else is at work rather than the economic system itself. Poor Asians, poor Hispanics, and poor blacks face the same economic system. For them to have vastly different outcomes in terms of economic mobility, the explanation is likely to be something apart from the economic system. What is billed as a matter of economic mobility may well turn out to be more of a story about the criminal justice system, systemic racism, the lasting effects of segregation, etc.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by bsder on Sunday May 17, 2020 @11:33PM (#23218034)
The issue is that there is NO job today for that immigrant who doesn't speak English--let alone one that supports a family in this day and age--let alone one that pays for college.

And why should you feel sour? There is nothing wrong with being lucky.

However, the problem is that too many lucky people assume that their result is due to work rather than luck and then attribute a lack of result to a lack of work instead of a lack of luck.

This is akin to winning the lottery jackpot and then blaming other people not hitting the lottery because they just didn't buy enough tickets rather than the odds being explicitly stacked against them.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by mech422 on Monday May 18, 2020 @06:15PM (#23229018)
The problem I see with this line of thought is it tends to minimize personnel responsibility and overlooks the fact that everyone has _bad_ luck as well as good.. I had the 'bad luck' not to be born rich, should I let that define my life? or should I wait around for some 'good luck' to change that ?

The argument reminds me of the old religious debates about 'free will' vs 'destiny'...if some god already knows every decision we will make, and we make 'evil' decisions, were we destined to be 'evil' ? If a 'god' with perfect knowledge already knows we will make these 'evil' decisions, did we really have a choice (eg if we choose to be good, the 'gods' knowledge is no longer perfect..)

Just seems like a great way to remove personal responsibility from the conversation. Yes, we all have been lucky (and have all had bad luck..) but yes, you have to make the most of it as well.

Having the awesome luck to win the lotto doesn't really matter, if you never take the personal responsibility to cash in the ticket.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by bsder on Monday May 18, 2020 @06:29PM (#23229138)
> I had the 'bad luck' not to be born rich, should I let that define my life?

No, but what we, as a society, need to do is cut down on how much luck you need in order to move up.

There was a very nice article at one point that showed that the absolute best students who come from the lowest 20% of the socioeconomic strata barely do as well as the absolute worst students of the highest 20% of the socioeconomic strata. It's basically a proof of "Einstein may exist in <insert poor country>, but we will never know."

That is a hideous loss of human potential. We, as a society, need brilliant people to achieve their maximum potential without luck. And we need people less than absolutely brilliant to not have to fight so stupidly hard to move up.

We had an article (I believe in the LA Times) talking about the problems of the disincentives of being a student from an underprivileged background. The biggest thing that struck me was that STEM fields were simply not in scope--the students coming from these backgrounds simply were blocked. Social worker, lawyer, nurse, etc. were achievable but engineer, scientist, or doctor were absolutely not--through no fault of their own other than the area in which they were born.

You can only fix this by putting a very significant amount of more resource into your education system.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by mech422 on Monday May 18, 2020 @07:10PM (#23229467)
>No, but what we, as a society, need to do is cut down on how much luck you need in order to move up.

Perhaps a good place to start would be by talking about 'opportunities' and not 'luck'. Luck is a passive thing that happens to you (for better or worse) whereas opportunities require effort (aka personal responsibility) to make the most of.

for instance, I would agree wholeheartedly that a society should try to maximize the opportunities available to all its citizens.

>You can only fix this by putting a very significant amount of more resource into your education system.

I would disagree here. Education is not the only opportunity available to people. More access to small business loans, for instance, would be desirable IMHO. And of course, access to medical care is on everyone's mind atm...Although, I do think we need better education across the board.

>we need people less than absolutely brilliant to not have to fight so stupidly hard to move up.

Thinking about this a lil more - I'm not really sure 'moving up' should be the end goal? Perhaps, "not have to fight so stupidly hard to have a fulfilling life"? As people keep telling me, there is more to life then work.

Perhaps our fixation with 'moving up' is half the problem? It seems to be a fairly American concept - other cultures don't seem to share our fixation/fascination with the 'almighty dollar'.

Eh...time for coffee...

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by Barracoon on Monday May 18, 2020 @04:39PM (#23228055)
This commencement speech from Arnold Schwarzenegger hopefully helps you understand where your family got lucky (text and video on this page). Arnold worked incredibly hard for his success, just like it sounds your family did. However, he did not live in a vacuum - he got lucky in many ways. He got lucky that he was born with genes that allowed him to maximize his grueling weight lifting routines to pack on mass (and probably lucky that no one really did much about steroid use?). He got lucky that someone took a chance and cast him despite his appearance and accent. He got lucky that voters elected him to governor, then that the legislature worked with him, and then that his infidelity didn't come out until after his term.

Similarly, you grandfather got lucky that he didn't die when his village was burned, that he didn't die in a work camp, that he could immigrate to the US, that someone gave him a job and wasn't in a community that hated Polish people for no reason. Your parents and you were lucky to be born to the families you were. There's less context about you/your father/your uncle, but I imagine there was a lot of luck of someone else giving you a chance involved.

As other posters have said - don't be upset that you got lucky! There's nothing wrong with being lucky. Success is a mix of luck and being able to take advantage of that luck - your preparation and hard work. Hopefully you use the luck that you got to help provide a bit of luck to someone else.

https://time.com/4779796/arnold-schwarzenegger-university-of...

