Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications for universal testing

Re:Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications fo... by usaar333 on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @04:02PM (#22882346)

An average age of 59 on the Diamond Princess (1.8% CFR) is not representative of the general population. This is a substantially more at-risk group.

Germany and Singapore are also missing many infections. A recent serological study in Germany actually argued for 0.4%.

You are correct that IFR is skewed by who the population is and what interventions are done. But then again, so is the often cited flu benchmark (where we have targeted vaccinations of at-risk groups).

(And age is a huge thing to be aware of skewing the data. e.g. the pediatric IFR from covid is on the order of seasonal flu)

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Re:Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications fo... by zzzzzzzza on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @04:21PM (#22882562)

https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/fyf0yh/megathread... you mean this serological study?

And taiwan is at 1.5% CFR as well?

And still 60 or so unresolved diamond princess cases with ~7 in critical condition?

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Re:Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications fo... by usaar333 on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @04:45PM (#22882817)

Yes, I agree it is preliminary and not too much should be drawn off it.

Every country is missing large numbers of cases, so CFR doesn't mean much - randomized testing is what is needed.

Imperial College's paper (linked above which gives a 0.7% population IFR) uses Diamond Princess as an input. The relative risk ratio they give for someone age 70 (mean age on Diamond Princess) is something like 4.5x (IFR ~3%), so you'd natively guess about 80 deaths from the 2,666 passengers.

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Re:Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications fo... by zzzzzzzza on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @04:50PM (#22882883)

69 is the mean age of the passengers, the crew was like less than or equal 39 (about 2/3 passengers 1/3 crew I think)

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Re:Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications fo... by usaar333 on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @05:01PM (#22883028)

hence why I divided by the passenger, not total, count

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Re:Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications fo... by usaar333 on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @10:18PM (#22885416)

whoops, sorry it's 567 infections in passengers with 13 deaths. 2.3% CFR. Expected IFR 3% from Imperial College (17)

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