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Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by busymom0 on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @04:07PM (#23095677)
It’s lower than half percent now. Around 0.2-0.3% and probably going to go even more lower.
Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by saiya-jin on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @04:16PM (#23095769)
any source? I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks, but these are just words, no hard data
Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by busymom0 on Thursday May 07, 2020 @01:52AM (#23100094)
Source from April 25:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-yor...

> With 271,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu.

0.5% in New York as of April 25. Since New York is the worst case so far in US, overall, the fatality rate drops to 0.2-0.3%.

You say:

> I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks

That's exactly why the true mortality rate is much LOWER. Mortality rate's denominator is supposed to be the true number of infected. So asymptomatic and others with anti-bodies means the true denominator is much higher and thus the true mortality rate is much lower.

Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by vkou on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @04:26PM (#23095873)
It's much higher than than. New York had an ~1% IFR.
Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' by busymom0 on Thursday May 07, 2020 @01:52AM (#23100096)
Source from April 25:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-yor...

> With 271,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu.

0.5% in New York as of April 25. Since New York is the worst case so far in US, overall, the fatality rate drops to 0.2-0.3%.

You say:

> I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks

That's exactly why the true mortality rate is much LOWER. Mortality rate's denominator is supposed to be the true number of infected. So asymptomatic and others with anti-bodies means the true denominator is much higher and thus the true mortality rate is much lower.