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by nickysielicki on Monday May 18, 2020 @05:45PM (#23228737)
> Similarly, you grandfather got lucky that he didn't die when his village was burned, that he didn't die in a work camp, that he could immigrate to the US, that someone gave him a job and wasn't in a community that hated Polish people for no reason. Your parents and you were lucky to be born to the families you were. There's less context about you/your father/your uncle, but I imagine there was a lot of luck of someone else giving you a chance involved.

Thanks for this. You're right. You've made me realize that I'm probably falling victim to intergenerational information loss or just a lack of appreciation.

A couple years ago I sat down with my grandfather with a voice recorder and asked him a bunch of questions about what it was like when he was in Germany, when he immigrated, what he did once he got here.

He was lucky to be able to immigrate to the US. After the war, he worked for a while in an office for the German government (he actually still gets a pension check from the German government) doing paperwork for displaced citizens and helping them get visas to Australia and the US. He had all his paperwork worked out to go to Australia instead of the US and at the last minute he was able to get sponsorship in Chicago and was able to come here instead. I think the only reason that connection came through was because it was someone he helped immigrate earlier.

He was lucky that someone gave him a job. In fact, that's the exact expression he used when I asked him. If I asked him, the guy with the hardest cross to bear, he'd definitely attribute a lot of his life to getting lucky.

But my dad and uncle weren't lucky to get to a community that didn't hate Polish people. I've heard a story that my uncle and dad were beat up as they were walking home from school one day and my uncle had his head put through a window, just for being Polish.

I think it's all about context. My grandfather looks at what life would have been like if he was still in Poland and thinks, "Of course I'm lucky!" My dad looks at the kids he grew up around and thinks, "I didn't speak any English until the first grade. I'm lucky, but things could have been easier for me." And I think, "I'm just a normal American guy, things are as easy for me as they would be for anyone."

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by dragonwriter on Sunday May 17, 2020 @11:25PM (#23217993)
> I'm just trying to understand where it is that my family got lucky

Between the inputs and the outputs. For example:

> He came to the US and worked in the forges for Falk in Milwaukee. He didn't speak English, but he worked hard, lived responsibly, and paid for the education of his two children

Plenty of people at the same time put the same inputs of hard work and responsible living in, and got different outcomes due to forces they didn't control. The success of American elites (this is true of capitalism generally, and the greater prosperity of American capitalists compared to much of the rest of the developed West is due specifically to failing tomitigate this aspect of capitalism as much) is built on the precarious position of the working class.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by mc32 on Sunday May 17, 2020 @11:02PM (#23217860)
I think the dream has a couple of faces. One is the one marketed by companies interested in consumerists. They want the aspirational aspect so that people reach every further to attain this kind of goal. The other is the vision people in whose parents didn’t have it all but their children aspire to be more and to be part of the first class of dreamers. Now, part of this other aspect is that for many it’s a kind of dream. We wish it, but we may not achieve it this generation either, but maybe next.

That said, if enough people achieve this dream, the dram is fulfilled and there are no more dreamers because they’re all fat cats now.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by whiddershins on Sunday May 17, 2020 @09:32PM (#23217257)
I don't think anyone has ever said that it was universally available. What we tend to hope is true, is that the percentage of our population it applies to is growing, not shrinking.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by boomboomsubban on Sunday May 17, 2020 @11:11PM (#23217912)
Both economists largely agree with your given definition, and both agree that it is flagging. They disagree on the cause and subsequent attempt to reverse the trend.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by Swizec on Sunday May 17, 2020 @09:58PM (#23217404)
As someone who left a lower middle class upbringing in formerly communist Europe and arrived at upper middle class coastal USA life ... eh it’s doable. People are just lazy and like to bitch and moan and avoid responsibility for their lives.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by willis936 on Sunday May 17, 2020 @10:41PM (#23217693)
Spoken like someone who has no idea what they’re talking about.
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by Swizec on Monday May 18, 2020 @01:25AM (#23218686)
How so? I’m living proof that you can still pull off the social mobility part of the american dream.

Arrived in this country with some $3000 to my name, now here we are 5 years later I am little different than any other spoiled coastal US person.

Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by willis936 on Monday May 18, 2020 @09:03AM (#23221775)
Yes. I believe that someone rich enough to move from Russia (and the correct ethnicity) had only $3000. In those 5 years you also spent $100,000 on an education so that you could get a job that paid you well? Was an education not part of the “$3,000” or are you saying the American Dream is to be very white, gamble with your life, and be very lucky?
Re:Two leading economists disagree about the flagging Americ... by throwlaplace on Monday May 18, 2020 @09:54AM (#23222331)
you're a white guy that moved from slovenia with a degree already and $3000 in cash. slovenia isn't moldova or romania or ukraine - gdp per capita ppp is 36k. your $3000 is twice the median savings of black people and hispanics in this country

https://www.valuepenguin.com/banking/average-savings-account...

what social mobility? you were middle class and you're still middle class

my family actually immigrated as poor people (refugees) 30 years ago from a shit country (moldova) and we're all doing very well in tech now but that doesn't mean i'm blind to the inequalities faced by systematically marginalized people.