Re:Federal Reserve balance sheet trends
by AnimalMuppet on Thursday April 23, 2020 @01:23PM
(#22958387)
OK, but the peak was 8 years ago. So you can say that gold outperformed the S&P over 20 years. But you can't say that over any span less than 8 years, and maybe not even over 10. So, when you say "I don't expect this trend stopping", I see a trend that already stopped - that stopped 8 years ago, in fact.
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Sure, you're both right, I didn't really explain why I think it's we're in the part of the business cycle where gold performs better.
As these cycles take a long time, it's better to look at long term charts, like this:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-...
Gold is an asset that was able to keep its value for 5000 years (unlike fiat currencies), and it has to be mined, it can't just be created in an excel spreadsheet in the FED. If you put these things together, it makes sense, that having a new high every few years is normal (just like with stocks).
Gold performs well in highly inflationary environments, so the question is whether the FED stops printing money, or it will just print much more than it did recently (about 4T). To me it looks like it just has gotten started.
Also important to consider what it's being valued in. The USD index is based on a basket of several other currencies, for example. Finding an objective comparison point to determine what is pegged to Things of Real Value to Most Humans is multivariable to say the least. Gold seems to be more stable over the long-term with regards to things like houses, suits, food staples and such.