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Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by ilaksh on Friday May 15, 2020 @08:54AM (#23191588)
What is it that is actually preventing this from escalating to a hot war? It feels like we are just waiting for China to manufacture enough warships and nukes or killer drones or AGI with spiking neural networks or whatever can give them an edge so that a real war can start.

It's even a war in the comments section.

I don't think it's safe. How do we really know it can't progress to some kind of overt military activity?

Why are people not more concerned about this?

I get the impression that people think the best way to prevent a war is to keep doing things to hold them down. But that seems to be escalating tensions and not actually limiting them.

What is the plan for getting out of this? I hope that Elon hurries up with his Mars rockets so I can emmigrate before the whole planet turns into a complete bloody (literally) science fiction nightmare.

Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by logicchains on Friday May 15, 2020 @09:10AM (#23191735)
>What is it that is actually preventing this from escalating to a hot war?

The same thing that's always prevented nuclear-armed countries from going to war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction

Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by jotm on Friday May 15, 2020 @09:14AM (#23191781)
Uh, yeah, as long as it's not on their own lands, they could fight some real wars...
Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by dannyw on Friday May 15, 2020 @11:23AM (#23193218)
We tried letting China grow unchecked. Look at how that has turned out.

It is time for the hammer now.

Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by surfcao on Friday May 15, 2020 @12:02PM (#23193725)
What's the problem with China's growth? China uses to be a friend when they can only manufacture T-shirts and socks, now a threat when they can even do chips and aircraft? The foreign policy of the US is a failure, wars in mid east and anti-terrorsim has costed too much, and that gave China an opportunity to grow. You cannot blame China for this. The business practice need to be changed for sure, but let's hope there is no war.
Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by whytaka on Friday May 15, 2020 @04:01PM (#23196743)
Please refer here for some issues that come to mind: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23196719
Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by citrus1330 on Friday May 15, 2020 @11:53AM (#23193632)
Sometimes war is inevitable, if your modus operandi is to avoid war someone who does not have that qualm will use the threat of war to extort and dominate you.
Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by emiliobumachar on Friday May 15, 2020 @09:11AM (#23191749)
I'm all for colonizing Mars, but it will remain less hospitable than Earth even if we descend into total nuclear war.
Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by gpm on Friday May 15, 2020 @09:53AM (#23192160)
I don't think I agree. Mars has a lot of things going for it that Earth doesn't.

For one their are no explosions, or people with guns. On mars you don't have to worry about people trying to steal your shit because it's valuable (or "necessary for the national defense"), and you don't have to worry about being collateral damage during the war.

On mars there aren't earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, mudslides, tsunamis, floods, volcanoes, lightning strikes, forest fires, and basically any other natural disaster that I missed except sandstorms. When you build a static structure on mars you can expect it to last basically forever, when you build one on earth it has a relatively short halflife. When your static structures become extremely valuable and difficult to replace because you need them to grow your food and you don't have the manufacturing capability to build more, I'd rather be one mars.

On mars you can reliably avoid radiation by putting enough "stuff" (water, soil, whatever) between you and the sun. On earth after a nuclear war it would be coming from everywhere exposed to the atmosphere (in the shortish term).

On mars you get to plan for the hardships while the pre-nuclear-war earth manufacturing base is still functioning. On earth you don't know when the nuclear war is going to happen, or what portions of the earth it's going to glass, so that becomes much more difficult.

On the downside, the martian atmosphere is actually deadly to humans (since it's nearly a vacuum), while the post nuclear war atmosphere is likely only ... very hazardous. Mars has no native plants so you have to be entirely self sufficient inside your colonies, while the post-nuclear war earth colonies could forage for (mildly radioactive) food in emergencies.

Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by cryptonector on Friday May 15, 2020 @05:29PM (#23197683)
It takes two (or more) to have a war, but only one to start it. One party may not have a choice at all. I leave it to you to decide "who started it".
Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by jotm on Friday May 15, 2020 @09:08AM (#23191715)
Nothing's preventing it from escalating to war. The national defense agencies in all countries probably have plans if that happens... I believe and really hope that an actual war won't happen. There's too much to lose, and little to gain.

A technological cold war will likely happen, Huawei and other Chinese companies will just continue R&D and manufacturing on their own. In a way, the US is letting go of whatever control they had left and making it easier for them to form their own alliances in this matter. It will just polarize the world more... again, as always.

Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by nobody0 on Friday May 15, 2020 @11:00AM (#23192936)
"Wars are not meant to be won, they are meant to be continous" -- George Orwell
Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by patentatt on Friday May 15, 2020 @09:56AM (#23192205)
I'd even go so far as to say a hot war is inevitable. Not because of any particular reason, but because the US and China are the only superpowers left. And if there's one thing power doesn't like, it's sharing. My very simplified view is that war happens when more than one 'power' axis vies for control of some sort of a geographic area. We're at a point in history where the last remaining relevant geographic area is the whole world, and the primary axis of power are China and the US. I don't think humanity has the capability of avoiding war in such a situation.

I'll even venture into complete speculation, and posit that WWIII will be fought over, and largely in, Africa. In many ways Africa represents the last frontier on earth, with great natural resources but largely behind in many areas of development and not 'controlled' by either China or the US. South America would also be a potential hot zone, but it's too close to the US. China has realized this already and is investing heavily in Africa, while the US just in the last decade established Africom. Once the US' focus on the middle easy wanes a bit with oil decreasing in relevance, they'll turn their focus to somewhere else. The only reason the middle easy didn't turn into WWIII is because of the relatively powerful players in the area, including Israel, Saudi, Iran, and formerly Iraq. Large enough to hold their own, but not so large that they individually pose a threat to the US hegemony. That, and china wasn't really a relevant player in the world-war starting game until the 80's or 90's or so, and kind of missed the whole middle east war phase. But they're ahead of the game in Africa, and are establishing control there already. And as China transitions from developing country to rich country, they will, in turn, need overseas territories to vassalize themselves. So, there's my wild prediction, that WWIII will happen between the US and China as primary axis of power, sparked over something to do with Africa, right around the time when oil is no longer the US' middle-eastern siren song that it is today. Maybe in 20-30 years or so. Also around the time that millennials will be in the 'old guard', and have no living memory (on a broad, population-scale level) of how horrific war really is. Boomers had the WWII generation still hanging around to warn them off of WWIII, and they still nearly got us there.

Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by JohnTClark on Friday May 15, 2020 @09:18AM (#23191807)
It is better to hold them down while we, the west get stronger. They can escalate tensions all they want they still need warships, nukes, microchips, etc. to do something and as long as we stay better then them they won't do anything. In my opinion the best way to avoid a war is to have the bigger stick
Re:US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei by ilaksh on Friday May 15, 2020 @09:25AM (#23191877)
Maybe but at some point it turns into a case where people are constantly beating each other with sticks of various sizes. And then it's not civilized anymore.

So it seems like either that stick needs to get much more effective very quickly, or probably more reasonably at this point we need to try to de-escalate somehow.

In my opinion there is a very obvious lack of cultural and political integration which is inevitably going to be resolved. One way or another. I don't see a plan for doing it peacefully really being promoted by leaders. Which to me indicates that the leadership and overall awareness of the situation is inadequate. And probably we are going to be totally fucked by this ignorance and stupidity at some point.