LedgerX Omni provides US-regulated Bitcoin options trading. Pretty sure I saw some action in high strikes so go forth and trade.

You cant see price data without creating an account that requires a social security number and government ID, which is a bit suspicious. Looking at a different, larger exchange, I see virtually no action to be had at high strike prices: https://www.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=BTC-25DEC20

Call it suspicious or whatever you want, but they are licensed in the US. My experience with their platform is that cater to much more passive investors than the typical crypto exchange. For example, people who want to hodl but sell some OTM calls to generate income from their holdings.

According to my theory based on BTC history the next peak will be $225038 or a 1020% increase over the previous peak. That's kind of conservative. My last estimate for the next peak was only $8903 but it hit $20089 or 1681% increase over the previous peak. I don't own any BTC but I just did this little sheet for fun lol :) also I don't try to predict when this happens, just a very rough estimate of the next peak level based on its previous history.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qgqvFR6HeVNkw2fxLgdr...

The problem with that analysis is that it assumes past performance has something fundamental to do with future performance - it takes a lot more investment to move the price of BTC from $10k to $100k than it did to move it from $0.10 to $1.

Apple stock has increased 100x in the past 15 years, but that doesn't mean it will increase 100x in the next 15 years (which would put its market cap at approximately 5x US GDP).

2017 was definitely unexpected. I assumed the % change since previous peak would have gone down each time as your theory would suggest instead of up nearly 3x as much. The interesting thing is that the number of bitcoins in circulation (currently only 18,375,312) has grown so slowly and steadily as it is designed to do. I'm curious how many bitcoins are lost forever in inaccessible wallets.

Have you tried to do this same analysis on other commodities, securities, etc?

Nope have not. When I started this sheet back in the day I considered it a new modern currency actually, it was before the government started taxing it as if it were a stock, etc. It really is nothing like any existing stock, security and should not be compared to those.

I usually just go long on stocks, securities.

I suppose my instinct is to think just because you were right once or twice about BTC using this model doesn't mean you'll be right about it going forward. What intrinsically about this model should give me confidence in it?

My level of confidence can be described as (confidence != 0) lol. Really the only thing that will make it continue is if the scarcity continues to increase and it continues to be used to trade for things then it should continue to rise but I don't think zeroing out is possible.

I have a little bit of BTC, so you and every other HN reader should dump your net worth into it ASAP.

It’s a commodity like gold, with mathemagical transfer fees and a fallback quasi decentralized interface of energy purchaser mining companies.