Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Governments Want It to or Not

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by JoeMayoBot on Saturday May 02, 2020 @06:21PM (#23055361)

Driving through Las Vegas, you would hardly know there was still a mandatory quarantine. Stores and restaurants have big signs saying "Open", the roads have normal traffic, and there's normal sidewalk activity too. Yet, the Governor is regularly on TV talking about how the state is still in quarantine and the plan to gradually reopen. What is true is that casinos are shut down and large public activities, like concerts and sporting events, aren't happening. I won't speak to the morality because people have wildly different opinions, but the reality is that a lot of people refuse to quarantine any more.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by taeric on Saturday May 02, 2020 @06:32PM (#23055417)

Did Vegas see a large outbreak? It is actually one of the places that convinced me before that we have a bad understanding of this virus. No model of community spread made any sense as to how it was not in Vegas.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by JoeMayoBot on Saturday May 02, 2020 @06:47PM (#23055489)

It's really hard to tell because it doesn't sound like there's reliable testing to verify. A recent official count was around 5000 or so. My gut feeling is that a lot of people have had it and didn't know for sure. Given the amount of international visitors and the fact that we have a sizable Chinese business community, it seems like the numbers are potentially higher than what is officially announced.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by perl4ever on Saturday May 02, 2020 @09:13PM (#23056138)

I happened to see a map of covid over the whole US, and my first reaction was to remember the xkcd about how a lot of maps are just relabeled population maps.

However, there was a slight difference between it and a generic population map - it is very skewed towards the eastern US and coast.

Overall, it seems (and this was suggested in other things I've read) that covid in the US has been spread primarily from Europe and not Asia. If it had come from Asia more, surely it would have hit California and the west coast harder.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by joshuamorton on Saturday May 02, 2020 @10:09PM (#23056335)

The other bit is that west coast cities responded earlier. Seattle got hot early but locked down pretty hard, SF locked down before it got bad, and both locked down well before nyc.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by perl4ever on Saturday May 02, 2020 @10:10PM (#23056342)

It seems like there is a surge in California now though.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by taeric on Saturday May 02, 2020 @10:58PM (#23056568)

With how skewed this is to older population, it really is tough to just look at populations as a whole. NYC had more people over sixty than Seattle has people.

It is odd. This is far far more dangerous than a flu if you are older than sixty. More than just looking at population level IFR implies. Not so clear cut off you are under sixty. Simply put, we don't have the data to say.

I fully agree that we don't want the data the hard way.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by Libeste on Saturday May 02, 2020 @10:03PM (#23056318)

An outbreak in Vegas would be more a case of tourists infecting each other than the residents of the town getting sick.

And if you've caught something in Vegas and spread the disease across your hometown, you're probably not going to admit it. This virus is no exception.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by JoeMayoBot on Sunday May 03, 2020 @06:32PM (#23062440)

There's no evidence to suggest that the government would intentionally lie about numbers, let alone in Las Vegas. If anything, it's likely due to ignorance and lack of resources in testing.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by hcknwscommenter on Monday May 04, 2020 @01:26PM (#23070807)

It's not about the government lying. It's about individuals visiting vegas, leaving after a few days, coming back and then having to come clean that they were feeling a little under the weather when they got on the plane (which could arguably be manslaughter depending on the exact circumstances).

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 on Saturday May 02, 2020 @11:27PM (#23056652)

What you’re saying is true for all major cities in the country.

[ Parent | on HN ]