> Suicides should be on the uptick.

could go both ways really. If you are stuck at home with your old folks (probably the case for young people at risk of suicide right now), much less chance to commit suicide with total privacy in the current circumstances.

Also, there's usually less suicides when things go really bad in the society at large, because it puts things in perspective more than any other time in terms of human suffering.

Also I suppose if you are suffering through a pandemic and are suicidal your first thought would probably be hopefully it will all be over soon and I don't have to do anything but be unlucky.

That's not how suicidal ideation works, unfortunately.

I'm not sure it doesn't, at least at some times for some people, given my own experiences with it.

Many aren't going to doctor visits, aren't exercising, are eating more etc etc. It all adds up.

I guess Covid is like a really, really bad flu season showing up, in addition to the existing one. So when all is done. we'll really see. Flu does kill a lot of old and infirm people

I can imagine some of the effects of all this to show up much later

For example school children are losing months of school education, and they aren't going to get it back.

Studies in developing countries have shown every extra month to significantly improve children's final IQ and lifetime earnings.

If you look at the cumulative distribution, around week 11 is where things started and the peak is at week 14, during week 16 the slope is already less steep.

I think it would be quite remarkable if people managed to die from 5 weeks of eating at home without exercise.

On the other hand there are much fewer traffic accidents, much less pollution and people aren't going to bars and getting into fights. So I'm not sure if the net effect of the lockdown on mortality is actually expected to be positive or negative.

> So I'm not sure if the net effect of the lockdown on mortality is actually expected to be positive or negative.

Wouldn't this kind of graphs precisely answer the question, since deaths are not just related to COVID19 only?

The main effect we expect to see on excess mortality is not from the lockdown, but from the overloading of the health care systems.

No, because you don't know how many of these deaths are COVID19-related deaths that just weren't counted in the official figures for some reason.

> much less pollution

Unless the pollution was incredibly concentrated, wouldn't the effects show much later?

Yes, maybe fewer asthma cases and related deaths over the next decades but not sure if a few months of less pollution are sufficient.

Speaking of pollution:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-poll...

Title: Strong correlation between Covid deaths and high air pollution

"Research shows almost 80% of deaths across four countries were in most polluted regions"

Study: 'Assessing nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels as a contributing factor to coronavirus (COVID-19) fatality'

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138605

I haven't read those studies but I do hope they controlled for population density...

I'm sure the net effect is less people dying, of the pandemic or not, than without the lockdowns.

> I feel like I would have a much higher threshold before looking for (Covid-unrelated) medical help.

In fact, our health authorities have insisted for people to come to the ER, because apparently the number of non-covid emergencies (like strokes) is unreasonably low.

To put that in context, in the UK it appears about half the excess mortality doesn't mention COVID-19 on the death certificate at all.

Of the half that does, this is basically a grep over the contents, so "not COVID-19 related" would fall into that bucket. Of the certificates where the disease is definitely implicated, that still doesn't mean someone died because of the virus, only that the person might have been infected at the time of death. Might, because no test is required to merely mention it on a death certificate. At time of death, because this disease targets the old and weak so much, that very often it's unclear how a cause of death should be classified - in a way it was just someone's time to go. However, the UK made COVID-19 a notifiable disease, so it gets reported to the government in every case over and above other causes of death.

Thus for the UK we can safely say that more people are being killed because of the lockdown than because of COVID, which is pretty shocking.

This can be hard to see because UK excess mortality has gone far above the flu seasons of the past 5 years. But this is a bit misleading. It appears that the UK basically didn't have a flu season in 2017: excess mortality didn't go outside normal variance. Whereas in the rest of Europe 2017 saw a bad-ish flu season, which COVID so far has merely matched in terms of deaths.

That could be. On the other hands some countries that are in lockdown like Germany (although maybe not as strict as some other european states) are seeing no excess mortality at all, which makes the hypothesis unlikely.