Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications for universal testing

Re:Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications fo... by usaar333 on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @04:45PM (#22882817)

Yes, I agree it is preliminary and not too much should be drawn off it.

Every country is missing large numbers of cases, so CFR doesn't mean much - randomized testing is what is needed.

Imperial College's paper (linked above which gives a 0.7% population IFR) uses Diamond Princess as an input. The relative risk ratio they give for someone age 70 (mean age on Diamond Princess) is something like 4.5x (IFR ~3%), so you'd natively guess about 80 deaths from the 2,666 passengers.

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Re:Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications fo... by zzzzzzzza on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @04:50PM (#22882883)

69 is the mean age of the passengers, the crew was like less than or equal 39 (about 2/3 passengers 1/3 crew I think)

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Re:Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications fo... by usaar333 on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @05:01PM (#22883028)

hence why I divided by the passenger, not total, count

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Re:Covid-19 at a homeless shelter in Boston: Implications fo... by usaar333 on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @10:18PM (#22885416)

whoops, sorry it's 567 infections in passengers with 13 deaths. 2.3% CFR. Expected IFR 3% from Imperial College (17)

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