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Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by legulere on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @03:57PM (#23095569)
Herd immunity hasn't been achieved anywhere and with around a half percent infection fatality rate that doesn't seem like something you would like to get to.
Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by busymom0 on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @04:07PM (#23095677)
It’s lower than half percent now. Around 0.2-0.3% and probably going to go even more lower.
Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by saiya-jin on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @04:16PM (#23095769)
any source? I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks, but these are just words, no hard data
Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by busymom0 on Thursday May 07, 2020 @01:52AM (#23100094)
Source from April 25:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-yor...

> With 271,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu.

0.5% in New York as of April 25. Since New York is the worst case so far in US, overall, the fatality rate drops to 0.2-0.3%.

You say:

> I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks

That's exactly why the true mortality rate is much LOWER. Mortality rate's denominator is supposed to be the true number of infected. So asymptomatic and others with anti-bodies means the true denominator is much higher and thus the true mortality rate is much lower.

Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by vkou on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @04:26PM (#23095873)
It's much higher than than. New York had an ~1% IFR.
Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by busymom0 on Thursday May 07, 2020 @01:52AM (#23100096)
Source from April 25:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-yor...

> With 271,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu.

0.5% in New York as of April 25. Since New York is the worst case so far in US, overall, the fatality rate drops to 0.2-0.3%.

You say:

> I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks

That's exactly why the true mortality rate is much LOWER. Mortality rate's denominator is supposed to be the true number of infected. So asymptomatic and others with anti-bodies means the true denominator is much higher and thus the true mortality rate is much lower.

Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by sergiotapia on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @04:14PM (#23095744)
It's much much lower than that now. The numbers we've been fed to justify this quarantine are not real.
Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by macspoofing on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @04:27PM (#23095877)
Just stop. We've seen what happens when this virus is let loose. We've seen it collapse the Italian healthcare system. It almost came close to collapsing the healthcare system in NYC. So it isn't just a big conspiracy to quarantine everyone. The initial numbers were higher, but that's expected given the lack of data. The new numbers are better but still flawed. We won't know the true infection rate and the death toll for a while still, but the models are constantly refined.