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A comment on California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]. Parent comment

Re:California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf] by throwawaysea on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @11:53PM (#22874334)
No, 2% is the case fatality rate. The true overall mortality is far lower. Germany did a randomized test recently of a town and calculated that 2% of the population is actively infected, 14% possess antibodies indicative of a current/prior infection, and overall 15% have been infected at some point. Once this broader testing was completed, the overal mortality was found to only be 0.37%. For comparison, a typical flu season is 0.1%.

https://www.tagesschau.de/regional/nordrheinwestfalen/corona...

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Re:California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf] by morsch on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @07:08AM (#22876414)
For comparison, a typical flu season is 0.1%.

That is incorrect. The worst flu wave to hit Germany in the last 20 years, 2017/2018, killed appoximately 25000 people (excess mortality). That's 0.03%, and it's not typical. Often, the number is much lower.

Note also that the results from the Gangelt study you're referring to are preliminary; there's a press release but no paper yet, not even in preprint.

https://edoc.rki.de/handle/176904/6253

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Re:California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf] by throwaway237683 on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @06:20PM (#22883783)
> That's 0.03%, and it's not typical. Often, the number is much lower.

0.03% or 0.1% or 0.66%, the number is low enough to be perceived as not too dangerous by general populace. Contrast that with 13% mortality rate for Italy that was widely spun a month ago. Now _that_ was scary!

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