The problem with that analysis is that it assumes past performance has something fundamental to do with future performance - it takes a lot more investment to move the price of BTC from $10k to $100k than it did to move it from $0.10 to $1.
Apple stock has increased 100x in the past 15 years, but that doesn't mean it will increase 100x in the next 15 years (which would put its market cap at approximately 5x US GDP).
2017 was definitely unexpected. I assumed the % change since previous peak would have gone down each time as your theory would suggest instead of up nearly 3x as much. The interesting thing is that the number of bitcoins in circulation (currently only 18,375,312) has grown so slowly and steadily as it is designed to do. I'm curious how many bitcoins are lost forever in inaccessible wallets.
Re:Bitcoin Halving Just Occured
by odonnellryan on Monday May 11, 2020 @06:42PM
(#23148006)
Have you tried to do this same analysis on other commodities, securities, etc?
Nope have not. When I started this sheet back in the day I considered it a new modern currency actually, it was before the government started taxing it as if it were a stock, etc. It really is nothing like any existing stock, security and should not be compared to those.
I usually just go long on stocks, securities.
Re:Bitcoin Halving Just Occured
by odonnellryan on Monday May 11, 2020 @08:44PM
(#23149317)
I suppose my instinct is to think just because you were right once or twice about BTC using this model doesn't mean you'll be right about it going forward. What intrinsically about this model should give me confidence in it?
My level of confidence can be described as (confidence != 0) lol. Really the only thing that will make it continue is if the scarcity continues to increase and it continues to be used to trade for things then it should continue to rise but I don't think zeroing out is possible.
I have a little bit of BTC, so you and every other HN reader should dump your net worth into it ASAP.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qgqvFR6HeVNkw2fxLgdr...