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Re:San Diego Supervisor Says Only 6 of 194 Recorded Deaths ‘... by mullingitover on Thursday May 14, 2020 @08:34PM (#23187524)
What a teachable case of the 'no true Scotsman' fallacy.

Suppose we had packs of wild dogs roaming the streets. Sure, they'd maul some people to an early death, but a lot of those people had underlying conditions that made them unable to run as fast! We should only count the true mauling cases, the ones where clearly the packs of wild dogs were the only factor in their demise.

Re:San Diego Supervisor Says Only 6 of 194 Recorded Deaths ‘... by MR4D on Friday May 15, 2020 @12:03PM (#23193741)
So if I see the pack of dogs from 100 yards away, and die of a heart attack as a result, what was the cause of death?

And I'm asking that seriously, because somewhere someone lost their job last month, and had a heart attack. (probably several people given the immense number of layoffs)

What is the "cause" in that case?

I'd submit that their are many causes, and some are degrees-of-freedom away from the actual virus (like the heart attack above).

Statistics are definitely complicated, and assigning a cause of death is usually not easy (maybe for a gunshot it's easy), but what about the 90 year old guy with hardened arteries, diabetes, and cancer who dies of a heart attack while in the hospital being treated for the flu? Any yes, there are tons of COVID deaths like that (basically any nursing home death).

I'd bet that five years from now we'll still be arguing about this.

Re:San Diego Supervisor Says Only 6 of 194 Recorded Deaths ‘... by eiji on Thursday May 14, 2020 @09:11PM (#23187733)
Unfortunately your comparison leaves out a lot. We have a large percentage of covid19 infected people with no symthoms whatsoever. How does that square with your pack of wild dogs? I believe that is what is being pointed out here. You have asymptomatic elderly people dieing in their 70's and 80's, testing positive and their death being attributed to Covid19. It's not easy to tease that apart. But it's easy to dismiss as unreasonable to say. Asking if 20% of those death shouldn't be attributed to Covid19 is a valid question.
Re:San Diego Supervisor Says Only 6 of 194 Recorded Deaths ‘... by Analemma_ on Thursday May 14, 2020 @09:42PM (#23187917)
We have a very reliable baseline number on how many people die per day. It’s completely reasonable to assume that all deaths in excess of that number are, directly or indirectly, caused by Covid.
Re:San Diego Supervisor Says Only 6 of 194 Recorded Deaths ‘... by salmon30salmon on Thursday May 14, 2020 @09:47PM (#23187954)
No, we do not. Because every. single. other. thing. in society has changed in the past three months. We have evidence of people refusing to call emergency services due to fear of contracting covid. We have evidence of an increase in death that _can't_ be attributed to covid. There is really no comparison between now and last year at this time. Literally everything is different.
Re:San Diego Supervisor Says Only 6 of 194 Recorded Deaths ‘... by Analemma_ on Friday May 15, 2020 @11:12AM (#23193062)
> We have evidence of people refusing to call emergency services due to fear of contracting covid.

Which is indirectly because of Covid, that's my whole point.

Re:San Diego Supervisor Says Only 6 of 194 Recorded Deaths ‘... by salmon30salmon on Friday May 15, 2020 @01:10PM (#23194592)
That is from our _response_ to Covid. One is within our control.
Re:San Diego Supervisor Says Only 6 of 194 Recorded Deaths ‘... by mullingitover on Friday May 15, 2020 @02:05PM (#23195306)
Let's say you rob a bank, and you get in a gunfight with the police. If the police accidentally shoot a bystander, you are charged with their homicide. That's because you were the root cause of that person being shot.

The same goes for coronavirus deaths - ultimately the excess mortality is due to the virus, even when those deaths are not directly attributable.

We do the same thing when calculating hurricane death tolls - you don't have to be hit by a flying tree to have your death count as a hurricane death, you could just as easily die because the power was out and your ventilator failed, or because your insulin supply ran out.

Re:San Diego Supervisor Says Only 6 of 194 Recorded Deaths ‘... by jshevek on Friday May 15, 2020 @01:21PM (#23194731)
No, this is a misapplication of the fallacy. In a NTS fallacy, there is an existing definition accepted by all involved. A claim is made of an intrinsic characteristic, contrary evidence presented, then the definition is changed to discount the evidence.

I don't agree with the '6 cases' conclusion, but in this case, we do not have a universal accepted definition as a starting point. Instead, there is serious and valid question of how to evaluate causality when numerous factors contribute to an outcome.