More important than simple probability is the “expectancy value”, which is roughly spoken (and cumulatively) the probability multiplied by the effect when the probability comes to pass.

I'm confused what this comment is saying - are you just trying to say that someone getting killed by a car is really really bad? If so, I agree.

I've never heard of "expectancy value" in my life - it's definitely not a standard probability term.

I just translated the German term Erwartungswert wrong. The English term seems to be “expected value”, and it’s basic enough that you learn it in high school.

There aren't any self driving cars on the road that don't have a safety driver, and the ones that are out there get confused all the time. The Uber one had a software dev turn off the lidar sensor to test the computer vision at night and it ended up killing a woman crossing the street.

Waymo/Cruise and Uber aren't even in the same class and as I said, Waymo/Cruise cars go thousands of miles without driver intervention.

Waymo cars go 11,000+ miles without driver intervention on average.

I would encourage doing actual research into this subject, rather than relying on your gut or the news articles you read.

Spare me.

Most self-driving is done in warm climates, in a circle. These companies are amassing thousands of empty miles on the same streets every day to impress people who don't know any better.

I lived on a branch of the main Google circuit, and often they were the only traffic for most of the day. Even saw three Google vehicles in a line, but two were more common.

What's the value of "self-driving" with no weather, traffic or route variation? PR and regulatory filing stats.

I don't understand. There are self driving cars in SF. I saw one today. It is/ was raining.

There was a driver, but I'm fairly certain that the drivers are not actively driving but are legally required to be there.

Last time cruise made a report about disengagements (where the safety driver had to take over) it was one every 5000 miles driven. That's 1 crash the car was prevented from every 5000 miles. Humans crash once per 70000 miles.

> That's 1 crash the car was prevented from every 5000 miles.

What? That's not at all what disengagements mean

you don't know what a disengagement is.

2 year old driving in Moscow after snowfall https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx08yRsR9ow

I would gladly pay for a full self driving feature even if I had to drive when it was raining.

Waymo is running self driving cars without safety drivers. They also ordered 20,000+ cars and bought a factory to install the sensors on the cars.

Source on your Uber "fact"?