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A comment on Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Governments Want It to or Not. Parent comment

Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by JoeMayoBot on Saturday May 02, 2020 @06:47PM (#23055489)
It's really hard to tell because it doesn't sound like there's reliable testing to verify. A recent official count was around 5000 or so. My gut feeling is that a lot of people have had it and didn't know for sure. Given the amount of international visitors and the fact that we have a sizable Chinese business community, it seems like the numbers are potentially higher than what is officially announced.
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Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by perl4ever on Saturday May 02, 2020 @09:13PM (#23056138)
I happened to see a map of covid over the whole US, and my first reaction was to remember the xkcd about how a lot of maps are just relabeled population maps.

However, there was a slight difference between it and a generic population map - it is very skewed towards the eastern US and coast.

Overall, it seems (and this was suggested in other things I've read) that covid in the US has been spread primarily from Europe and not Asia. If it had come from Asia more, surely it would have hit California and the west coast harder.

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Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by joshuamorton on Saturday May 02, 2020 @10:09PM (#23056335)
The other bit is that west coast cities responded earlier. Seattle got hot early but locked down pretty hard, SF locked down before it got bad, and both locked down well before nyc.
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Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by perl4ever on Saturday May 02, 2020 @10:10PM (#23056342)
It seems like there is a surge in California now though.
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Re:Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Government... by taeric on Saturday May 02, 2020 @10:58PM (#23056568)
With how skewed this is to older population, it really is tough to just look at populations as a whole. NYC had more people over sixty than Seattle has people.

It is odd. This is far far more dangerous than a flu if you are older than sixty. More than just looking at population level IFR implies. Not so clear cut off you are under sixty. Simply put, we don't have the data to say.

I fully agree that we don't want the data the hard way.

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